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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

25-35% is above climo for our area.

 

 

Hypothetically, if Christmas is warm and/or rainy but the rest of the week shows promise then I don't care nearly as much one way or another. That's what the EPS/GEFS look like right now. We haven't seen a 10-15d prog do well yet so I'm not jumping on anything. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Hypothetically, if Christmas is warm and/or rainy but the rest of the week shows promise then I don't care nearly as much one way or another. That's what the EPS/GEFS look like right now. We haven't seen a 10-15d prog do well yet so I'm not jumping on anything. 

Yeah, I agree. After this week, all you can say is that the weather looks active and changeable and the guidance has been far from steady.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Hypothetically, if Christmas is warm and/or rainy but the rest of the week shows promise then I don't care nearly as much one way or another. That's what the EPS/GEFS look like right now. We haven't seen a 10-15d prog do well yet so I'm not jumping on anything. 

THIS.... yea the few actual white christmasses were amazing, 2002 probably my favorite because the 4" of wet paste was totally unexpected and happened christmas morning so it was a legit real white xmas and it totally covered the grass unlike some of the others...but second to that if we get snow sometime within the christmas week its good to me.  I just like the idea of hearing holiday music and seeing the lights with snow on the ground.  Makes the season feel more right.  Even the event we just had satisfied me a bit but it was a bit early, rather have it within a few days of xmas on either side.  But I am generally with you as long as its not a torch the entire period I am ok.  

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Hypothetically, if Christmas is warm and/or rainy but the rest of the week shows promise then I don't care nearly as much one way or another. That's what the EPS/GEFS look like right now. We haven't seen a 10-15d prog do well yet so I'm not jumping on anything. 

I like your thinking. Seems like week after Christmas towards new years has a chance to be cold/wet. First ever blizzard that spans over different years maybe?

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When I see an EPO ridge forecasted like the latest EPS, it is no surprise to see a MSLP prog like the one below.  I know '13-14 has been thrown around a lot but this does remind a bit of what we would see in the long range or what the models "dont see" in the long range. 

A D13 mean has a 1030 ridge over the upper midwest, which is pretty impressive imo...low level cold is going to push its way into what looks like a warm h5 map.  I could envision the models sniffing this out as we get toward midweek next week....

 

eps_z500a_nh_55.thumb.png.518a26461b774ed9fd106de83ce63323.png

eps_mslp_nh_55.thumb.png.d5921c611a19edf4d0905e28fb685400.png

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1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Yes while the H5 maps looks warm with ridging, the temperature anomalies along the east coast aren’t torch worthy. The pattern as progged seems to leave the door open for messy mixed bag storms, but not an all out torch. 

12z GFS said hold my beer. The signal seems pretty consistent for a big storm around Christmas at least. But models heading in wrong direction for snow prospects.

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8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Something in the atmosphere is off

D6.gif

That's next Monday. We know next week is gonna be warm, but not hot. If you mean the average temperature anomaly North of Virginia which is squished in between warmer than average temps, I'm guessing that's just CAD for the potential storm next week

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