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December 8-16 Clipper Regime


Hoosier

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46 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Last night's Euro was the most robust I've seen it yet in showing a clipper train.  Wouldn't take much for one of them to become more significant as we get closer.  Hope trends continue.  

I still think it's dicey to get a more sig clipper since both the GFS and CMC show only the one on Friday to have any potential of being decent, with all others being relatively weak. Although it is clippers, which can go either way in an instant, but I'm not terribly optimistic. However I hope that I am pleasantly surprised by some of these. 

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10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Clipper this weekend looks like a good 1-3 for most people (not counting the LES) 

This has some decent lift, though fairly transient.  I would agree with that general range of amounts at this point.  Let's hope for some better trends.

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This has some decent lift, though fairly transient.  I would agree with that general range of amounts at this point.  Let's hope for some better trends.

I think that's an uptick from prior GFS runs, at least for inland SMI areas. Good trends, but it's still a global and not fully capable with LES parameters. Especially wrt moisture off the lakes themselves (compare GRR's map with 12-18" in NMI just for next 2 days for example). Eagerly awaiting till we get into short-ranger models. Expecting positive things from them. Also, a Clipper could come in with better overall moisture. It's not like it's the dead of late January.

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Clipper for Saturday has beefed up. Starting to get excited for our first blanket of snow since mid-late March. Might see some good squalls tmrw first. Have already had plenty of flurries, I'm ready to shovel.

My yard is a mess with leaves.  Want to get it cleaned up before the weekend snow but I guess I'll be outside in the dark lol  

NAM and GFS are at odds. 

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.7c2e90472a9dd952e918c8126baedcbb.png

snku_acc.us_mw-1.thumb.png.64db118957720327ee618b6468a7ec49.png

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6 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Not sure how accurate these graphics are yet. Only been checking them out for a couple weeks.

image.png

It's on qpf. If the euro qpf ends up correct than that snow is all too low. Don't know what the ratios will be like, and you never want to go too crazy with them ahead of time, but no way will they be 10-1.

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24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's on qpf. If the euro qpf ends up correct than that snow is all too low. Don't know what the ratios will be like, and you never want to go too crazy with them ahead of time, but no way will they be 10-1.

DGZ depth looks decent but not too extreme.  I'd go better than 10:1 but not something too crazy.  Exception could be near the lakes but I'm mainly talking about the system snows.

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DGZ depth looks decent but not too extreme.  I'd go better than 10:1 but not something too crazy.  Exception could be near the lakes but I'm mainly talking about the system snows.

I live in Fulton Illinois, about 3 hours from Chicago. I am more closer to Davenport, Iowa. I am hoping and praying for snow.

Sent from my LGL82VL using Tapatalk

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Interesting point from New England forum, about no longer having any 12z soundings from Alaska, due to NOAA budget cuts. In other words, focus on 00z runs instead, in situations where there are waves or vorts or other energy in and around Alaska.

Not sure if it will make much of a difference for these upcoming clippers...but could be useful to know for future reference. 

 

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17 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Interesting point from New England forum, about no longer having any 12z soundings from Alaska, due to NOAA budget cuts. In other words, focus on 00z runs instead, in situations where there are waves or vorts or other energy in and around Alaska.

Not sure if it will make much of a difference for these upcoming clippers...but could be useful to know for future reference. 

 

Degradation of weather data continues, it is going to take something catastrophic to change the minds of idiots in Washington.

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37 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Interesting point from New England forum, about no longer having any 12z soundings from Alaska, due to NOAA budget cuts. In other words, focus on 00z runs instead, in situations where there are waves or vorts or other energy in and around Alaska.

Not sure if it will make much of a difference for these upcoming clippers...but could be useful to know for future reference. 

 

Wow. I didn't even know that. I guess they want to set forecasting back a few decades.

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