BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I mentioned yesterday the temps were marginal. This band has a long way to go to get the accumulations projected for southern Erie. Tomorrow will be southern eries best chance at strong LES. I think Eden/Boston get hit decently, and outside chance of Hamburg/East Aurora. I'm off of work tomorrow, so if anyone wants to mini chase with me and my puppy let me know. Boundary layer flow may back ever so slightly Thursday morning and early afternoon, centering the band across southern Erie and western Wyoming counties. The band may briefly reach as far north as some of the more distant southern suburbs of Buffalo from Hamburg to East Aurora. The Lake Erie band will likely reach its best organization on Thursday, with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches possible at times in the heaviest portion of this band. Storm totals through Thursday night are still expected to reach 1.5 feet. The highest amounts are expected across the Boston Hills in southern Erie County, the higher terrain in southwest Wyoming County, and portions of the Chautauqua Ridge in northern Chautauqua and northwest Cattaraugus counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Up to 36* here. Precip now is more rain with just a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Up to 36* here. Precip now is more rain with just a few flakes. What a joke. This has been the biggest bust in my lifetime and I don’t care what anybody says, to go from 2-3 feet a couple days ago to less than 1” of accumulation today which is now being melted away by RAIN. I will be lucky if I get an inch total from this event as models show the band dropping through the Southtowns VERY quickly in a couple hours and that’s IF it even changes back to snow. Screw this pattern and screw this winter. Congrats to you guys in the northtowns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: What a joke. This has been the biggest bust in my lifetime and I don’t care what anybody says, to go from 2-3 feet a couple days ago to less than 1” of accumulation today which is now being melted away by RAIN. I will be lucky if I get an inch total from this event as models show the band dropping through the Southtowns VERY quickly in a couple hours and that’s IF it even changes back to snow. Screw this pattern and screw this winter. Congrats to you guys in the northtowns! We got maybe an inch of snow up here, so “congrats” is the wrong sentiment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, WNash said: We got maybe an inch of snow up here, so “congrats” is the wrong sentiment. Just now, WNash said: We got maybe an inch of snow up here, so “congrats” is the wrong sentiment. Well my fiancé sent me pictures that looks like a couple inches in Williamsville but I could be wrong just guessing off a picture, but even still way more then here that’s for sure. The rain is just the icing on the cake today. Boy I really need to find a new hobby after this event cause this is total bull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: What a joke. This has been the biggest bust in my lifetime and I don’t care what anybody says, to go from 2-3 feet a couple days ago to less than 1” of accumulation today which is now being melted away by RAIN. I will be lucky if I get an inch total from this event as models show the band dropping through the Southtowns VERY quickly in a couple hours and that’s IF it even changes back to snow. Screw this pattern and screw this winter. Congrats to you guys in the northtowns! Bro, its Dec 6th, lol and KBUF should have never put out those kinds of totals 84hrs out, cause then ppl expect at least close to that with 3.5 days to go and then the day of the event its 36 and raining. I wouldn't exactly call it a bust just yet, as the forecast goes out to tomorrow afternoon or the advisories (right), but KBUF really got a lot of ppl going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 RGEM picked up rain nicely. Still forecasting quite a bit in ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The EURO has the Lake Ontario band hitting KBTV tomorrow evening into Friday, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: The EURO has the Lake Ontario band hitting KBTV tomorrow evening into Friday, lol. Next week looks good for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM picked up rain nicely. Still forecasting quite a bit in ski country. I'm in the snow hole between the 2, 13's, lol, gotta love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Did you guys see those fires in LA, looks like a scene out of a movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Gfs crush job in south shore middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Next week looks good for you guys. Yes it does, with a few passing clippers and perhaps a coastal for desert. Its early in the season, and last yr at this time we were entering a warm periocd that lasted through the holidays into January so I'm just happy we have events to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yes it does, with a few passing clippers and perhaps a coastal for desert. Its early in the season, and last yr at this time we were entering a warm periocd that lasted through the holidays into January so I'm just happy we have events to track! Should have some really high ratios 1:20 or even higher so should add up fast. But fluff bombs compact quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Keeping tabs on things from New Orleans (went from low 80’s and sun yesterday here to rain and maybe 50 today, shows how deep this trof is). Bummer this isn’t panning out the way it was forecast by BUF earlier this week. Sounds like some backtracking going on by local mets. Wife said she heard snowfall forecast busted because lake is too warm. Uh, no...if you’re going to bust, at least explain why the right way. Anyway...need to keep in mind that this is really just the first step down into a cold pattern. Hopefully a bunch more chances coming up this month for those not cashing today/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Snowmobilers should have a great base by the Holidays to ride on so thats a good thing as the last few seasons have been pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 With H850 Temps hovering between -7&-8C, no wonder you guys are seeing -rn. Thats just enough to get a response from the Lake but the air over Central MI are in the Mid teens but its taking its sweet ol time getting here. ANd H7 moisture is lacking even over Lake Ontario but later on this evening a batch of deeper moisture should clip most of Lake Ontario but don't know about Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 inches so far in Genesee county! we know who's getting all the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: 5 inches so far in Genesee county! we know who's getting all the snow Wivb has the band going north Thursday night friday am with 3 to 6 for the metro...and NWS says the same...maybe itll look better around here coupled with the hybrid snow Saturday i wouldnt be shocked to see northtowns between 6 to 10 inches on the ground by sunday am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The county border between Genessee and Ontario has been the sweet spot all day it looks like, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Nice, at least someone on this board is getting some snow, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: 5 inches so far in Genesee county! we know who's getting all the snow The in house models for channel 4 and 7 showed that as jackpot zone, nice to see them do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wivb has the band going north Thursday night friday am with 3 to 6 for the metro...and NWS says the same...maybe itll look better around here coupled with the hybrid snow Saturday i wouldnt be shocked to see northtowns between 6 to 10 inches on the ground by sunday am Yea we will get some snow but imagine what IT could've been for us here in Nrn.Erie county if the setup was right.. 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Nice, at least someone on this board is getting some snow, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk BUF has to have some really bad luck lmao, you know how many times over the past several years that we had the right LES setup only to deal with either some shear or moisture issues the last min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Tomorrow mid morning to early afternoon looks interesting for areas just south of Buffalo, i wouldn't be surprised to see some 2-3"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 hours ago, tim123 said: Gfs crush job in south shore middle of next week Bump...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Euro has same pattern next week huge blast with snow next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro has same pattern next week huge blast with snow next week I'll bite... haha. Middle of next week looks real good for kROC, but there are several ripples of low pressure threatening to develop off the East coast along with subtle shortwaves dropping into the mean trough that just make predicting wind direction at this time futile..... i just can't get my hopes up yet. That said, the ingredients are lurking with quite a bit more synoptic moisture and Delta T's nearing the extreme range (~30C) if some of these latest runs were to materialize. Lake Ontario is still 48 degrees! Also, I ended getting free tickets to the Bills game this Sunday. I was really hoping for a snowy game but that seems quite unlikely unless we can somehow slow down that weak little surface low that slips by Saturday. Even if that happened, its pretty moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Long range still looks good for quite a few shots of snow/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18z next Tuesday has a nice LP that looks to deepen rapidly near WNY and deliver a good synoptic snowfall...gfs means have Syracuse to buffalo with a solid foot of snow...The setup screams for alot of lake enhancement south of lake Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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