lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Agreed...the early season events always shift a bit more northward than forecast...channel 7 was the worst this morning and looked out to lunch, Kaylee on 4, who im not a fan of, showed the band taking shape square in the northtowns and into the city by 6am Wednesday already. On a side note, next Sunday through Tuesday really has my attention as well. Lot's to talk about and follow over the next 5 to 7 days it appears. Sunday to Tuesday is starting to look really good for the same areas that look to get hit by this event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, vortmax said: While I enjoy the sarcasm, Rochester is usually underrepresented (especially with LES events) on this forum, so I really appreciate Tim's input - he's usually right! He has really good pattern recognition for the difficult to predict south shore events, definitely. But the "we'll get more snow than you later in the season" stuff was a bit too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, vortmax said: While I enjoy the sarcasm, Rochester is usually underrepresented (especially with LES events) on this forum, so I really appreciate Tim's input - he's usually right! Thanks. Been studying local weather for 30 years. Amateur yes. Stupid no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, WNash said: He has really good pattern recognition for the difficult to predict south shore events, definitely. But the "we'll get more snow than you later in the season" stuff was a bit too much. Climo speaking I am right about That. Especially in Feb march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Sunday to Tuesday is starting to look really good for the same areas that look to get hit by this event.. The flow looks to be mean wsw to sw for that 3 day period...the upcoming event Wednesday -Friday will be more water laden as temps at the surface will be marginal...that Sunday-Tuesday timeframe will be a more powdery consistency and will be worse than this 1st event imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Not this week but next week later in week south shore is looking good. Remember if global models are showing it usually a good event. Your right south shore is very hard to predict Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: The flow looks to be mean wsw to sw for that 3 day period...the upcoming event Wednesday -Friday will be more water laden as temps at the surface will be marginal...that Sunday-Tuesday timeframe will be a more powdery consistency and will be worse than this 1st event imho. Agreed. Much higher slr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: The flow looks to be mean wsw to sw for that 3 day period...the upcoming event Wednesday -Friday will be more water laden as temps at the surface will be marginal...that Sunday-Tuesday timeframe will be a more powdery consistency and will be worse than this 1st event imho. I think we could see some higher totals with that event with some fluff factor which could lead to some insane totals by middle of next week if same areas get hit by that event as this first one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Next weekend has a 3rd event. Looks W/SW as well. Going to be insane, I told you guys this 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Buffalo area will make national news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 One would think that if the 3 events were to verify that we would be in the top 5 of December snowfall totals by the end of December at KBUF...thats a big if though so no jumping the gun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 What I like is the ensamble support on gfs for snow fall widespread 1 to 2 feet as a mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 28 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: One would think that if the 3 events were to verify that we would be in the top 5 of December snowfall totals by the end of December at KBUF...thats a big if though so no jumping the gun here. All depends if the airport get its or not. They are always on the razors edge for these events. The November 2014 event barely shows up "officially" because the airport was spared the grand majority of it, which is a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: All depends if the airport get its or not. They are always on the razors edge for these events. The November 2014 event barely shows up "officially" because the airport was spared the grand majority of it, which is a shame. Too bad the NWS couldn't get a big investment to add a couple thousand solar-powered weather stations throughout the country for a greater resolution of obs and model input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: All depends if the airport get its or not. They are always on the razors edge for these events. The November 2014 event barely shows up "officially" because the airport was spared the grand majority of it, which is a shame. Well it appears the airport will have no issue with the first event as it is squarely in the 12-18" range...not certain about the second event but one would think the band would oscillate just as this band will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm not trying to be a downer but I'm not super sold on the intensity of the city portion of the event Wednesday morning and afternoon. The 700mb rh is exceedingly low. There's much more evidence for a good band in the southtowns wed evening. Still lots of time. I'm not a big fan of theses super far in advance accumulation maps. Its Monday afternoon. Maps for wed thru Friday morn? Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I'm not trying to be a downer but I'm not super sold on the intensity of the city portion of the event Wednesday morning and afternoon. The 700mb rh is exceedingly low. There's much more evidence for a good band in the southtowns wed evening. Still lots of time. I'm not a big fan of theses super far in advance accumulation maps. Its Monday afternoon. Maps for wed thru Friday morn? Ok. Don Paul agrees: While the newest wind direction data supports this forecast, I'm a little concerned Wednesday daytime totals MAY come up short. I'm seeing quite a bit of disarray in this morning's models' accumulation potential and hints the SW flow during Wednesday may come up short on "well-organized" lake snow for parts of the day, reducing accumulations in parts of Northern Erie County. NWS HQ which likely does NOT have as good a handle on this as local meteorologists, including of course NWS Buffalo, seems to have low confidence on probabilities for heavy snow during Wednesday. Threading the needles, I'd say NW Erie County (Tonawanda, Grand Island, closer to Tonawanda Creek) will get less than Amherst, Wmsville & Buffalo. The band will likely intensify late in the day and settle across the Buffalo Stowns and parts of Southern Erie, & NW Chautauqua Co Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I'm not trying to be a downer but I'm not super sold on the intensity of the city portion of the event Wednesday morning and afternoon. The 700mb rh is exceedingly low. There's much more evidence for a good band in the southtowns wed evening. Still lots of time. I'm not a big fan of theses super far in advance accumulation maps. Its Monday afternoon. Maps for wed thru Friday morn? Ok. Im not certain either and i was myself thinking that thursday afternoon and night would be the metro north chance for the significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Here is an example of how the mesoscale models simulate the life-cycle of the bands of snow off Lake Erie and Ontario this coming Wednesday into Thursday. Wind directions will be changing slightly throughout the event so that it will be a challenge to accurately predict exact location and movement of the snow bands. Although this is not a perfect setup for the most intense types of storms, I expect to see some snowfall rates exceeding 3" per hour and maybe, just maybe THUNDERSNOW !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 New wording in the updated watch from NWS BUF... now calls for 2-3 feet in the Southtowns where before it said accumulations over 2’ possible... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows. Locally two to three feet possible for locations in the Buffalo Southtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Don’t forget if we get a nice single convergence band it can overcome the lack of moisture so it might all come down to how hard that band get cranking coming early Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 The NAM looks pretty terrible for LES. Barely gets a band going and winds are W even NW for a time. It is the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The NAM looks pretty terrible for LES. Barely gets a band going and winds are W even NW for a time. It is the NAM though. Yeah NAM looks horrible and even the hires NAM backed off on totals. I know it’s pretty useless but even the BTV WRF backed way off on totals with most of the metro area and Southtowns seeing less than 1/2” of QPF and usually this model way overdoes QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 PPL looking at totals for a LES event that's supposed to start 3 days from now is just laughable, but we all do it, lol. Some stations cant predict totals from a day out, and sometimes 12hrs out. We all know the Southtowns and the Tug are gonna get the lion share of this event, but I'm thinking all the hype is because its the first of this young season. Anyway, besides all the LES talk, there are some really nice synoptic chances throughout the period as well. This pattern will share the wealth either by LE, or synoptically driven events. As far as totals, who cares, its not like its gonna warm up anytime soon like some other yrs. Last yr we couldn't get snow to last for a couple of days, at best, including last Novembers event, nevermind lasting for 2-3 weeks, which is what we're looking at this yr, perhaps longer, so good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 39 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah NAM looks horrible and even the hires NAM backed off on totals. I know it’s pretty useless but even the BTV WRF backed way off on totals with most of the metro area and Southtowns seeing less than 1/2” of QPF and usually this model way overdoes QPF... Well if true we have sunday through Tuesday next week to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Hey Guys. My work is sending me up there to Tonawanda this Weds the 6th until Thurs dec 14th to work on the new Planet Fitness under construction on Sheridan Drive. Looks like a great week to experience some lake effect snow. I can stay at any hotel I want up to $100 a night. I don't want to be to far though as I am going to be driving a rear wheel drive Nissan van that's not the best in deep snow but that's not that big of a concern. I just don't want to be more than a half hour away. I am thinking of staying around the Buffalo Niagara airport. Should I look further south than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, BrianW said: Hey Guys. My work is sending me up there to Tonawanda this Weds the 6th until Thurs dec 14th to work on the new Planet Fitness under construction on Sheridan Drive. Looks like a great week to experience some lake effect snow. I can stay at any hotel I want up to $100 a night. I don't want to be to far though as I am going to be driving a rear wheel drive Nissan van that's not the best in deep snow but that's not that big of a concern. I just don't want to be more than a half hour away. I am thinking of staying around the Buffalo Niagara airport. Should I look further south than that? I'd head a little more south... Here are a couple places to check out in West Seneca. Right next to the 90 and about 20-30 minute drive from your job site... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 This looks like one cold and generally dry pattern for the next two weeks, outside of decent localized lake effect in WNY and NNY. Hopefully something synoptic materializes other than a passing sh!tbox clipper. Worst case, should be good weather for killing off mosquito larvae with cold temps and minimal snowcover. Although they always seem to get me come spring time regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Started working on this during our November lull... Guess it's about time to wrap it up. Little choppy in parts and the sound could be better but I put together some of my favorite clips covering our major storms from 1977-2017. Let me know what you guys think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 41 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This looks like one cold and generally dry pattern for the next two weeks, outside of decent localized lake effect in WNY and NNY. Hopefully something synoptic materializes other than a passing sh!tbox clipper. Worst case, should be good weather for killing off mosquito larvae with cold temps and minimal snowcover. Although they always seem to get me come spring time regardless. Nah, I see several synoptic chances the next 10 days, and I'm not even gonna speculate on LES chances cause I think we see some accumulating snows Sunday-Monday then some LE on a NW-WNW flow before it heads North. As far as Wed-Thurs, that's a big goose egg for CNY, besides a few passing sn shwrs from time to time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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