UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, EPS is not as close to the coast with the wave as the op, still a long way to go for this one Long range members look good, gonna be a tough pattern to track down which energy will be our main player... I’d expect anything significant if it happens would be a 48-72 surprise, highly doubt models lock into anything upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 If we end up with the same models underdoing the WAR issue which we've seen every winter since 13-14 then this has a good shot of happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If we end up with the same models underdoing the WAR issue which we've seen every winter since 13-14 then this has a good shot of happening The last few winters were crazy with that, yes. Literally every model would underdue the WAR until the last 36 hours before a storm would go from being a flurry to an advisory or warning event. The one caveat is those winters all had ++NAO, which was allowing the WAR to press. As of now, the NAO looks neutral to slightly negative this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 glance at this and one would think... major EC storm but the LP is set on western edge of the trof, and we actually rain/subsidence till it’s too late, far interior sees snow.. odd set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Storm never transfers quick enough despite beautiful H5... that was just the closest we’ve been IMO to something big... 500 was beautiful, we just need the timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Pretty clear trend on GFS, that trof was flatter than flat last couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Pretty clear trend on GFS, that trof was flatter than flat last couple days The low should have transferred further south due to the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 57 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 1 glance at this and one would think... major EC storm but the LP is set on western edge of the trof, and we actually rain/subsidence till it’s too late, far interior sees snow.. odd set up The low on this map should actually be well inland, probably over Adirondacks given where the best divergence is. For a big snowstorm for us, that closed 500 low should be 200 miles east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The low on this map should actually be well inland, probably over Adirondacks given where the best divergence is. For a big snowstorm for us, that closed 500 low should be 200 miles east of that. Yeah a little SE then we could be in business. Most important Euro run this far incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 06z gfs looked very interesting. I do think the threat late this week is legit, a bit of a double whammy possible particularly up towards New England. So much to figure out, so many things that could go wrong, but possibilities closer than clown range are starting to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Although long range. Nam and gfs are similar at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Euro is a miss very similar to the gfs- we need the trough to scoot west about 100 miles and the low to ride the trough while it intensifies. Right now every model is a miss for Friday into Saturday storm Plenty of time for this to change just our chances are looking slim. Euro has a decent clipper for Sunday morning that drops our first accumulating snow 1-3 inches areawide it looks like Also next Wednesday day 10 fantasy land brings a nice overrunning system that drops up to 10 inches area wide low of 983 sitting just south of long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: With the 12z EPS coming west, the OP Euro may return to showing some snow for the 9th on the next run. We'll see... 12z 0z If we look back at all of our bigger snow events in the metro area since January, 2000, they have mostly come on the backside of cold patterns, as they are breaking down, not on the frontside as they get established or in the midst of a cold pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 18z GFS is closer to the coast with the coastal than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z GFS is closer to the coast with the coastal than 12z That's a fantastic western ridge, large moisture axis with this. It reminds of the storms from 13/14. It wouldn't take much to give us a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a fantastic western ridge, large moisture axis with this. It reminds of the storms from 13/14. It wouldn't take much to give us a moderate event. GFS shows 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: GFS shows 2-4 inches More eastern Long Island. I’d take 2-4 and run The pattern is progressive so it doesn’t have a chance to amplify but if it slowed a little we can get some good snows here. Still far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 With the ongoing AO-/PNA+ dual blocking forecast to be in place for Friday-Saturday, I think it's a pretty good possibility that parts of the Metro area will see their first accumulating snow of winter 2017-18. An inch or more is also on the table, as such dual blocking has seen frequency of 1" or greater snowfalls that is 160% of all other cases when such dual blocking was not present in December (December 1950-2016). Overall, things remain on course for a colder and snowier than normal December in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 South jersey FTW? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 ...No one mentioned the 12z euro for the 13th? I know it's 10 days but this is the model thread, no? Edit: Just seeing now it was mentioned... whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Eps has 1-3 inches with the coastal for the weekend for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps has 1-3 inches with the coastal for the weekend for the area Trends went the wrong way for snow overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Freezing fog out this way this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Thickest frost of the season by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Trends went the wrong way for snow overnight. Not sure I agree with this statement. 8th-10th on means have ticked up snowfall again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Trends went the wrong way for snow overnight. No they didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 12z gfs not a flake through the weekend. Like I said, trending in wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: 12z gfs not a flake through the weekend. Like I said, trending in wrong direction. “Crankyweatherguy” on twitter has a whole new detailed tweet chain explaining why this weekend is going to be a total non event for the metro area. Just snow showers that at best may amount to a dusting or coating. Here is just one of his tweets on this, check out his other tweets as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Nice little 2 events on the Euro for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nice little 2 events on the Euro for this weekend Can you go into a bit more detail for those with out paid access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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