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Upstate/Eastern New York


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3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Precip shield blossoming as it hits the southern Ontario/ Lake Erie area...light snow, light winds out of the ENE...all signs pointing to a more southern low track...and more appreciable accumulations imo.

Can't be over said (although I'm likely approaching that). Where you located?

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Tried to reply to this but something bugged out...Dave I live in Williamsville...Tim I think those totals are low as the NWS and local mets do not seem to have a good handle on the path or teack of the lp...Todd Santos of WIVB channel 4 in buffalo just showed the future cast which started at 6pm and showed no snow yet in WNY, clearly that is wrong, second he is showing darker blues for about 9 hours and calling fir 2 to 4 inches and thats it. Third thing he has the lp above the Adirondack area and it is clearly south of NY state line and 4 there is a seemingly strong forcing over southern michigan that appears strong and growing in size...add it up an I believe this event over achieves. 

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5 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Scaled back for some..Warnings just issued..

38235385-C45B-4268-8F83-9C845B7684FB.png

I thought the original map was overdone, but I think this map underdone.  I was thinking 7 to 10 for BUF, north BUF, Tonawanda etc., 4 to 7 buf for downtown BUF lackawanna/OP area (central Erie) with areas of 10-14 inches on the escarpment of Niagara and Orleans Counties. 

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

There was a touch of freezing drizzle reported in London, Ontario and northward for the past few hours.  Looks like a pocket of dry air between the north and southern shortwaves near 700-800mb.  I don't think that will be an issue farther west, but something to keep an eye on.  

Im also really unimpressed,  at this time, by the precip field to the west...l9oks like its trying to expand but is pretty thin atm.

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The band over S Michigan (Lansing) is what blossoms over WNY in 3-5 hrs. I hope.

LP is definitely a tick further south. On the HRR above, you can see where it wants to go- right through the twin tiers. 

If it does that, I expect snowfall to overperform expectations. Esp thruway north. Instead of 1-3 with the synoptic we'll be looking at more like 3-6. 

Everytime with that track. 

Now we gotta just hold tight and watch it fill. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I do notice the upper level precip trying to connect with the stronger lp precip field near southern Ontario 

Warm air advection will allow snowband to expand in coverage to cover most of Upstate New York. The low will be strengthening quite a bit as it nears the PA/NY line. The farther south it travels the better, we avoid any mixing issues and dry slot issues. 

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6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The band over S Michigan (Lansing) is what blossoms over WNY in 3-5 hrs. I hope.

LP is definitely a tick further south. On the HRR above, you can see where it wants to go- right through the twin tiers. 

If it does that, I expect snowfall to overperform expectations. Esp thruway north. Instead of 1-3 with the synoptic we'll be looking at more like 3-6. 

Everytime with that track. 

Now we gotta just hold tight and watch it fill. 

 

Yeah, all systems go until further notice...And you guys in the Rochester area should be pumped about what's going on in the UP of Michigan.  Lake Superior is puking snow up there right now.  

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