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Upstate/Eastern New York


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4 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

Looks like we'll be lucky to pick up another inch in Buffalo. WNW wind doesn't treat the city too well, no matter how moist the flow.

Unfortunately things aren't looking too good next week, so hopefully we get at least one for decent shot at snow before Christmas.

The PNA looks to go back positive after a few days of negative. The EPO looks to go strongly negative again as well. AO is close to neutral with a positive NAO. At least the Pacific doesn't appear to dominate the flow heading into Christmas.

4indices.png

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

The PNA looks to go back positive after a few days of negative. The EPO looks to go strongly negative again as well. AO is close to neutral with a positive NAO. At least the Pacific doesn't appear to dominate the flow heading into Christmas.

4indices.png

 

 

 

 

Yeah Positive PNA and negative EPO look good. But positive AO and NAO means there will be a battle ground of sorts somewhere in the Eastern USA/Great Lakes. It's a great look for big synoptic storms somewhere. 

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18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah Positive PNA and negative EPO look good. But positive AO and NAO means there will be a battle ground of sorts somewhere in the Eastern USA/Great Lakes. It's a great look for big synoptic storms somewhere. 

Agreed. +AO and +NAO isn't always bad if the other indices are favorable and there's sufficient cold air/snow cover in our hemi. The GFS shows a frontal boundary from SW to NE sliced through the US with many waves training along. If we fall on the northern side, then it could mean lots of snow (or ice). This happened over a 5-7 day period sometime in the '96-'98 time frame bringing 1-2 feet of snow to ROC. Can be a great setup!

The MJO is progged to move into 7 & 8 as well over the next week or so.

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1 minute ago, vortmax said:

Agreed. +AO and +NAO isn't always bad if the other indices are favorable and there's sufficient cold air/snow cover in our hemi. The GFS shows a frontal boundary from SW to NE sliced through the US with many waves training along. If we fall on the northern side, then it could mean lots of snow. This happened over a 5-7 day period sometime in the '96-'98 time frame bringing 1-2 feet of snow to ROC. Can be a great setup!

Can also lead to some big time ice events. I don't even remember the last ice event we got. 

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14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Can also lead to some big time ice events. I don't even remember the last ice event we got. 

Yeah, the 12z GFS showed what would amount to a nasty ice storm across WNY during and just after Christmas. Obviously not going to happen, but it does look like the pattern should get more interesting as we approach Christmas.

I just hope we end up on the right side of the cold air to get snow, because another green Christmas would be quite the let down, especially given how promising the pattern looked at the beginning of the month.

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah Positive PNA and negative EPO look good. But positive AO and NAO means there will be a battle ground of sorts somewhere in the Eastern USA/Great Lakes. It's a great look for big synoptic storms somewhere. 

Cohen just mentioned the same thing with our CWA's all on the snowy side.

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24 minutes ago, WNash said:

Do things still look good for Orleans/Monroe? I was going to drive up to Lockport and then drive east on Ridge Road to go see some actual snow.

1241 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult at times. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.
  Greatest accumulations from far eastern Monroe County eastward
  to Oswego County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM Wednesday.
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1 minute ago, vortmax said:

1241 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult at times. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.
  Greatest accumulations from far eastern Monroe County eastward
  to Oswego County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM Wednesday.

I think it would make more sense to drive towards Perrysburg instead of eastern Monroe County. Just as far and higher forecasted accums. I was trying to avoid all the hills/curves in Chautauqua Cty.

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I definitely don't like the looks of this developing LE as I think Spectrum may have been on to something wirh their paltry totals and I'm thinking the same. As Delta alluded to earlier, the main flow is more westerly and looks to hammer Central Oswego County and Not So Oswego County and that's a bit disheartening. What was supposed to be a NW-WNW flow event has turned into a Westerly flow event, lol. So I guess the 5.3" that fell last night gets to be out grand total for a event that was supposed to drop 12-18". Oh well, on to the next one.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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22 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I definitely don't like the looks of this developing LE as I think Spectrum may have been on to something wirh their paltry totals and I'm thinking the same. As Delta alluded to earlier, the main flow is more westerly and looks to hammer Central Oswego County and Not So Oswego County and that's a bit disheartening. What was supposed to be a NW-WNW flow event has turned into a Westerly flow event, lol. So I guess the 5.3" that fell last night gets to be out grand total for a event that was supposed to drop 12-18". Oh well, on to the next one.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

There is a wind shift with the front...looks NNW...

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