George BM Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Falling temperatures. Whitening grounds? White Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 Meteorological Winter starts with temp/dewpt of 45/45 w/ clearing skies IMBY following a brief and light evening rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 36 for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Low sun angle for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 4 hours ago, Sparky said: Low sun angle for the win. You get 4 inches on your deck yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 28 in McHenry currently. Hopefully Garrett performs well with upslope/LES over the next few weeks - would certainly help the ski resorts kick off with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 I apologize in advance if this season is a fail...I just purchase a single stage snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Nice frosty early December morning. 27 Looking forward to low 50s later. Another round of leaf removal today. Getting close to the end, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Another epic bust on low temps at BWI. Forecast was 34 and bottomed out at 27. Pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Another epic bust on low temps at BWI. Forecast was 34 and bottomed out at 27. Pretty bad. The only thing I can think of that would be causing such busts is that someone/something is applying the GFS’s new UHI algorithm to its low-temp forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: The only thing I can think of that would be causing such busts is that someone/something is applying the GFS’s new UHI algorithm to its low-temp forecasts. Yeah, one of our forum mets said that, but even last night's Euro had me at 32-33. I'm thinking maybe it's low soil moisture, but even that is taken into consideration in the models so who knows. But, low busts seem to happen in the decent winters, so there's that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Another epic bust on low temps at BWI. Forecast was 34 and bottomed out at 27. Pretty bad. My forecast low was 32. So 5 under here. Pretty ideal radiational cooling conditions, and it is December. Using MOS guidance etc you would think they could get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 An 8 degree bust here...no UHI factored into the models in the sticks. Forecasted low of 32...hit 23.8. Still 27.5 with very heavy frost this morning which almost looked like snow on the ground at dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 6 hours ago, poolz1 said: An 8 degree bust here...no UHI factored into the models in the sticks. Forecasted low of 32...hit 23.8. Still 27.5 with very heavy frost this morning which almost looked like snow on the ground at dawn. Had heavy frost here in McHenry too and did a double take that it snowed last night. Low was 4 degrees below the forecast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Did anyone know it was supposed to rain this morning? Nothing about rain in my forecast last night. Looks like it will clear out this morning, but not exactly fun putting up Christmas lights with wet ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Either some really big rain drops out there or some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Yeah - raining. Totally didn’t have that in mind as a possibility this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Either some really big rain drops out there or some sleetPretty sure I heard some sleet as well, but not positive. Also had no clue it was going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Weather Underground had drizzle in my forecast for last night, so no surprises here. Now for the likely penultimate clearing of the lawn of leaves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I’m marking this down as my first T of the season as there was definitely some sleet mixed in with the light rain on my deck. Low of 28, about 7-8 degrees less than forecast. I don’t remember seeing anyone call for rain here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Models only really started picking up on this morning's rain yesterday with the HRRR being the most aggressive showing light rain overspreading the region. Three days ago it looked like a fairly clear morning was on tap. Two days ago it looked partly cloudy w/ a very weak disturbance. Yesterday is when pockets of light drizzle/rain started being detected by the short range models. Needless to say, this would have been a big surprise for some had it been a couple of degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 It was a nice "winter" day on the Eastern Shore. A lot of haze/fog out on the water in the afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 28 this morning with fog. Lots of frost on the deck and car, although maybe its freezing fog. Either way its sort of cool and a bit eerie out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 35 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 28 this morning with fog. Lots of frost on the deck and car, although maybe its freezing fog. Either way its sort of cool and a bit eerie out there. It's a beautiful morning! I stopped at a lake near work and took a few pictures on the way in today. I'll check them out this evening to see if there's anything decent to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 No fog at home departure (about 6:30), but hit a wall of fog on Rte 3 in Bowie. After turning westward it got to be wicked thick fog in Bowie. Then, went back to reasonably good visibility by the time I hit Mitchellville. Significant windshield scrape this morning too. Winter knocking on the door perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 low of 28, frost and some freezing fog around this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Into the 30s with moisture.. forecasted low was 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 When Pacific wave train is broken and pattern changing storm moves through, always verifies colder. sometimes with sleet on front side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I know we're all frustrated because it's never going to snow, but let's realize that our pattern changing cold FROPA is about to happen which was modeled more or less accurately 15 days out. -NAO not going to verify as strong as first hinted, but the -EPO/-AO/+PNA sure will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I know we're all frustrated because it's never going to snow, but let's realize that our pattern changing cold FROPA is about to happen which was modeled more or less accurately 15 days out. -NAO not going to verify as strong as first hinted, but the -EPO/-AO/+PNA sure will. Warm/wet. Cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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