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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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Always think of the nao as the trap door, keeps cold locked in. The pna is the driver,spikes up and forces cold air down. So if your neutral to slightly pos and the nao is tanking. Then you can get air to come down and stay around for a while. Actually we should do well with the forecasted indicies. 

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11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Eric Webb @webberweather 1h1 hour ago

 
 

Whatever legitimate warm-up was supposed to occur after this week especially near the end of November into early December is progressively going down right the drain & may be limited to a day or two/ the half-width of a s/w ridge in the north-central US & southern Canada

Much welcome change from the seemingly never ending years recently of projected cold that never arrives until after winter.   How many December’s and January’s were supposed to be cold only to torch.... Winter weather or not it’d be nice to have WINTER for a change! :)

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2 hours ago, GunBlade said:

Much welcome change from the seemingly never ending years recently of projected cold that never arrives until after winter.   How many December’s and January’s were supposed to be cold only to torch.... Winter weather or not it’d be nice to have WINTER for a change! :)

Last winter delivered the goods post Christmas! February sucked, but the rest was rockin, deep into spring!

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I would really love to see a cold December with SNOW for once in the RDU area. Every December since 2011 has been mild and snowless in this area. Last December was especially frustrating with the Deep South getting a significant snowfall and me getting cold rain. Maybe our fortunes will change this year...I hope so! 

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53 minutes ago, Thor said:

Some serious Cold starting to show up in Canada/Pac NW around first of December

fv3p_T850_namer_65.png

1030mb High over WV.. 1007 Low with trough over Texas/Oklahoma...

 

That needs to be monitored

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16 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Seriously?

Yes, if you're north of the Mason-Dixon!

Actually it is something to look at. Given that the Canadian cold north of the 1030 is just marginally cold, I would like to see a little stronger high; maybe 1035, 1038, something along those lines, although the location helps as well.

The biggest problem I see with set up is the low placement, waaay to far north for us. Would need to track along the gulf coast; say NO to JAX. But you don't want the low to crank up much either; brings in too much warm air.

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Yes, if you're north of the Mason-Dixon!
Actually it is something to look at. Given that the Canadian cold north of the 1030 is just marginally cold, I would like to see a little stronger high; maybe 1035, 1038, something along those lines, although the location helps as well.
The biggest problem I see with set up is the low placement, waaay to far north for us. Would need to track along the gulf coast; say NO to JAX. But you don't want the low to crank up much either; brings in too much warm air.
It's at hour ~5000! A little far out there to be monitoring specific lows, don't you think? (If I somehow missed the dry humor, I apologise.)

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

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Yeah the FV3 continues to show a colder pattern for the east in the medium to long range compared to the OP GFS. This from the most recent 0Z run: 

3DFB7488-190D-4B44-B98C-0D44D582177B.jpeg

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With so many things appearing to fall in our favor for the long range, now is the time to step back and ask ourselves "what can go wrong."

TW

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31 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

With so many things appearing to fall in our favor for the long range, now is the time to step back and ask ourselves "what can go wrong."

TW

Sun sngle, ground temp, planetary alignment.  Pick your poison lol.  The cliff will never be too high to jump from!  Not referring to you.

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26 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Sun sngle, ground temp, planetary alignment.  Pick your poison lol.  The cliff will never be too high to jump from!  Not referring to you.

models not showing the warm nose as the low bombs offshore until the NAM shows 8" of snow change to 3" of sleet and rain 36hrs out while we argue that the NAM is trash and to trust the gfs/euro ensembles showing a foot of powder....

 

all hypothetical of course.

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The real question is whether a rain event will coincide with the cold air dump.  The Southeast usually has a problem getting both rain and cold air to come together at the same time. :thumbsdown:

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2 hours ago, tarheelwx said:

With so many things appearing to fall in our favor for the long range, now is the time to step back and ask ourselves "what can go wrong."

TW

Surface temperatures above freezing, warm air nose, or warm soil temperatures. One of the three always seems to show up in the month of December. 

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3 minutes ago, CyclonicFury said:

Surface temperatures above freezing, warm air nose, or warm soil temperatures. One of the three and a wide array of other killjoys always seems to show up in the season of winter. 

FYP!!

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4 hours ago, tarheelwx said:

With so many things appearing to fall in our favor for the long range, now is the time to step back and ask ourselves "what can go wrong."

TW

 

3 hours ago, GunBlade said:

Sun sngle, ground temp, planetary alignment.  Pick your poison lol.  The cliff will never be too high to jump from!  Not referring to you.

 

3 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

models not showing the warm nose as the low bombs offshore until the NAM shows 8" of snow change to 3" of sleet and rain 36hrs out while we argue that the NAM is trash and to trust the gfs/euro ensembles showing a foot of powder....

 

all hypothetical of course.

 

1 hour ago, CyclonicFury said:

Surface temperatures above freezing, warm air nose, or warm soil temperatures. One of the three always seems to show up in the month of December. 

You all forgot a classic:

 

Too strong of a high, dry slot, and deep enough cold to cause major suppression that leaves everything off the coast.

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6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

 

 

 

You all forgot a classic:

 

Too strong of a high, dry slot, and deep enough cold to cause major suppression that leaves everything off the coast.

Oh. And thunderstorms in the panhandle robbing our moisture. :)

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Us in the south have about 100 things that can go wrong not to get a snowstorm and up in the midwest or northeast it snows at nothing.  

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43 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Oh. And thunderstorms in the panhandle robbing our moisture. :)

 

30 minutes ago, Southern Track said:

When that really does happen it hurts the most.

Most brutal scenario of all

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48 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

 

Most brutal scenario of all

Moisture-robbing thunderstorms only ever occur when all other factors actually fall into place for a major winter storm.

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23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Moisture-robbing thunderstorms only ever occur when all other factors actually fall into place for a major winter storm.

Yep, it is no fly in the ointment, it is a whole spider...

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