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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z GFS moved away a bit from its idea of a stronger lead wave moving through TN.  12z CMC looks similar to GFS.  Both look pretty good in your area Buddy.  CMC has kind of been between the farther north GFS and weaker, farther south Euro/UKMet camp, and may be a good middle ground.  For NC, it looks too warm on the front side of the storm, except for maybe the northern mtns...then there could be some changeover for some areas depending on how the backside wave evolves. 

I’m thinking it may be hard to get it to accumulate however, given sun angle and time of year. Would really have to pour down. I do like where I sit at present though. 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z GFS moved away a bit from its idea of a stronger lead wave moving through TN.  12z CMC looks similar to GFS.  Both look pretty good in your area Buddy.  CMC has kind of been between the farther north GFS and weaker, farther south Euro/UKMet camp, and may be a good middle ground.  For NC, it looks too warm on the front side of the storm, except for maybe the northern mtns...then there could be some changeover for some areas depending on how the backside wave evolves. 

I’m thinking it may be hard to get it to accumulate however, given sun angle and time of year. Would really have to pour down. I do like where I sit at present though. 

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The soundings don't really support snow until lunch/afternoon and that's when the system is moving out...  Cold rain until the cold air is established at which point most of the QPF is gone.  

I should clarify this is for the Raleigh area.

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25 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The soundings don't really support snow until lunch/afternoon and that's when the system is moving out...  Cold rain until the cold air is established at which point most of the QPF is gone.  

I should clarify this is for the Raleigh area.

...and it will always switch over later than expected

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Well I think having low expectations is warranted.  It's a rain to backside snow scenario which is fraught with question marks.  Upper wave on the Euro has a nice track for parts of NC, but would prefer it to trend stronger.  GFS and CMC have been improving some as well with the wave.

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Dangit, which one of you didnt stop doing the snow dance at the end of Feb??  This is seriously messing up my yardwork efforts.  Looks like cold chasing moisture for the Triad but my point and click now says 2".  Rates could overcome ground temps as they have cooled quite a bit from last week.  But this isnt a heavy hitter.  Doesnt look to be an overnight event so daytime heating and sun angle work against accums.  And the temps look borderline as well until you get into S VA.  So I'll vote against anything more than a snow shower and hope Buddy gets in one last hurrah.  Enjoy Buddy!

Now back to spring.

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flurries here in Todd for the past 2 hours...BTW I peeked in to the mid-atlantic forum and they're cliff jumping and kinda hectic...admitting my sins...hope we get a nice event before spring

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44 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Ukie bombs the storm out.

980mb and deepening, sitting between Duck and EC nice and snug

It looked similar to the morning Euro with the wave.  The backside precip blossoms nicely as it rolls thru the Carolinas.

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KGSP AFD

12” possible...

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE MILLER-A LOW SHAPES UP, LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL   PICK UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND IT'LL BE A BIT OF A   RACE TO SEE HOW FAR INTO THE PIEDMONT THE COLD AIR SPREADS BEFORE   THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS. ONE THING WE CAN BE FAIRLY CERTAIN OF IS   THAT THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE   MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD AIR REALLY PUSHES IN ALOFT. THE   COLDER THE AIRMASS, THE HIGHER THE SNOW RATIOS GO, BUT ACROSS   ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT AVERAGE OUT   AROUND 12:1 OR SO. AS THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW RAMS INTO THE   APPALACHIANS, THIS IS WHEN WE COULD REALLY SEE SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS   PILING UP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WE PUSH TOWARD   DAYBREAK MONDAY. CURRENT QPF AND EXPECTED INCREASING SNOW RATIOS   LEAD TO SOME HEFTY AMOUNTS, AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT QPF   HAVE TONED THIS DOWN A LITTLE, BUT IN GENERAL HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE   TO ASSUME WE'LL LIKELY HAVE WARNING CRITERIA *AT LEAST* ACROSS THE   NORTHERN THREE, AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SW ALONG THE TN LINE INTO THE   SMOKIES. FOR NOW, HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM   WATCH FOR YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY; GENERALLY THE 4" CRITERION SHOULD   BE MET (WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST) LOOKS LIKE ABOVE 3KFT, BUT ONCE   YOU GET UP TO 5KFT AND HIGHER, WOULD NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED IF WE   END UP SEEING SOME TOTALS APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING A FOOT. HAVE   KEPT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ABOUT 9-10" AND THAT'S PRETTY ISOLATED.   LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SMOKIES   (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NUTTY NAM WHICH IS PAINTING >15" THERE). WOULD   LIKE TO NOTE THAT THE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z-18Z MONDAY;   BY ISSUING TODAY IT'LL BE ISSUED IN EST BUT VALID DURING EDT SUNDAY   NIGHT SO A LITTLE DST CONFUSION THROWN IN THERE WITH THE REST OF THE   MESS.     AS FOR THE PIEDMONT, OF COURSE THE NC PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCES   OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT THOUGH 850-700MB THICKNESSES WILL   BE COLD ENOUGH, SURFACE TEMPS AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST DON'T   CUT IT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS   PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING. AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY   AND MONDAY NIGHT, AT THIS POINT IT JUST SORT OF DEPENDS ON IF THE   MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW GETS ALL SNOWED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OR   IF THERE'S ENOUGH TO BREAK CONTAINMENT AND SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT;   GFS MOST EXCITED ABOUT THIS BUT LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR NOW.   TYPICAL POST-CAD/POST-COLDFRONTAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE   PRETTY SIMILAR TO IN-CAD/PRE-COLDFRONTAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY, AND AT OR   BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT, SO UNLESS THE DRIER   AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRY THE AREA   OUT (CERTAINLY MIGHT BE), WE COULD SEE SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES ON   TUESDAY MORNING.  

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