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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ukie is a good model but no model is perfect. Not even the euro. However, from 72 hours and in, the euro is unquestionably the most accurate. It has its hiccups too but if the euro shows something similar to the gfs then banking on the ukie is foolish. 

The real fun starts when the euro splits the difference between the ukie/cmc and gfs. lol

It is a good model and verifies better than the GFS on average at least at 500h.  Makes me really interested in the Euro as the UKMET did shift quite a bit west and is much stronger with the upper level feature. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

After all the crazy busts (good and bad) and crazy out of nowhere shifts in guidance at short range I love how some still make declarative statements after every good or bad op run. 

I have not noticed much shifting from the euro in the last 48 hours, so if this one does that would impress me.

eta: timing has been different, but low placements have looked similar to me

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I'm rather skeptical of the storm moving out to sea. Models are for sure gonna put up a fight in the next 48 hours. I'll try to bring up some more posts from that Jan 6th 2017 storm, since I think that's our closest analog. Cold front came in Wednesday, storm Friday. Only difference is a clipper event that missed us that Thursday. I remember that the models showed good potential on the weekend, backed off Monday, Tuesday, slightly came back Tuesday night, looks dismal Wednesday, came back Wednesday afternoon. came back Friday, and we had the potential of 1-3" even NW of DC. It can surely happen again, especially since we're seeing how volatile the models can be

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