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Upstate/Eastern New York


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I don't recall every run of every model in the past two days but I don't believe any showed Lake Ontario being a Tug Hill event after the Clipper but that's what has happened. Winds wrong and moisture drastically over predicted. It's dry as a bone out there and getting drier as arctic airmass seeps south. Equilibrium levels  will crash as atmosphere cools and dries out so that by the time wind does shift, there's little moisture remaining. At most, we see a few hours of moderate snow as the Tug Hill band sinks south, falls off the lake and turns into a weak multiband spray Wednesday.  Fairly spectacular forecast bust shaping up and filed away for future reference.  The lower resistance over the lakes creates a persistent convergence effect that confounds modeling.   Which is why you can junk most model output downwind of Lake Ontario, or shift it north 20-30 miles and keep it there much longer than any model forecasts most of the time.   George, LEK used to preach that.

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

I don't recall every run of every model in the past two days but I don't believe any showed Lake Ontario being a Tug Hill event after the Clipper but that's what has happened. Winds wrong and moisture drastically over predicted. It's dry as a bone out there and getting drier as arctic airmass seeps south. Equilibrium levels  will crash as atmosphere cools and dries out so that by the time wind does shift, there's little moisture remaining. At most, we see a few hours of moderate snow as the Tug Hill band sinks south, falls off the lake and turns into a weak multiband spray Wednesday.  Fairly spectacular forecast bust shaping up and filed away for future reference.  The lower resistance over the lakes creates a persistent convergence effect that confounds modeling.   Which is why you can junk most model output downwind of Lake Ontario, or shift it north 20-30 miles and keep it there much longer than any model forecasts most of the time.   George, LEK used to preach that.

Where the F is the king?

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7 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Meoscale low developing north north West of monroe county north side of lake

Tim, I'm under heavy stuff now. You? 

I gotta say. You always see this stuff better than anyone. Folks get pissed and sign off. But you are so steadfast. 

Still, ive only seen one inch. And this thing could shut off too soon. 

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