Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,499
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    binbisso
    Newest Member
    binbisso
    Joined
Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Minimum 64 “ rates will overcome “ comments, per winter month! (D,J,F)

That is true so I didn't think it needed to be said.  The problem around these parts is we rarely get those kind of rates.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, WeatherNC said:

Legit signal for the 27-28th, dominant SLP track west of the Apps would introduce SVR probs to the east this time of year with a meso transfer...

You had me at SLP. :mapsnow:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

We await your forcast with great anticipation........

I apologize for ruffling feathers. But the way JB gets bashed on this board and that guy gets a free pass because he used to post here confused me. I can't speak for what he was like years ago, but I've read his stuff for the last few years and his record isn't that good from what I see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I apologize for ruffling feathers. But the way JB gets bashed on this board and that guy gets a free pass because he used to post here confused me. I can't speak for what he was like years ago, but I've read his stuff for the last few years and his record isn't that good from what I see.

There are many on this forum, including myself that have learned a great deal about forecasting from this man. His patient answers to questions over the years are among the things that have made him revered here. His knowledge of NC CAD and the nuances of the weather it creates give him few peers in that area. The other side of that to us that know some of his personal side is he is a great guy. He loves a good snowstorm as much as the rest of us wienies. As to the bolded, show me some one that has a good one over the last few years. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FV3 still bringing it,inside 10 days now.

Deep trough with a healthy storm coming up the coast at day 9-10.582dm height line all the way down in Miami,that's something you see in mid winter.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Robert is my personal favorite forecaster. He is incredibly talented and knows the micro-climates of NC/SC/GA very well. Yes he misses badly sometimes but his forecasts put people like Brad Panovich to shame. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, frazdaddy said:

There are many on this forum, including myself that have learned a great deal about forecasting from this man. His patient answers to questions over the years are among the things that have made him revered here. His knowledge of NC CAD and the nuances of the weather it creates give him few peers in that area. The other side of that to us that know some of his personal side is he is a great guy. He loves a good snowstorm as much as the rest of us wienies. As to the bolded, show me some one that has a good one over the last few years. 

That's exactly my point. There isn't anyone that can do it. My only problem is people paying for forecasts that are really just an educated guess. I know people put in a lot of time and money into this. I respect that. But in my opinion there are other ways to get people to donate to your cause than outrageous headlines. And I think we know most are guilty of that at some point. I read his forecasts. Along with JB and DT and everyone else. But usually the outcome is somewhere in the middle of the conservative tv Mets and the extreme solutions put out by a few.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

That's exactly my point. There isn't anyone that can do it. My only problem is people paying for forecasts that are really just an educated guess. I know people put in a lot of time and money into this. I respect that. But in my opinion there are other ways to get people to donate to your cause than outrageous headlines. And I think we know most are guilty of that at some point. I read his forecasts. Along with JB and DT and everyone else. But usually the outcome is somewhere in the middle of the conservative tv Mets and the extreme solutions put out by a few.

Do you have a Doctor, A financial analyst, A Stock broker? Same thing. Either way it's their $ and they wouldn't do it if it didn't give them value.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

I apologize for ruffling feathers. But the way JB gets bashed on this board and that guy gets a free pass because he used to post here confused me. I can't speak for what he was like years ago, but I've read his stuff for the last few years and his record isn't that good from what I see.

I used to enjoy JB and listened to him in the AM on WSJS radio in Winston on my way to work.  That was when he stuck to weather instead of politics. I've written him off due to his vehement denials of climate change. His Twitter has degenerated onto one snarky attack after another about the issue. If you want to be treated like a professional you should act like a professional.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just what we need for our mosquito problem....

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Temperatures Sunday night are forecast to drop into the mid 30s across a large part of central North Carolina. This will lead to areas or patches of frost to form across most of the area by daybreak Monday.

Maybe we can drop a few more degrees and get that first freeze as well; dewpoints will be in the 20s. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/17/2018 at 3:57 PM, frazdaddy said:

Do you have a Doctor, A financial analyst, A Stock broker? Same thing. Either way it's their $ and they wouldn't do it if it didn't give them value.

Medicine is a science.

Financial analysts and stock brokers provide negative value over the long-term. Bad example :-P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, a5ehren said:

Medicine is a science.

Financial analysts and stock brokers provide negative value over the long-term. Bad example :-P

Last time I checked so was weather. Still opinions that provide information good or bad. YOU missed the point.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I started following this board back when Robert didn’t have a paid site.  Biggest thing I found was that he had ALOT of knowledge for climo in this area.  At times that lead him to nail storms and other times miss.  Same as everyone else out there. 

Unfortunately we are all humans and we all have our downfalls and shortcomings.  Some choose to put them on display for others to see in their careers while others don’t.  There’s a popular saying that 60% of ppl neither like or hate you, 20% like you and 20% dislike you.  The same holds true for the people we like or don’t like.  There are going to be ppl we don’t like no matter what and ppl we like no matter what.  Is what it is, it’s a part of life and doesn’t change who we are or who the other person is.  

The weather will still be there no matter what and that’s why this board is here. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎10‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 3:38 PM, GunBlade said:

I started following this board back when Robert didn’t have a paid site.  Biggest thing I found was that he had ALOT of knowledge for climo in this area.  At times that lead him to nail storms and other times miss.  Same as everyone else out there. 

Unfortunately we are all humans and we all have our downfalls and shortcomings.  Some choose to put them on display for others to see in their careers while others don’t.  There’s a popular saying that 60% of ppl neither like or hate you, 20% like you and 20% dislike you.  The same holds true for the people we like or don’t like.  There are going to be ppl we don’t like no matter what and ppl we like no matter what.  Is what it is, it’s a part of life and doesn’t change who we are or who the other person is.  

The weather will still be there no matter what and that’s why this board is here. 

I agree, Robert Gamble is one of the best meteorologist in the area and a big snow wienie. He from time to time may be a bit too excited about he possibilities for the next "Big one". But hey he's human like the rest of us. Let's take this disco to banter before Mr. Burns makes us dust the erasers. 8^)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

Last time I checked so was weather. Still opinions that provide information good or bad. YOU missed the point.
 

Let's face it. When the rubber meets the road, all of this falls into a form of basic statistical analysis. You determine a problem or a desired positive result and look for a cause. In medicine, you have a disease and search for something you see over and over and you determine if there's a connection, and if so, the causation of the repeating observation. Same with finances, science, behavior, fishing and weather. If the fish tend to be biting more when it's cloudy, you'll fish when it's cloudy. If you get spanked for hitting your sister, you'll quit hitting your sister. If it snowed in the past when certain conditions occur, we go weany mode when we see these conditions. None of this results in a perfect prognosis, else cancer would have been cured aa long time ago. And as for Robert, I really appreciate his insights into our weather patterns!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possible (..possible) freeze on Sunday night. I would say the best chances will be those normally cold places like Roxboro and Sanford. 

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Saturday... Winds will stay up through the morning as the cold dense high pressure builds in from the W. Expect strong subsidence and generally clear skies. Thicknesses start the day nearly 50 m below normal, so despite the sunshine, we should see much below normal highs in the mid 50s to near 60. The surface high settling over the W Piedmont under clear skies with decoupling and diminishing winds Sun night will create ideal radiational cooling conditions, bringing about a concern for a frost or freeze. The low end of statistical guidance does indicate that outlying areas of the Piedmont could see an hour or two of 32-34F, but some modification of the air mass will have taken place by then, and such a duration would not be enough to threaten a killing freeze. Will maintain a mention of patchy frost over much of the Piedmont and adjacent Sandhills, but will hold off on any sort of freeze watch at this time, given the uncertainty and that the cold temps are still 36 hours away. -GIH

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

We need whatever we can get Falls to kill these 'skeeters.

We'll get it eventually. A good frost will also do the job as well. Lets see how tomorrow night goes.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/16/2018 at 9:26 PM, WeatherNC said:

Legit signal for the 27-28th, dominant SLP track west of the Apps would introduce SVR probs to the east this time of year with a meso transfer...

The system is still there, but in recent model runs it appears to be a coastal runner instead of inland/Apps track, lessening the severe threat. Still a week out, however.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro and EPS going with the deep trough the FV3 has been showing for a week,starting day 6-7.Don't know about a storm mixed signals on that.

582 dm line in the Miami area again,someone better go chop a load of firewood soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×