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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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2 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said:

I'm just glad to get back to seasonable temperatures and humidity. 70's or higher and high humidity is expected for half of the year here, so I can't stand it when it happens during the other half.

I agree. I just want RDU to get to freezing again. To have our last freeze of the year occur in early February would be horrible.

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The way this early March pattern is setting up I would go out on a limb and say WNC is a shoe in for some late season wintry precip. Everyone else, well we can only hope for some late season magic 

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GFS has been consistent with a cutoff low dropping down around March 8-10th. Need to watch this one and see if it trends further south as it could bring a nice surprise for some IF that happened. 

4C81D546-9EE6-45AE-9A4B-D22C69760A34.png

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So what happened in February? I have my opinion.

-First off solar became very hostile over the last 3-4 weeks with solar wind and EEP shooting upwards.Once that went the pattern/cold went with it.Solar wind pushing 600 and EEP pushing +8 or +9,that's WAY too high.This was the main problem that threw everything out of whack in my opinion.

-MJO stalled and looped as well,plus it seemed like it couldn't fight the La Nina when it did move.

-SSW although a strong one happened about 2-3 weeks too late for us.We'll fell the effects starting this weekend into the next 2 weeks I'd say.

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Could be one of the windier days in a long while ( outside of tropical system ) for a good bit of NC.....obviously the mts gonna gust 60+ but even the central and eastern parts of the state could go 50+ mph.....HRRR has 4-5 hrs with gust exceeding 40-45 knts for a large hunk of NC.

gust_t610m_f16.thumb.png.e5cf87cf68cc15f641d6288b59b48254.png

 

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What could've been our last chance, May go up west of the mountains (Surprise)! 

From deep in his bunker, JB - As far as the second one, well that could be the biggest of the bunch.A full latitude phasing day 8-11 a monster that is strong already in the south and just gets stronger coming northeast. Perish the thought but it could be a Texas to the west side of Appalachians storm as easy as further east, The gut feeling is one center up the west side of the Appalachians secondary SC coast then explode north, That is 8-11 days away.

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surprised no one talking about March 12 and 13, even GSP starting to say next week needs to be watched closely.  This would make sense, seems like during the ACC Tournament we get some degree of snow around the southeast. 

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1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

surprised no one talking about March 12 and 13, even GSP starting to say next week needs to be watched closely.  This would make sense, seems like during the ACC Tournament we get some degree of snow around the southeast. 

Our local TV met has also said to watch next Monday/Tuesday as we could be seeing some white stuff in the area. Still to soon to even start getting hopes up but we will see.

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Today's afternoon AFD from RAH...

Temperatures may actually be near normal Saturday and Sunday, 
dropping below normal once again behind the front Sunday night. The 
biggest forecast problem/concern with this system is the wrap around 
moisture behind the front as the low moves away from the area and 
whether the temperatures will be conducive for some wintry 
precipitation to occur. For now, will keep mention of any wintry 
precipitation out of the official forecast as temperatures (as of 
the latest model runs) remain above freezing, but not by much and 
heavier rates could still result in p-type issues, mainly across 
northern portions of Central NC.

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Here's the latest GSP AFD regarding this weekend's threat.  Interesting that someone mentioned how it seems to snow a lot during the ACC tournament.  I am 53 and it seemed like there was a lot of ice or snow at the ACC tournament every year when it was in Greensboro in the 70's and 80's.  Maybe just my feeble memory but sure seemed like there was a WSW about every year when the tournament rolled around.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Monday: The fcst for the weekend sure looks
interesting. After a break in the action Friday with flat upper
ridging and high pressure moving across the southeast, moisture
will begin to return from the Gulf and will spread across the
region Friday night ahead of a weak surface low. Isentropic
upglide may force the development of light precip overnight, and
that is fcst to improve on Saturday as the sfc low organizes to
the west. Precip prob rises into the likely range over the mtns
by the end of the day, and keeps improving from there. The high
precip chances continue Saturday night with the sfc low passing to
the south Sunday morning while a deepening upper low approaches
from the WNW. On that track, any severe weather chances would be
confined to the coastal plain. Heavy rain might be a concern, but
it is too early to mention in the HWO. Temps will rise back above
normal at least on Saturday and into Sunday morning. The interesting
stuff happens in the operational guidance on Sunday, with both
models bringing the center of the upper low down across our region
late in the day and off to the east Sunday night. The upper low
center would be accompanied by very cold air aloft, also meaning
very cold mid-level thickness and very steep lapse rates. Precip
would/could change over to snow over the mtns early in the day,
and then possibly change over to snow outside the mtns around
sunset Sunday evening as the very cold air aloft moves overhead. The
track and strength of the upper low is key. We have seen March snow
events like this in the past, when a cold upper low moves directly
overhead. That said, it is far too early to make significant changes
to the fcst at this time, without seeing a few cycles of the GEFS,
but a trend in a cooler direction will be started. So, for now,
we will keep this idea on a back burner. Precip will stay mainly
rain apart from the very highest elevations and temps will remain
on the warm side. Stay tuned, though. Precip should taper off to
the TN border area on Monday with more NW flow as the upper low
goes on to induce another major sfc low offshore.

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3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Here's the latest GSP AFD regarding this weekend's threat.  Interesting that someone mentioned how it seems to snow a lot during the ACC tournament.  I am 53 and it seemed like there was a lot of ice or snow at the ACC tournament every year when it was in Greensboro in the 70's and 80's.  Maybe just my feeble memory but sure seemed like there was a WSW about every year when the tournament rolled around.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Monday: The fcst for the weekend sure looks
interesting. After a break in the action Friday with flat upper
ridging and high pressure moving across the southeast, moisture
will begin to return from the Gulf and will spread across the
region Friday night ahead of a weak surface low. Isentropic
upglide may force the development of light precip overnight, and
that is fcst to improve on Saturday as the sfc low organizes to
the west. Precip prob rises into the likely range over the mtns
by the end of the day, and keeps improving from there. The high
precip chances continue Saturday night with the sfc low passing to
the south Sunday morning while a deepening upper low approaches
from the WNW. On that track, any severe weather chances would be
confined to the coastal plain. Heavy rain might be a concern, but
it is too early to mention in the HWO. Temps will rise back above
normal at least on Saturday and into Sunday morning. The interesting
stuff happens in the operational guidance on Sunday, with both
models bringing the center of the upper low down across our region
late in the day and off to the east Sunday night. The upper low
center would be accompanied by very cold air aloft, also meaning
very cold mid-level thickness and very steep lapse rates. Precip
would/could change over to snow over the mtns early in the day,
and then possibly change over to snow outside the mtns around
sunset Sunday evening as the very cold air aloft moves overhead. The
track and strength of the upper low is key. We have seen March snow
events like this in the past, when a cold upper low moves directly
overhead. That said, it is far too early to make significant changes
to the fcst at this time, without seeing a few cycles of the GEFS,
but a trend in a cooler direction will be started. So, for now,
we will keep this idea on a back burner. Precip will stay mainly
rain apart from the very highest elevations and temps will remain
on the warm side. Stay tuned, though. Precip should taper off to
the TN border area on Monday with more NW flow as the upper low
goes on to induce another major sfc low offshore.

The March 93 storm was during the ACC Tournament too. 

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Just beyond March Madness...

156 & 162 in Fantasy Land.. 

Remember the Ides of March 12th,, 2017?????

Or super Storm of 1993? 

 

156.JPG

162.JPG

StormAccums6.png

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Any possible wintry weather would be east and North of GSP. The above kinda shows that tendency. Cold would be too late for western upstate. Looks like a bona fide shot WNC and North and East of CLT.

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Just now, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Any possible wintry weather would be east and North of GSP. The above kinda shows that tendency. Cold would be too late for western upstate. Looks like a bona fide shot WNC and North and East of CLT.

Last years, Last March 12th (2017) storm actually over-performed here, a very nice event.. I got a 1", one-half snow & ICE..  (at least for here on the Coast)..

It's showing on the panels,, something to watch at least.. 

 

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52 minutes ago, SENC said:

Last years, Last March 12th (2017) storm actually over-performed here, a very nice event.. I got a 1", one-half snow & ICE..  (at least for here on the Coast)..

It's showing on the panels,, something to watch at least.. 

 

Yeah that was my point for the western upstate/ nega areas. Points east will have a much better shot. Spartanburg received a couple inches, I never even got a dusting. Looks like a pretty good potential for some, Robert likes TN, NC, VA, WV, KY mountains. Unless it digs way south and wraps colder in faster its nothing for me though. 

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The folks in the MA thread are going bonkers right now.  Looks like the potential for a significant event for them.  I am rooting for them.

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UK with a decent 50/50 should allow the trailing ULL to remain suppressed.  GFS still bouncing around, but north for the last 3 runs.

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14 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

 

index (3).png

We have the teleconnections where we need them for the SE to get winter weather

1.-NAO - first in a while

2.-AO 

3.+PNA 

4. And most importantly Blocking  

5.MJO is coming out in phase 2/3  

Do I wish this were January or February? Yes. But this can still deliver the goods even in March. 

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We have the teleconnections where we need them for the SE to get winter weather
1.-NAO - first in a while
2.-AO 
3.+PNA 
4. And most importantly Blocking  
5.MJO is coming out in phase 2/3  
Do I wish this were January or February? Yes. But this can still deliver the goods even in March. 
Gonna be too warm.

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10 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Looks like my father and stepmom in Bethlehem will be getting between 9-12" of snow through tomorrow night. Wish I was there.

This is the grid forecast for my peeps up in western Mass.....I was up there in Mar 2001 and my grandmother had 4-5 ft on the ground....looks like she could get 10-18" with this first storm. GFS nails VA pretty good on the 12Z run...

Wednesday
Snow, mainly after 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 30. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
 
 
 
 
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