tim123 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Plus there is 24 more hours of lake snow to go after end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Heavy snow here right now, definitely a surprise. Almost a whiteout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Joe bastardi says Tuesday Wednesday lake snow looks epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Heavy snow here right now, definitely a surprise. Almost a whiteout! Just in OP moderate snow but roads already covered... Just flurries here... I know the models were showing a quick burst around midnight but radar looks like a lake band firing up pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Looks like a good set up for kfzy on the Nam, 1.2”LE by wed am with lake snows still going..Granted gotta take precipitation with a grain of salt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Heavy snow here right now, definitely a surprise. Almost a whiteout! Bonus snow! Lake Erie firing some warning shots tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Yeah legit heavy snow here. visibility couple hundred yards if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Love the winters with surprises. Some winters just thinking of snow makes it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Almost 2" in last hour here. At 1025 PM EST, an band of lake effect snow was located along a line from Sturgeon Point to Hamburg to East Aurora, producing snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour and localized poor visibility to a quarter a mile or less. This band of snow is expected to meander over Southern Erie county through midnight before moving southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 RGEM is on board for the Bills game hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Well the stadium hit scenario looks like almost a guarantee now tomorrow. Question looks to be when it's there and how long it's going to stay in place. Looking back at the earlier 3k it had the band tonight spotted but 1-2 hours later and 10 miles further south. Adjust tomorrow's band placement by 2 hours sooner and 10 miles north and this thing might even try and hit the metro. Will be a fun day tracking for sure. I'm actually heading out to Medina tomorrow since the weather looked to be South now it's looking like the drive home on the 90 could be sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 00Z GooFuS snow bomb, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Should we bite on the northward shift in placement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Could be a decent “starter” event tomorrow as seen in both the NMM/ARW .. The Canadian OP and 0zGfs were clipper after clipper followed by LES each time, nearly 3” of liquid on both models over the next 10 days..(verbatim not all snow, not that I care at this moment lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Should we bite on the northward shift in placement? I believe that model is based off of this. It goes pretty far north. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Could be a decent “starter” event tomorrow as seen in both the NMM/ARW .. The Canadian OP and 0zGfs were clipper after clipper followed by LES each time, nearly 3” of liquid on both models over the next 10 days..(verbatim not all snow, not that I care at this moment lol) Any chance you could post either of those? Wondering how sharp the cutoffs are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, rochesterdave said: Any chance you could post either of those? Wondering how sharp the cutoffs are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Could be a decent “starter” event tomorrow as seen in both the NMM/ARW .. The Canadian OP and 0zGfs were clipper after clipper followed by LES each time, nearly 3” of liquid on both models over the next 10 days..(verbatim not all snow, not that I care at this moment lol) Yeah the PNA breaks down at end of runs. I think we get a 1-2 day thaw, possibly more. Some of the events will mix with and maybe even rain. Looks to be the few days before christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Picked up 3" of new snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 7 day precip for kroc from gfs=.25-.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: 7 day precip for kroc from gfs=.25-.5. HPC is usually decent at QPF approximates longer range. I think Tues-Thurs next week is best shot for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Models wont capture south shore events till a day or 2 ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 They got the general idea though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Talking Mon-Weds: Looks like a solid 4-8" event across the south shore. Monroe-Oswego. Sorry Niagara-Orleans, the winds look too WNW as opposed to N. If the primary goes further south, it will be a much, much bigger event. Our northward trend has ended. Basically we are where we were 24 hrs ago. With the northern most solutions coming more in line with the euro- which brings the low across Lake Ontario and leaves behind a trough. If we see this low move closer to the PA border, then thruway corridor gets 1-2 feet. But for now everything points towards anemic primary track followed by les aided by the western leg of trough. 4-8". The smart folks seem to agree, with a flatter solution but say we should wait for quality sampling on Sunday. Bonus stuff for folks who do well with a fast 290-300 flow. Think: Fulton and KSYR. Sorry Tim, It's just how I see it now (and for last two days). NWS is more bullish, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Hey that cool. I would take 4 to 8. But I am more optimistic. Id say 8 to 16. 8 Niagara county 16 Wayne county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hey that cool. I would take 4 to 8. But I am more optimistic. Id say 8 to 16. 8 Niagara county 16 Wayne county It's just a bit heartbreaking, cause I know what this would do if it could be a few ticks south. You know what a strengthening, slow moving, north pa low can do to our region. Here's to hope brother!! Otherwise, we wait for the back-end and hope the streamers hit us. Like you said, no way of knowing until we're out 24 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 If you look at the nam and gfs there are 2 pieces of energy. One diving at base of trough and one near polar vortex. Hence why you see 2 lows jumping around until the merge somewhere over ny or pa. Things have been trending south today. So 50 miles farther south and almost sweet track. It's a tricky call for sure. But a nw flow with high cap 10 to 15000 feet and wrap around moisture and temps in teens There will be some vicious bands on south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: If you look at the nam and gfs there are 2 pieces of energy. One diving at base of trough and one near polar vortex. Hence why you see 2 lows jumping around until the merge somewhere over my or pa. Things have been trending south today. So 50 miles farther south and almost sweet track. It's a tricky call for sure. But a nw flow with high cap 10 to 15000 feet and wrap around moisture and temps in teens There will be some vicious bands on south shore Yeah, sometimes more than two. Wxfreak mentioned that yesterday and it is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.