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December Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

I am not trying to cause an argument but how is this close? You're never going to get a system to come far enough West with a trough axis like this. This is the type of setup where Southern NJ, Eastern LI and the Cape can catch a few inches. For something more meaningful, major changes need to occur.

sketched_5a2806d6ba1d6.png

Not so subtle reminder: Eastern long island is in this subforum, and the model discussion doesnt have to be only about "meaningful" events. If the models continue to show a light snow event for parts of our area, it should be discussed. 

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Just now, BxEngine said:

Not so subtle reminder: Eastern long island is in this subforum, and the model discussion doesnt have to be only about "meaningful" events. If the models continue to show a light snow event for parts of our area, it should be discussed. 

I believe my post acknowledged that Eastern LI could see a few inches. I clearly stated "more" meaningful meaning affecting a larger area.

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19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not sure if anyone has already posted this but the 06z RGEM was pretty far West and cold for the Friday night into Saturday potential event. 12z is running as we speak.

In any event, we have two main things working against us, the first being a positively tilted trough and the second being that the energy involved in forcing the surface low is actually weakening by the time it reaches us. 

I_nw_EST_2017120600_091.png

This far out Wouldntt this just be the GGEM... doesn’t he RGEM just turn into the GGEM after 48 hrs

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And if you were to extrapolate out past 84hr on the NAM, that would likely be a nice event for the NJ coast on NE. The offshore low would strengthen and keep throwing moisture back. 

Not saying it’s correct or should be weighted heavily, but this can still be a nice snow event for many of us with some not farfetched changes. 

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It matches the other medium range guidance which shows a positively tilted trough and a coastal scraper at best.

Thats the 1st wave and not the storm 

that piece shears out 

the second max is back in Mexico and doesn't eject out off GA until hour 66 - 69.

 

You're looking at the wrong time frame 

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3 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

12z gfs even further east, not even close. Continues with the trends of the gfs, euro, gefs and eps of pretty much a total miss. I’m not going near the 84hr nam or navgem or Canadian unless the gfs or euro, the two superior models, start to show some improvement. 

Eps wasn't a miss

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Listen no disrespect and I hope it snows. However, I can’t  hump late runs of the nam or navgem or Canadian. You and Paulie decide to I’m not sure that’s the ship you want to go down with this early in the winter. But right now I’m seeing it like a beach ball and when you get in a zone like that best just to ride the hot hand. 

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22 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

12z gfs even further east, not even close. Continues with the trends of the gfs, euro, gefs and eps of pretty much a total miss. I’m not going near the 84hr nam or navgem or Canadian unless the gfs or euro, the two superior models, start to show some improvement. 

Ahhh, the 6z GEFS dropped .3 into CNJ 

.5 to brick  which was a slight improvement from its 0z run.

 

The EPS brought .2 into S Monmouth County.

Either you don't have access to the models or you're just trolling.

The UKMET is the # 2 skill score model and that dropped .6 in Monmouth County last night.

The GFS OP is the only model missing. 

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11 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Ahhh, the 6z GEFS dropped .3 into CNJ 

.5 to brick  which was a slight improvement from its 0z run.

 

The EPS brought .2 into S Monmouth County.

Either you don't have access to the models or you're just trolling.

The UKMET is the # 2 skill score model and that dropped .6 in Monmouth County last night.

The GFS OP is the only model missing. 

Brick and southern nj aren’t this forum. They might see a light wet accumulation. Euro op nothing, eps nothing, gfs op nothing, gefs a few wound up members but largely nothing. 

 

You can have the rest. Lie down with dogs, wake up with flees. 

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Just now, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Brick and southern nj aren’t this forum. They might see a light wet accumulation. Euro op nothing, eps nothing, gfs op nothing, gefs a few wound up members but largely nothing. 

 

You can have the rest. Lie down with dogs, wake up with flees. 

What part of .2 .3 into Monmouth did you miss lol.

And the NAV GGEM UKMET are way more 

Thats not P Cloudy like you are calling for 

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