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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

With the amount of rain I've received over the last month (~half inch), I absolutely believe the latest GFS:

It varies quite a bit run to run.....could be a pretty nice cool shot right after the 4th.....I hope it pans out as I am at the river for the week after the 4th and mid 80's and some clouds are way better than mid 90's and sun.

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12 hours ago, downeastnc said:

It varies quite a bit run to run.....could be a pretty nice cool shot right after the 4th.....I hope it pans out as I am at the river for the week after the 4th and mid 80's and some clouds are way better than mid 90's and sun.

Anything under 90 is a win this time of year. I'm heading to the outer banks the middle of July. Hoping for some nice weather. 

Related to that, the GFS has been constantly showing below temps for the outer banks. (but)Other models don't show this detail. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2018062812&fh=84

Move backwards and forwards in time to see the anomaly. 

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The general wet pattern over the SE has been impressive.  It looks to continue.  I know parts of the upper SE have not had as much rain, but after a 5-7 day stretch, chances should pick up again.

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The general wet pattern over the SE has been impressive.  It looks to continue.  I know parts of the upper SE have not had as much rain, but after a 5-7 day stretch, chances should pick up again.

Hey buddy, hope all is well. We seem to be right on that imaginary line. I can hear the thunder but it's mostly wide right with the rain.

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1 hour ago, frazdaddy said:

Hey buddy, hope all is well. We seem to be right on that imaginary line. I can hear the thunder but it's mostly wide right with the rain.

Hey man, yeah things are going well.  Hope you're having a good summer so far.  Same here.  We had a doozy a week ago.  Neighbor's tree smashed our trampoline, but we got it cleaned up.  Not much since then.  Definitely heard a lot of thunder though!  I hope we get into a pattern where we start to get some late evening/early nighttime storms.  Those are the best.

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Nino-ing through the Arctic:

f360.thumb.gif.c11f79342ab5a347679c035be783b01d.gif

The snow is being dispersed unequivocally.

500gz_anomalies_nh.gif.7833f601a032eaf99e56836787deb7ce.gif 

Cloud seeding and sublimation being captured rapidly....

hgt_aao_cdas.gif.1dbcf27e1479e2d5e9bd938e7f2f08d6.gif

Too deep to make it back in time.

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12 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Nino-ing through the Arctic:

The snow is being dispersed unequivocally.

Cloud seeding and sublimation being captured rapidly....

Too deep to make it back in time.

I see what you did there.  Well played. :clap:

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It seems like when we get something good this time of year, we end up having to pay for it:

Temperatures will be much below normal on Saturday with low-level thickness values near 1390m near the VA border, H8 temps below 15C, and a fair amount of cloudiness. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much more sunshine on Sunday will lead to a nice weather day in most locations with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs moderate into the upper 80s to lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. The warming trend continues for Wednesday and Thursday. Opted to stay below WPC guidance which includes a high of 100 for Thursday and stick with highs in the lower to mid 90s for now. -Blaes

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On ‎7‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 4:38 PM, FallsLake said:

It seems like when we get something good this time of year, we end up having to pay for it:

Temperatures will be much below normal on Saturday with low-level thickness values near 1390m near the VA border, H8 temps below 15C, and a fair amount of cloudiness. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much more sunshine on Sunday will lead to a nice weather day in most locations with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs moderate into the upper 80s to lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. The warming trend continues for Wednesday and Thursday. Opted to stay below WPC guidance which includes a high of 100 for Thursday and stick with highs in the lower to mid 90s for now. -Blaes

Quoting my own post to make the point that models are bad all year long. Just a couple days back it was looking like we could see a triple digit threat the end of this upcoming week. Now the models have backed off to the point we may see below normal temps (..lots of 80s for highs).  

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Not a single day with a high of 90 or higher IMBY on the 06Z GFS, many days where upper 70's low 80's.....thats pretty crazy for mid to late July average high is 90/91 here this time of year. 

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Not a single day with a high of 90 or higher IMBY on the 06Z GFS, many days where upper 70's low 80's.....thats pretty crazy for mid to late July average high is 90/91 here this time of year. 

@DownEastnc, I watched a video that says in essence, We are entering "Phase #6" and Well be  in a "cool period"? for the next 60 Days or so? Thoughts? 

flip.JPG

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5 hours ago, SENC said:

@DownEastnc, I watched a video that says in essence, We are entering "Phase #6" and Well be  in a "cool period"? for the next 60 Days or so? Thoughts? 

flip.JPG

flip2.JPG

That would be awesome.

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