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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

12z Euro vs 0z Euro

12z:

ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_11.thumb.png.72bad8bf4dddc228e4d380e2a11c3127.png

0z

ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_13.thumb.png.53e4928f955cd600b9e903160395f14f.png

Clearly farther NW than 0z, but not by an awful lot. 

The precip made it further NW than that panel on the 0z run though. Look at 0z, valid 18z Sat.

The edge of the precip shield did tick further NW (slightly) on the 12z run, but the heavier stuff really didn't.

 

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I believe the Euro will come around. Maybe not to the extent of the Ukie or GEM, but it will eventually throw something light, at least, our way. If not, the rest of the run looks to have a few more possibilities, so we wait. Either way, this is the best model war we've had in a long time.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I believe the Euro will come around. Maybe not to the extent of the Ukie or GEM, but it will eventually throw something light, at least, our way. If not, the rest of the run looks to have a few more possibilities, so we wait. Either way, this is the best model war we've had in a long time.

first flakes sir...all that matters

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It will be the same thoughts as always from Bernie. Somehow the NE will get blitzed.

Eastern NE will probably end up getting a solid snowfall. The "improvement" on the 12z Euro was better for them- looks like the NS energy phases, but just a tad too late. Even so, just south of Boston gets a few inches.

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Just now, StormchaserChuck said:

46 and the cold front has passed

actually, I hope you're right that it doesn't get that cold, just cold enough for snow

the very cold proggs won't verify, but if they did, we wouldn't have a shot at snow

the weaker cold influx is what can give us the snow

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The mean snowfall & precip are worse then 0z, unless I'm reading it wrong. Big run for SW VA/Delmarva/NC though.

I don’t know about the snow maps, but the slower and more consolidated and westward low can’t be anything bad for us. 

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I think we're entering model convergence time.  The easternmost models are shifting west, and the westernmost model (the GGEM) shifed east.  I'll go out on a limb and say they meet in the middle, probably closer to the Euro's current track than the GGEM's.

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Jason and I struggled how to handle the discussion of the snow threat for Saturday. Both the 12Z GFS and Euro keep the wave off the coast far enough east to keep the precipitation south and east of us.The Euro verifies better than other models but is not always right. By contrast, the UKMET at 72 has a low tucked up against the coast of the Carolinas. It's forecast would support a pretty snowy Saturday. For non mets, its scores are second only to the Euro and it forecast has support from the Canadian model, the worst model of the 4. The models are at war. Not surprisingly, most GEFS members favor the GFS and Euro solutions but have trended a bit stronger and clsoer to shore on the 12Z run than the previous one. 

We're leaning towards the Euro solution but there is too much uncertainty to completely discount the UKMET. The flatter Euro solution is somewhat dependent on the strength of a shortwave that rotates around the Canadian vortex which helps keep flow from backing enough to allow the precipitation work into our area. Weaken that feature and strengthen the next shortwave in the stream that drops to the Great Lakes by 72 hours and the Euro solution would be different, possibly more in line with the UKMET or Canadian.   I don't trust the handling of those northern stream impulses as in the past I've been burned by them.

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