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Upstate/Eastern New York


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10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Newest run of hi-res NAM shows the band getting up to the city and even into the northtowns for a little bit late Wednesday.. maybe it's higher resolution is picking up on some of tat early season thermal troughing...

Spits out 8" of snow in a matter of 6hrs with lots to go..

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10 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

These totals a quite paltry to say the least but really not concerned with snow totals but noticed winds may veer enough next weekend to get us in on the action for as several hrs, then there are several synoptic chances as well. Notice how New England always seem to do well, even moreso, than Syracuse, lol.

eacb0929685b81213e97b15504eb2448.jpg

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Hey, I used my riding mower today to mulch up some leaves!  If its not gonna snow...I could live with this all winter long. ;)

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Hey, I used my riding mower today to mulch up some leaves!  If its not gonna snow...I could live with this all winter long.

Yeah, that's what we might be dealing with all Winter, lol, jk.
I'm at the point where it's starting to become comical, seriously. Will we ever get a band to sit over us for longer than 2 hrs, lol, at a time. It's absolutely hilarious but, these are the brakes, lol!
When was the last time Fulton actually saw over 2ft, in an event?
I can't remember the last time it occurred, as this snow belt used to be quite active, but that has since changed, for some unknown reason.

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This is one loaded pattern we are going into. Goin to be some last minute kinda surprises with a pattern like this lots of energy diving in from nw Canada. Notorious for models having a hard time with. As in regards to lake snow I think it will be a mainly wsw type flow for most part. That will extend into rochester at times. I see the flow becoming more nw later in month. And especialy into January. But there will be plenty of synoptic systems as well. 2/3 of country will have a white christmas

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Good Morning!!!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

NYZ010-011-041645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171208T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very
  difficult at times, including the morning and evening commute on
  Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches are
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and
  deep snow cover on roads.

IMG_3909.JPG

IMG_3910.JPG

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Winter storm watch for all of WNY except Alleghany county...niagara and Orleans until 10 pm Wednesday,  Northern Erie until 4am Friday,  10am for Southern Erie County and not certain about southern tier...NWS calling for 1 to 2 feet buffalo metro, 2 feet plus for southtowns and 1 to 2 feetfor southern tier...looks to be another, in my opinion,  impressive response starting next Sunday...here we go!!!

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15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Good Morning!!!!


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

NYZ010-011-041645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171208T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very
  difficult at times, including the morning and evening commute on
  Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches are
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and
  deep snow cover on roads.

IMG_3909.JPG

IMG_3910.JPG

Right in the 18-24” zone not far from the 24”+ zone! 

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Just a couple years back 

114F6D00-3544-461F-985F-B1CA1304F735.thumb.png.097d6c04f9f665b4ba876e85fe48f222.png

It seems as though ppl have a hard time reading sometimes, lol. I said NOTHING about a season did I? No, I said when was the last event Fulton got over 2ft? The last time a band sat over them for a day or 2?
Anywhere, can nickel.and dime their way to an above normal snow yr, especially in and around the lakes.
Funny thing is, this is usually how Syracuse makes their avg, by nickel.and diming it's way, every yr, lol.
Last yr we had the Nov blitz and that was it, and we still made it to avg but without any memorable events.

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1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

It seems as though ppl have a hard time reading sometimes, lol. I said NOTHING about a season did I? No, I said when was the last event Fulton got over 2ft? The last time a band sat over them for a day or 2?
Anywhere, can nickel.and dime their way to an above normal snow yr, especially in and around the lakes.
Funny thing is, this is usually how Syracuse makes their avg, by nickel.and diming it's way, every yr, lol.
Last yr we had the Nov blitz and that was it, and we still made it to avg but without any memorable events.

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Well don't forget we did have the March storm last year...about 2 feet around KSYR.  Granted it was synoptic and not lake effect.  But, that's what got us to avg snowfall last winter season. Bookend season with nickel and dime events in between.

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Hi res NAM shows band getting into the northtowns for quite a period of time. I think the northtowns could do quite well as well and I think the sweet spot will be further north than the models are showing now. I could see this being almost exactly like 2010 in regards to placement of the heaviest snows  but I don’t think it’ll stay in place long enough to drop the same totals as that event however I think 1-2 feet could fall from Lackawanna and West Seneca all the way up to Tonawanda and Clarence. 

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13 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Hi res NAM shows band getting into the northtowns for quite a period of time. I think the northtowns could do quite well as well and I think the sweet spot will be further north than the models are showing now. I could see this being almost exactly like 2010 in regards to placement of the heaviest snows  but I don’t think it’ll stay in place long enough to drop the same totals as that event however I think 1-2 feet could fall from Lackawanna and West Seneca all the way up to Tonawanda and Clarence. 

Agreed...the early season events always shift a bit more northward than forecast...channel 7 was the worst this morning and looked out to lunch,  Kaylee on 4, who im not a fan of, showed the band taking shape square in the northtowns and into the city by 6am Wednesday  already. On a side note, next Sunday through Tuesday really has my attention as well. Lot's to talk about and follow over the next 5 to 7 days it appears.

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Looks like a spread the wealth LES, won't see insane totals because of the transient nature of the band.

With respect to accumulations, Lake Erie typically will perform
slightly better than Lake Ontario in these southwest to west-
southwesterly flow scenarios. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 feet
of snow is likely for many locations in the Buffalo metro area south
to the Boston Hills and into Genesee/Wyoming Counties. Locally 2+
feet is possible for locations in the Buffalo Southtowns. For Lake
Ontario, 1 to 1.5 feet of snow is possible for much of the
Watertown/Fort Drum area, with some locally higher amounts possible
across the northern Tug Hill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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