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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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From a winter lover’s perspective, there is just no reasonable way you can grade this winter below a B+ for the Triad, heck almost all of North Carolina. Significant snow in early December AND mid March, plus several lows in the single digits. What a La Niña it was!

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Accumulations this season in Downtown Raleigh

Dec 8-9: Dusting

Jan 3: 1"

Jan 17: 4.5"

Mar 12: Dusting

The Jan 17 event was slightly disappointing since we were so close to areas that saw a foot. But it was okay because I drove to Hillsborough and went hiking in their foot the next day.

I give this winter a B- based on accumulating snow in MBY but bump it up to B+ due to the proximity to larger snowfall, the record cold we had (never seen our lakes/rivers frozen so hard!), and the large number of days between first and last snow (could that increase yet...?)

Looking at the reports for all of this year's storms, Roxboro seemed to do quite well (2.4" in December + 1.5" in January I + 11" in January II + 4" March = 18.9") plus subzero readings during the cold spell.

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RAH afternoon discussions stated the chance of some flurries and maybe a snow shower overnight and tomorrow morning:

Another vigorous upper level trough dropping across the western

Great Lakes this afternoon will drop into the southern

Appalachians tonight and swing through the mid-Atlantic on

Wednesday. While deep layer moisture is limited, the forcing for

ascent is robust and sufficient to generate clouds and some

spotty light precipitation late tonight and Wednesday morning.

Convection allowing models provide a fairly consistent message

in timing and location. Larger scale models pick up on this

feature with the GFS being very aggressive in precipitation

amounts with the NAM and EC with limited if any QPF.

 

Clouds will continue to increase this evening from the west and

northwest. Patchy light precipitation (flurries perhaps a snow

shower) may break out in the southwestern Piedmont late this

evening and then spread east and perhaps expand east/northeast

overnight into the morning hours. Given limited confidence and

QPF amounts, PoPs will be capped at around 35% in the

southern/central Coastal Plain with mainly slight chance PoPs to

the west. The thermal profile would support mainly snow with

more of a rain/snow mix in the Coastal Plain by mid morning.

Regardless, the precipitation will be scattered and convective

and generally light. Given the cloud cover, temperatures will

fall into the lower 30s in most locations. Thus, no

accumulation is expected. As the upper trough shifts, east the

main cloud shield will move toward eastern NC during the

afternoon. Northwest to westerly flow will promote enhanced

mixing and gusty winds during the afternoon. Winds will be

northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts of 25 to perhaps 30 MPH.

Highs will be in the 40-45 range in the north to 45 to 50 range

in the south. -Blaes

 

Then they had this statement for the long range:

Monday will be dry and seasonal with temps in the 60s before another
low pressure system rolls in from the west and deepens over central
NC late Monday night or Tuesday. Depending on the track and timing
of the low and proximity to central NC, we will have to monitor this
system for the potential for strong convection or wintry
precipitation

 

 

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Looks like winter is finally over, in terms of winter weather threats.  Still looks like some chilly periods over the next couple of weeks, but any more snow chances look exceedingly low/non-existent.

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4 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Looks like winter is finally over, in terms of winter weather threats.  Still looks like some chilly periods over the next couple of weeks, but any more snow chances look exceedingly low/non-existent.

Yepp, transient cold shots at best. I'm ready for happy hour on the dock!

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29 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Yepp, transient cold shots at best. I'm ready for happy hour on the dock!

Yeah brother, and martini's with take out subs on the front porch. 

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RAH:

For early next week, another strong low pressure system will track 
across the Ohio Valley, with patchy to widespread rain developing 
ahead of the low due to modest isentropic lift Monday into Monday 
night. As the low deepens and moves offshore, expect wrap around 
rain showers on Tuesday, and there is a chance that we could see 
enough cold air advection to cause a brief mix with snow across the 
northern tier before the precip ends late Tuesday.

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53 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Okay. I am in the Triad.

But you're below 2k, so that's a strike against you! You have a better shot than me for  sure, but still very unlikely at this stage; IMO,  for whatever that's worth.

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9 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Looks like winter is finally over, in terms of winter weather threats.  Still looks like some chilly periods over the next couple of weeks, but any more snow chances look exceedingly low/non-existent.

I'm interested to see if we can end up with March colder than February.  We are off to a good start.

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I'm interested to see if we can end up with March colder than February.  We are off to a good start.

I think there's a very good chance of that. The temps never got below freezing after the first few days of February. 

 

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Yepp, transient cold shots at best. I'm ready for happy hour on the dock!

I'm ready for people to stop looking at me strangely just because I'm wearing shorts and flip-flops. I do it year round except when it's raining or snowing.

 

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3 hours ago, wake4est said:

❄️❄️

7D7F688B-2D8C-41B5-B719-DBD4D8213EE1.png

That would be a nice late season gift for many. But, man, can it get any closer to the upstate without actually hitting it? Unfortunately, this seems to be the new climo!

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Not too enthused with this threat, looks like this storm evolution is going to involve a LP transfer, of which any modeled snow here occurs after this transfer. I have 0 confidence that any model will handle this right because it looks like a touch of CAD will develop before the approach of this system. There's going to be wonky solutions showing up in regards to this transfer simply because this CAD has to be modeled correctly before the transfer can be modeled correctly, and we're not going to see decent consensus until the higher res models come into play (what else is new). The Canadian has snow breaking out during the low transfer, which I don't buy at all. Don't think we'll really know how the thermals react to the transfer until the higher res models come into play as well. It does look like a solid freeze afterword though :( 

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