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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't look now, but the GFS just gave us a clipper and a follow up snow on the 12z

yeah just saw that.  Looks like they are digging a little further south.  Verbatim it would be a great end of week for many.  

Dont tell anyone....but snow maps ticked up nicely for EOW.

 

Nut

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Just now, mitchnick said:

lower eastern shore jackpots again....it's looking like their winter from an early point of view

It probably wont happen exactly like that. But overall love what the run is advertising for this week- maybe a couple skiffs of snow, then a decent event. We can only hope this week plays out something like this.

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I wish he'd post in here again as a non-moderator.  He offered great insight and it would be nice to see him in the discussions.



Agreed. Always had some good insight, don't entirely remember what drove him off but I enjoy following him on Twitter.

Looking like we don't get through the next week without a couple chances. Exciting times. Have to start checking the NAMs again soon.
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Just now, stormtracker said:

Whoa, just saw the GFS...interesting and close in...maybe we can reel this one in...sure, it's "only" 2" or so, but it's December, so...

I just started a new thread to discuss all event(s) for this week of December 11. This week isn't long or even medium at this point.

 

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The Saturday thing definitely has potential. I started paying attention to it as a singular threat yesterday because it struck me as the kind of thing that often trends better for us. Not all the time but enough to think maybe.  It's still way too far out to be worried about specifics. Just look what happened the last 72 hours last week. This is still 100 hours out. The trends are good right now. Just have to wait and see. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The Saturday thing definitely has potential. I started paying attention to it as a singular threat yesterday because it struck me as the kind of thing that often trends better for us. Not all the time but enough to think maybe.  It's still way too far out to be worried about specifics. Just look what happened the last 72 hours last week. This is still 100 hours out. The trends are good right now. Just have to wait and see. 

it looks like a friday thing

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I wouldn't sleep on the wave early next week either. Actually the whole long range looks loaded with potential to me. Looks like waves galore riding the boundary. Most look warm in the gfs but there are numerous ways to change that. A well timed high. Two waves seperating just enough to sink the boundary for the following wave to ride along. 

 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

it looks like a friday thing

My bad. It does. Too far out for me to dig into so I probably saw the 0z saturday time stamp and didn't think into it enough to realize that's showing Friday afteroon. Ive been busy beyond belief with family and work stuff. Not as much time to weather as years past. 

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wouldn't sleep on the wave early next week either. Actually the whole long range looks loaded with potential to me. Looks like waves galore riding the boundary. Most look warm in the gfs but there are numerous ways to change that. A well timed high. Two waves seperating just enough to sink the boundary for the following wave to ride along. 

 

Mentioned I liked early next week (Mon/Tues), yesterday . Going over the last few days of runs it looked as if the GFS/GEFS was moving towards a look that argued for amplification of a trough into the central part of the country and swinging it east. Nice to see the GFS run do pretty much what I had in mind.

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Saw some talk about this in other fourms:

eps_z500a_d5_noram_360.png&key=19dd42764

 

The talk was of a -EPO... but a +NAO.  Looks like the Southeast Ridge comes back into play as the month ends per the 12z EPS

 

thats not the worst SE ridge ive ever seen...might be the worst NAO ive ever seen though lol

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