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December Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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This is be a situation that may evolve quite a bit over the next 2-3 days. Often the WAR has been stronger than forecast at this range, and pieces of energy/inverted troughs are always tough to call at any range. The best outcome would be the ridge flexing a little more and forcing the low to track closer. 

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1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Welcome back.... but you’re missing one thing. If the trough goes neg....

IF....Mr Savalas could sing, he may have sold out the Garden!!! :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J94-_w9ARX0

 

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http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

bring me guidance that shows a neg tilt trough and I will bite 

 

 

A_96hr500.gif

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/

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Our Friday sat storm looks DOA...however heights rebuild and a trof digs with a more consolidated piece of energy to work with at its base, trof goes neutral and our system rides the coast, NE gets hammered.. late Tuesday into wed next week...encouraging amount of storm opportunities, were bound to cash on 1 

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2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Our Friday sat storm looks DOA...however heights rebuild and a trof digs with a more consolidated piece of energy to work with at its base, trof goes neutral and our system rides the coast, NE gets hammered.. late Tuesday into wed next week...encouraging amount of storm opportunities, were bound to cash on 1 

Yea that was about 50 mi E of being a MECS for NYC/HV...low reaches 959 at 216...shows what the pattern is capable of producing

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1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

GEFS definitely shifted west with the precipitation for Friday into Saturday’s event. Let’s see if this could turn into a trend!

It’s hard to count out a suppressed event that would become something with a little more amplitude on the ridge. We’ve seen these shift west last minute numerous times the last few winters. 

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My Main concern for this Friday event, Is our elongated piece of energy, we’ve yet to see a model run that consolidated our energy around the base of our trof, no matter how strong our WAR is pressing, it won’t matter if we have strung out energy profiles along the base of our trof, were just going to get an elongated area of low pressure... look for 500 to consolidate energy at our trof basin for a snow storm 

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39 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

My Main concern for this Friday event, Is our elongated piece of energy, we’ve yet to see a model run that consolidated our energy around the base of our trof, no matter how strong our WAR is pressing, it won’t matter if we have strung out energy profiles along the base of our trof, were just going to get an elongated area of low pressure... look for 500 to consolidate energy at our trof basin for a snow storm 

Like the NAM? NAM slows the whole thing down digging the trof and trying to consolidate the energy way down South at the end of the run. Almost implies that there would be a delayed but not denied SECS if the run went to 96+ hours. But alas, the NAM doing it's NAM'ing thing probably. 

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20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Like the NAM? NAM slows the whole thing down digging the trof and trying to consolidate the energy way down South at the end of the run. Almost implies that there would be a delayed but not denied SECS if the run went to 96+ hours. But alas, the NAM doing it's NAM'ing thing probably. 

Extrapolated NAM would probably be an 8"+ hit. H5 is spectacular. Too bad its the NAM.

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