Casualbrain Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Sorry folks but cancel winter. I just Jinxed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It's good but when the mean trough in the east is too east it hurts us. You said we need a broad trough that's more west... I see why For getting a big juicy system up from the south a narrow trough rarely works. But it's not a shutout pattern so that's probably the most important thing. We need pretty big cold departures in early Dec to get snow so it's a tradeoff. The amplified pattern will should drive some impressive cold well south of us. Being in the game is all we can ask for either way. We been tormented with a lot of wasted Decembers lately. Even 2013 wasn't that good near the cities. I had 2 events totaling 4". 09 was the last big December the cities and burbs have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: Sorry folks but cancel winter. I just Jinxed it. You have to buy it again to cancel canceling winter out. It's like multiplying negatives, or double opposites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: You have to buy it again to cancel canceling winter out. It's like multiplying negatives, or double opposites Return it and repurchase from a competitor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: For getting a big juicy system up from the south a narrow trough rarely works. But it's not a shutout pattern so that's probably the most important thing. We need pretty big cold departures in early Dec to get snow so it's a tradeoff. The amplified pattern will should drive some impressive cold well south of us. Being in the game is all we can ask for either way. We been tormented with a lot of wasted Decembers lately. Even 2013 wasn't that good near the cities. I had 2 events totaling 4". 09 was the last big December the cities and burbs have had. Even at 384 it just keeps coming. Like a conveyer belt of cold. That is just wow on its own. Up to eastern GL and back down the slide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 18z GEFS rolling out right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Made a mistake and thought they were talking euro weeklies so I deleted my post in case you thought you were seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 It's an electric snowblower so karma says we'll get a huge blizzard that will choke it to death like a kid's toy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 18z GEFS has precip farther west than 12z, slightly east compared to 6z. Will post pictures soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It's an electric snowblower so karma says we'll get a huge blizzard that will choke it to death like a kid's toy. Best case scenario, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 18z has better consensus than the 12z GEFS Kind of reminds me of the 0z last night, which of course led to the beautiful 6z GEFS run 6z for reference Also for reference, 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Surprising level of agreement through day 7.5 in GEFS. Note - these aren't the impressive full run snow maps, just the week's worth of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 18z GEFS also brought the heaviest precip NW by about 50 miles 12z Baby steps Also to note, larger precip gradient on the 18z. You go from 0.5" of precip to 1" real fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 In these dark times we rely on the German model. I'm learning all about the wonky models today. The German, which I'm pretty sure is the DWD-Icon, runs four times a day, but seemingly only runs to 78hrs 6z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Tonight's run of the Euro weeklies synopsis http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?do=findComment&comment=83672 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GEFS still looks great through end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Tonight's run of the Euro weeklies synopsis http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?do=findComment&comment=83672 Can I like something twice? That looks just perfect! Nearly perfect. Gives us chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 being that were at 4.5 days, there is still time for a few more ticks west, so while I think were all feeling alright...i think there's still room for improvement for this to come Northwest, as the recent sharpening of the trough offers hope...and we often see the normal NW trends, so I think if history holds, y'all are sitting pretty. I'm pullin for the southern crew cause many of you like (or appreciate) snow more than some of my brethren well north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: being that were at 4.5 days, there is still time for a few more ticks west, so while I think were all feeling alright...i think there's still room for improvement for this to come Northwest, as the recent sharpening of the trough offers hope...and we often see the normal NW trends, so I think if history holds, y'all are sitting pretty. I'm pullin for the southern crew cause many of you like (or appreciate) snow more than some of my brethren well north of me. The northern brothers are spoiled. We suffer for snow. The weeklies look great. Can’t tell which week is which. I think week 4 is Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, supernovasky said: GEFS still looks great through end of run i see 12 crappy solutions out of 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Tonight's run of the Euro weeklies synopsis http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?do=findComment&comment=83672 The weeklies imply that this winter's base state is a -ao/-epo/+pna. Makes sense but weeklies can flip immediatey following an eps flip. The good thing right now is we don't have to look way down the line praying for a pattern change. We get to enjoy a winter type pattern pretty much right now and also enjoy the probability that it isn't going away anytime soon. My guess is the first relaxation is only going to be the pna. We can work with a -pna once we get into late Dec. I'd have to go back and sift through data but I have a hunch that a -ao/-pna still delivers snowfall sometimes but the risk of a mixed event goes up. Mixed events are pretty normal ways we get snow so no big deal there. No signs of the ao going positive is probably the biggest thing we have going for us. We're going to be in good shape if the -ao holds for another couple weeks. About dam time it cooperates too. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The northern brothers are spoiled. We suffer for snow. The weeklies look great. Can’t tell which week is which. I think week 4 is Xmas. Just saw them.... more like 4 weeks of Christmas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: i see 12 crappy solutions out of 20 Yeah but do you like our chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ji said: i see 12 crappy solutions out of 20 but there is still 8 good ones. Half full buddy...... half full....... edit: ok....40% anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i see 12 crappy solutions out of 20 That's what I thought too. But maybe we score on a NW trend for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: but there is still 8 good ones. Half full buddy...... half full....... 40% full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: 40% full If it’s whiskey you are golden. 4 fingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The weeklies imply that this winter's base state is a -ao/-epo/+pna. Makes sense but weeklies can flip immediatey following an eps flip. The good thing right now is we don't have to look way down the line praying for a pattern change. We get to enjoy a winter type pattern pretty much right now and also enjoy the probability that it isn't going away anytime soon. My guess is the first relaxation is only going to be the pna. We can work with a -pna once we get into late Dec. I'd have to go back and sift through data but I have a hunch that a -ao/-pna still delivers snowfall sometimes but the risk of a mixed event goes up. Mixed events are pretty normal ways we get snow so no big deal there. No signs of the ao going positive is probably the biggest thing we have going for us. We're going to be in good shape if the -ao holds for another couple weeks. About dam time it cooperates too. Lol Yep, a cold first half of winter looks about as likely as I've ever seen it. Now we pray for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 40% full was editing as i knew da smart guys were lurking..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yep, a cold first half of winter looks about as likely as I've ever seen it. Now we pray for the snow. even if we get relaxation after the likely good run, and ugly stuff showing up....we still at least have peak climo on our side during any flips/changes.... Good enough for now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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