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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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Some of the 18Z and 0z the model runs started to trend more north with the potential Wednesday event. They look to have stopped that trend and even shifted back southward with the 6z runs. I like what the NAM is showing, particularly for NC. Some of these models are showing over 4" but we have to keep our expectations down to maybe getting another output like last week; whereas somebody lucky might see 3" but most (in the snowfall areas) will see less than 1". 

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From RAH:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

916 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

 

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-191330-

Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-

Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-

916 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

 

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

 

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

 

A low pressure system will result in a chance of rain and snow

Tuesday night into Wednesday. While confidence in details remains

low, a light accumulation will be possible.

 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

 

$$

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5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

From RAH:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

916 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

 

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-191330-

Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-

Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-

916 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

 

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

 

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

 

A low pressure system will result in a chance of rain and snow

Tuesday night into Wednesday. While confidence in details remains

low, a light accumulation will be possible.

 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

 

$$

Yep I think GSP is out to lunch right now, I think the mountains see some accumulations out of this if models hold.

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1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

Yep I think GSP is out to lunch right now, I think the mountains see some accumulations out of this if models hold.

The 12z NAM shifted the goods north. The MA folks are loving the numbers (> foot).

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How are y’all seeing the NAM so far out?   I can’t see past Tuesday.   

Also it is concerning that NAM shifted north.  It has been on the money with every other system it seems like.  GFS is also pathetic. At least 6z

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3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

IT’S NNNNOOOOOOOOTTTTT GOING TO SNOW!!!!!!!!

Just trying to make it not so silent. :D

Silly man. It will snow way up there where no one is... And we will be amazed. Happy face.

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3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

IT’S NNNNOOOOOOOOTTTTT GOING TO SNOW!!!!!!!!

Just trying to make it not so silent. :D

You are right...it will not snow in Raleigh...so you are accurate

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36 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

You are right...it will not snow in Raleigh...so you are accurate

3km nam would disagree. 

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_60.png

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Overnight runs don't look great.  Maybe some rain/snow mix or flurries.  That's about it for central NC.  

About all we can hope for now is the model runs today to bring this more south, a bit.

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49 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Overnight runs don't look great.  Maybe some rain/snow mix or flurries.  That's about it for central NC.  

About all we can hope for now is the model runs today to bring this more south, a bit.

Yeah I'm not liking the trends. If models don't shift back south today (by 12z), I think flurries or snow showers will be best we can manage. But I'm actually ok with that solution. It's spring and I'm ready to start the season. **winter keeps gasping for that last breath of air...  

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The 12Z NAM, both 12KM and 3KM varieties, show a little snow for central NC in the morning hours on Wednesday.  Could mess up the morning commute a little bit.  

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30 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Anyone have the new euro?

There are some good pics in the mid Atlantic forum and it’s crushes them but in nc mostly rain east of the mountains 

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RNK says I have a chance of at least seeing some snow fall. 

TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain. Snow likely after midnight. Snow
accumulation up to 1 inch. Cooler with lows in the mid 30s.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...A chance of snow in the morning. Cloudy with a
chance of rain. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the
lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain with a slight
chance of snow in the evening. Little or no snow accumulation.
Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. 

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Local AFD calling for "flurries" here locally..

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
335 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Possible strong to severe
thunderstorms will occur ahead of the low on Tuesday with
potential for a few flurries in the mix as colder air moves in
on the back end on Wednesday.

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