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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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Surprised early next week is not generating a little more discussion.  At least fun to have something to keep an eye on before Thanksgiving! In these parts that's a rare thing....  

From GSP AFD:

A reinforcing short wave is currently depicted by long range models
help deepen a long wave trough over the Central U.S. early next
week. Surface low pressure is expected to develop along the tail end
of a stalled front along the northern Gulf of Mexico and ride
northeastward somewhere into the Southeast US in advance of the
deepening trough over the Central US. This setup can be favorable
for winter weather across portions of the FA (especially mtns).
However, it will still only be mid November and cold enough air for
wintry precipitation can be difficult to come by. As of now
increasing precipitation early next week looks to be mainly in
liquid form except for possibly the highest mountain elevations. The
unsettled weather will likely support below normal temps early next
week with even colder conditions possible in the wake of this storm
system just beyond the current seven day forecast.
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13 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Surprised early next week is not generating a little more discussion.  At least fun to have something to keep an eye on before Thanksgiving! In these parts that's a rare thing....  

 

I've tried to pull the alarm bell this thread and mtn thread. Although they've  caught on and are just patiently hanging back to avoid a Lucy Pull the ball. Impressive pattern coming for this early in the season. Without a doubt the slopes have the opportunity to get a jump on the ski season

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17 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Surprised early next week is not generating a little more discussion.  At least fun to have something to keep an eye on before Thanksgiving! In these parts that's a rare thing....  

From GSP AFD:


 

I'm very optimistic about seeing measurable snowfall up here next week. And the cold coming behind it is pretty remarkable too.

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12z GFS has the western two thirds of NC getting at least some light snow next Tuesday night. Accumulation not likely outside of the mountains but I like seeing snow on the models this early! 

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11 minutes ago, CarySnowLover said:

12z GFS has the western two thirds of NC getting at least some light snow next Tuesday night. Accumulation not likely outside of the mountains but I like seeing snow on the models this early! 

Yeah, for the past few days the models have been showing some possibility of frozen precip around the 14th. It's not unprecedented, outside the mountains, to get some change over snow/sleet this time of year. Heck we've even had accumulating snow but that's much rarer.   

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7 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Pictures?

It was storm warning amounts. Up to 1.0 on forsyth yadkin line back toward wilkesboro, and alot of.5+ as well in the red areas on NCHailstorm precip type map. Long ways to go with this one. Euro does a trailing wave after cold gets locked in thanks to cad. 

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Cold rain sucks! And the GFS is dry! We all know how this will end! Dry cold snap, then Thanksgiving-Christmas torch, more cold rain in January 

Followed by a blockbuster Feb.-Mar.

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Cold rain sucks ! And the GFS is dry! We all know how this will end! Dry cold snap, then Thanksgiving-Christmas torch, more cold rain in January 

Lol

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This November reminds me a lot of Nov '97... Wet and cold.  I love it.  Got the fireplace going.. been in the 40's all day.

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As we near mid-November its time to really start paying attention to the longer range pattern. Don’t know if it will hold, but there is some indication that we get to a -AO around the first of December. If so, we could get this winter started on a good note.

FD63465A-3DEC-47A8-AFF5-C71E84A7DD1F.jpeg

DB5A10BD-33A2-486D-BB60-D79BB2B40E13.jpeg

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