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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

CMC is always the coldest model ! :(

Classic class of the USRA screwzone thanks to lack of surface cooling...which it shows on th e 12z run as well......although i think it's out to lunch on that. Canadian is sort of by itself with the degree of warmth/higher dewpoints in the lowest 50mb. Other models are showing there are no appreciable difference in airmass where i'm at and the upstate/west ga in the low levels ...so i would expect similar cooling here after onset as everywhere else. . So in a rare exception, i'm tossing that depiction of warmer surface temps here if there is that much precip. Still it is painful as hell seeing it and always a concern in such a setup. I'll be heading northwest if it actually becomes a problem. 

here is the 12z uk. 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

That's a concern, in my opinion, for RDU if they lose nucleation. 

I think it matters on how much initial cold air we can get in place before the storm. Right now it's not looking like much, but dew points will be in the teens right across the boarder into Virginia. If we can get some type of push of that air farther south this could become a good storm.

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13 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

I've seen this time and time again. Climo says anywhere north and west of I85  I-40 have a chance to see flakes fly. South and east, well, you know the drill. Especially in December. I mean come on, it's a struggle even in mid January.

FYP. 

None of us should legitimately be expecting a snowstorm the first week in December outside the mountains and south of Virginia.  What's kind of encouraging though is that we're here at the beginning of a decent pattern looking at a potential Miller A storm in the beginning of December.  And just a week ago we were saying how dry the pattern may turn out to be.  Now we've got a Miller A storm just a tad too warm for accumulations.  Makes you think some time frame between this weekend and the middle of the month we may actually have a chance to score an advisory event in December! That's pretty remarkable. 

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35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

What did DG say on ch 4 at noon

I saw him this morning, very early - he really didn't say anything - I think he quietly mentioned, "...there is a small chance for a rain/snow mix in the mountains..."

Honestly, Dale Gilbert needs to retire - he is the ultimate snooze-fest. I'm waiting for an actual snow threat (during the work week!) and watch him utter the word "snow". 

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The NAM is coming in with a “Winter Lovers” extreme... I’ll feel more confident if the NAM doesn’t change and the GFS confirms... GSP is limiting 1 inch or more to the mountains right now... Hey I’m excited to be seeing this pattern like this with a mostly positive tilted trough.... 

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

FYP. 

None of us should legitimately be expecting a snowstorm the first week in December outside the mountains and south of Virginia.  What's kind of encouraging though is that we're here at the beginning of a decent pattern looking at a potential Miller A storm in the beginning of December.  And just a week ago we were saying how dry the pattern may turn out to be.  Now we've got a Miller A storm just a tad too warm for accumulations.  Makes you think some time frame between this weekend and the middle of the month we may actually have a chance to score an advisory event in December! That's pretty remarkable. 

Well its a good thing this will be happening the 2nd week of December !

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