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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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19 hours ago, Poimen said:

What's your point? 

Chuck always posts a bunch of stuff like this. Just look at his December prediction for the mid-Atlantic area. He said the cold the models showed wouldn’t verify and everyone would be AN. Instead those areas finished solidly BN during his timeframe, as did the SE. A 588 or 594dm HP isn’t unheard for this time of year in the SE. 

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16 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

It’s about time to turn the lights off and shut the room down for those of us farther south in the forum.  ATL, Columbia,  coastal SC.

ATL is probably going to rebreak their all time warmest February which they broke last year.  I’m estimating +9-11 now which would break it by 1-3 degrees 

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12 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

ATL is probably going to rebreak their all time warmest February which they broke last year.  I’m estimating +9-11 now which would break it by 1-3 degrees 

Already beginning to see buds show up on the trees.

The air no longer has that "winter" feel to it for sure. 

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After the freezing temps early this month, most will not see temps below freezing the rest of February. Overall temps will be way above normal if not breaking all time February warmth. If the pattern turns cold for March, I dare say there is a chance that March could end of colder than February with actual temp average. That would be the same as September being warmer than August.   

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7 hours ago, Powerball said:

Already beginning to see buds show up on the trees.

The air no longer has that "winter" feel to it for sure. 

going to be 75 here today. 

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5 hours ago, FallsLake said:

After the freezing temps early this month, most will not see temps below freezing the rest of February. Overall temps will be way above normal if not breaking all time February warmth. If the pattern turns cold for March, I dare say there is a chance that March could end of colder than February with actual temp average. That would be the same as September being warmer than August.   

2

With one major exception. A September warmer than August does not have the potential for major crop damage.

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13 hours ago, Powerball said:

Wow! As of today, few trees are already blooming. Crazy! 

Too early, these trees and bushes are going to get a killer frost or two before March and April are over.  NOAA already saying the whole month of March will be colder than normal for most of the country except for Texas and Florida.

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26 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Too early, these trees and bushes are going to get a killer frost or two before March and April are over.  NOAA already saying the whole month of March will be colder than normal for most of the country except for Texas and Florida.

Right now is the time to invest in peaches. 

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JB not giving in

shades of 1962?  Outlined yesterday on weatherbell.com  late Feb record eastern warmth and strong positive NAO tanked, and March 1962 turned stormy and cold.  Same kind of thing on table this year

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Apple trees popped, a few blossoms showing, peach trees look like they are getting ready as well.  :blink: Killer frost is likely some time in March, damn it all.  I really wish spring would hold on just enough not to kill off everything again like last year.

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7 hours ago, jpbart said:

Apple trees popped, a few blossoms showing, peach trees look like they are getting ready as well.  :blink: Killer frost is likely some time in March, damn it all.  I really wish spring would hold on just enough not to kill off everything again like last year.

We all remembered that one and the sad part is that we know a hard freeze is most likely coming sometime in March.

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If this is Mother Natures way of redeeming herself for the overpopulation of ticks and stinkbugs last year then bring on the freeze girl, bring it on.  Kill those damn things.

On a bright note, my yardwork is done so I will be safely snuggled in my recliner in March watching the snow gently cradle my grass seed into the soil.  You know dang well its coming.

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24 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

If this is Mother Natures way of redeeming herself for the overpopulation of ticks and stinkbugs last year then bring on the freeze girl, bring it on.  Kill those damn things.

1

Yeah, well, that won't work.

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Killing freeze is going to happen. We're too early in the year for the warmth to keep hold for another 8 weeks (..until most are safe). Already the LR models are showing a trough for the eastern US. Of course this is way out in fantasy land but the pattern will flip cold before it's done.  

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NAO is going to tank big time.  Late winter -NAO's are the most effective delivering cold/stormy wx to the east.  Winter is not over, people.

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5 hours ago, Wow said:

NAO is going to tank big time.  Late winter -NAO's are the most effective delivering cold/stormy wx to the east.  Winter is not over, people.

Are you sure about this? Many times the Atlantic pattern has not switched although it was on long term models going into March. NAO has been positive every day since Dec 1 and is most positive now. The blocking could occur, but it would be over Europe the arctic or something 

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26 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Are you sure about this? Many times the Atlantic pattern has not switched although it was on long term models going into March. NAO has been positive every day since Dec 1 and is most positive now. The blocking could occur, but it would be over Europe the arctic or something 

I'm a doubter too. All I know is the upstate is supposed to average +20 over the next 8 days and never go below 50. That is plain awful. Even if we get into a little better pattern it may be too late. A handful below normal for March is a no go for wintry weather. 

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9 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'm a doubter too. All I know is the upstate is supposed to average +20 over the next 8 days and never go below 50. That is plain awful. Even if we get into a little better pattern it may be too late. A handful below normal for March is a no go for wintry weather. 

No such thing as too late. Unless there is no pattern change in the foreseeable future. The -NAO has not been negative for any prolonged period during this winter (except for November, and 5 days of the start of met winter). Makes sense that it would go negative as shown by ensembles. You southern folks might be out of the game, but the northern folks are probably in the game until March 15th. At least in my opinion. Start hoping for a strong -NAO. The stronger the better for you guys. Given our luck in the DC area, the NAO will be strongly negative, negative enough to suppress storms to the South and jackpot you guys. 

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