Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I wouldn't be surprised if the big dig into the SW ends up being persistent for a time. Makes sense. They've basically had a static ridge for a few weeks. The rubber band is snapping back to even things out. That bad part for us is with a +nao, the SE ridge will flex more than we want. Ens guidance is definitely moving towards that type of config hanging around vs hit and run like when it first showed up a few days ago. 

The silver lining is the cold loading pattern in canada is pretty strong so the way out of the ridge/warmth can be abrupt. Much better to have an unfavorable pattern with a quick way out instead of an AK or goa vortex roasting Canada. That's a long way out. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Work keeps getting in the way of looking at weather models...but today that was a good thing. LOL. 18z gfs was about as hideous as it comes in the LR. At least we get some good precip after being cold and dry. 

The h5 pattern seems to progress with noticeable improvement towards day 15 on the ensembles. A bit more so on the GEFS. Looks like the +heights from that monster EPO ridge build over into the AO/NAO domain, trough moves east, and the WAR is suppressed somewhat. Lets hope this has some semblance of reality.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cape, don't look at the 18z gefs. Especially after d10. 

Being one to believe in seasonal patterns,  they may be a signal to a pattern change. Notice the ridge displaced north/west of Alaska from our optimal location.  That was present for a week or so in November,  if you recall,  before the pattern changed and what I posted told me we'd have blocking this winter.  Look for a return to a favorable pattern the end of December or early January IF the pattern repeats.

Also,  all should recall the great winter of 95/96 had several very warm interruptions through the winter after the blizzard. Am I saying we'll have another 95/96? No, but I am ahead of snowfall at this point in the season vs. 95/96. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets see where the 0z runs go from here. We are certainly seeing pretty strong indications of a western trough/SE ridge on the ensembles for a time. Question is how persistent it will be. If HL blocking can build back into the AO/NAO domains, it should be relatively short lived. GEFS ens forecasts are suggesting this may be the case, with the AO/NAO possibly trending negative towards the end of the month. Of course, we have seen this (many times) before, and it almost always falls short.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Being one to believe in seasonal patterns,  they may be a signal to a pattern change. Notice the ridge displaced north/west of Alaska from our optimal location.  That was present for a week or so in November,  if you recall,  before the pattern changed and what I posted told me we'd have blocking this winter.  Look for a return to a favorable pattern the end of December or early January IF the pattern repeats.

Also,  all should recall the great winter of 95/96 had several very warm interruptions through the winter after the blizzard. Am I saying we'll have another 95/96? No, but I am ahead of snowfall at this point in the season vs. 95/96. 

I don't disagree with you or think we're doomed. Just pointing out the trend. My guess is if the d10-15 mean look does happen that it will probably bother us for a couple weeks. 

As long as canada doesn't go all Agung on us we can get back in the game really quick.  As quick as a single strong front. The bothersome part of the look is its a pretty wet setup but lacking in the frozen dept. Would be a bit of a gut punch to have a rainy holiday week. Plenty of time before worrying about that though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't disagree with you or think we're doomed. Just pointing out the trend. My guess is if the d10-15 mean look does happen that it will probably bother us for a couple weeks. 

As long as canada doesn't go all Agung on us we can get back in the game really quick.  As quick as a single strong front. The bothersome part of the look is its a pretty wet setup but lacking in the frozen dept. Would be a bit of a gut punch to have a rainy holiday week. Plenty of time before worrying about that though. 

The good thing is that we know the ensembles as depicted today will not be precise reality in 12-16 days. Therefore, we could end of on the right side of the gradient.  Likewise,  even if  we start out on the wrong side, it should shift south as we enter the heart of winter in January-February. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Back in November when the current pattern including last week was being advertised in the day 10 -15 range there were more then a few  op and ensemble runs that  wanted to dump lots of energy in the sw ...they fairly quickly adjusted . My money is on that disaster feature  adjusting and verifying not near as severe . I agree with Mitch..pattern reload fairly quickly...hopefully:D

Pattern would reload just in time for the annual early Jan icebox, so it should check out pretty well

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The good thing is that we know the ensembles as depicted today will not be precise reality in 12-16 days. Therefore, we could end of on the right side of the gradient.  Likewise,  even if  we start out on the wrong side, it should shift south as we enter the heart of winter in January-February. 

Hopefully we're staring at some sort of reload in 10 days or so. Agree about the gradient. It's going to move around and there looks to be abundant cold in canada for the foreseeable future. The one troubling thing is while the ens don't agree on the trough axis down the line, they do all agree that the nao is going to work against us. We're pretty used to that though. Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hopefully we're staring at some sort of reload in 10 days or so. Agree about the gradient. It's going to move around and there looks to be abundant cold in canada for the foreseeable future. The one troubling thing is while the ens don't agree on the trough axis down the line, they do all agree that the nao is going to work against us. We're pretty used to that though. Lol

Reading other forums here at American, and came across the mention that as soon as the cold pool emerged South of Greenland this week, last week, etc., all the computer models turned away from forecasting a - NAO .  Whether that continues to be the case for Jan and Feb not sure. 

I also believe we never had the conducive SST profile to begin with regarding a seasonal - NAO 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Somehow I did not envision the chance of a SE ridge and losing the -NAO.  Some of the looks in fantasy model land were so epic I thought the party would roll on for epic December.  I need to put my expectations in check more often as I think I can see where this headed.  SE ridges are stubborn like cockroaches.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF locked and unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...