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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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37 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Can you elaborate on what he is saying?

 

yeah the MJO which he was hedging on going into 8,1,2,3 is stalled in phase 7 He still thinks it COULD be widespread west to east cold and stormy March..........  But he has concern now. lol  Here's his heading this morning!

Phase 7 Blues  

The MJO on the GEFS is not coming out of phase 7   Which it had been showing it going into phase 8..... CFSV2 still shows Cold coming east last of the month and March, But it's on an Island by itself....

 

But things can change in a hurry, I still think some outside of the Mtns will get a decent snow before April. JMO

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We might get lucky and score a late season early spring storm. Theres always a chance. But for this ole boy its time for me to stick a fork in winter 17/18. Wasnt all that bad. BN Nov,Dec,Jan. 8 straight days below freezing, and ended up a tick above climo for annual snowfall.

Yall have fun  chasing severe wx, mosqituoes and a shady spot the next 9 months. I'm airborne and headed toward the bottom of the cliff.

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16 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

We might get lucky and score a late season early spring storm. Theres always a chance. But fir tbis ole boy its time for me to stick a fork inwinter 17/18. Wasnt all that bad. BN Nov,Dec,Jan. 8 straight days below freezing, and ended up a tick above climo for annual snowfall.

Yall have fun  chasing severe wx, mosqituoes and a shady spot the next 9 months. I'm airborne and headed toward the bottom of the cliff.

...another one's gone and another one's gone, another one bites the dust....... Phil would probably appreciate my musical humor with this one.

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25 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

We might get lucky and score a late season early spring storm. Theres always a chance. But fir tbis ole boy its time for me to stick a fork inwinter 17/18. Wasnt all that bad. BN Nov,Dec,Jan. 8 straight days below freezing, and ended up a tick above climo for annual snowfall.

Yall have fun  chasing severe wx, mosqituoes and a shady spot the next 9 months. I'm airborne and headed toward the bottom of the cliff.

I'm out too man. I usually wait to see how things look first few days of March but we're close to mid Feb and my low for next 15 days is showing 38. Could be wrong of course and there could be a 10 day window after that for something but I have no confidence there, sounds like a fairy tale. This is a lot like 2010-2011 with winter ending after mid Jan for MBY. Only difference is I had more snow that year.

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3 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Are you on the coast? Sounds like you don't care for cold/ snow? I would refer to a once in 25 year snow as AWESOME, not as "the worst." :D

I'm in Newnan, GA.

I'm originally from Detroit, so I was honestly kind of hoping for a warmish / snowless winter for a change. The "once in 25 year" snow that occurred here would be a run-of-the-mill snow event there.  :lol:

 

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4 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

yeah the MJO which he was hedging on going into 8,1,2,3 is stalled in phase 7 He still thinks it COULD be widespread west to east cold and stormy March..........  But he has concern now. lol  Here's his heading this morning!

Phase 7 Blues  

The MJO on the GEFS is not coming out of phase 7   Which it had been showing it going into phase 8..... CFSV2 still shows Cold coming east last of the month and March, But it's on an Island by itself....

 

But things can change in a hurry, I still think some outside of the Mtns will get a decent snow before April. JMO

Was the last paragraph his thoughts or yours?

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1 minute ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:
21 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Yeah I've not given up all hope, after all it's just Feb 11th

Robert at wx/south is talking cold last few days of February into March. 

Be something if we had another 1960 March or something close to it. 

No doubt the pattern will change to a cold one, But our averages are coming up quickly. So March we may be 10-15 below normal (which is a cold pattern for the date) for a few days but that would only be highs in the 50s lol...... But it just takes a right track LP and marginal cold air for a nice wet snow. That's what I'm hanging my hat on!!! I can see a perfect pattern with a lot of blocking but too late, probably April........:(  Hopefully the pattern changes last week of February!! Of course this is JMO and IDK So take with a huge grain of salt!

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In a VERY crappy pattern, It's possible to sneak a little something in, Just like the map Josh posted!!

TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers with a slight
chance of freezing rain in the morning. Cooler with highs in the
lower 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation
20 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. A
chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...A chance of snow showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy.
Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of snow 30 percent. 

 

Not saying it will happen, but as I said before don't need very cold air JUST marginal cold and good timing!!! 

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8 hours ago, JoshM said:

NAM tossing out a little ZR Tuesday night, as some very light moisture comes over the wedge.

namconus_asnow_seus_29.png

The 6z is not a robust on precip. amounts but it could get a little interesting. A nice CAD does set up with dew points down to the lower 20s by 18z Tuesday. We just need more precip. It could happen in the form of heavy drizzle, but we would need it just heavy enough to drop the temp to below freezing. **I would say this is unlikely to happen, but hey what else do we have to look at.

  

aaaa.jpg

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5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

In a VERY crappy pattern, It's possible to sneak a little something in, Just like the map Josh posted!!

TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers with a slight
chance of freezing rain in the morning. Cooler with highs in the
lower 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation
20 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. A
chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...A chance of snow showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy.
Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of snow 30 percent. 

 

Not saying it will happen, but as I said before don't need very cold air JUST marginal cold and good timing!!! 

The orientation of the precipitation (SW to NE) would increase the chance of the cold air overtaking the precip before it left. Again I'll say low chance (..much better for high elevations) but definitely something else to look at.

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This is crazy still nothing on the future maps showing any snow, can't believe the long range isn't showing some snow since we're still in winter with still some to go especially in the mountains.

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2 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

This is crazy still nothing on the future maps showing any snow, can't believe the long range isn't showing some snow since we're still in winter with still some to go especially in the mountains.

Pattern is as bad as it gets the next two weeks.  Alaskan Ridge, West Coast Trough, Southeast Ridge.:weep:

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12z GFS at day 5. As discussed above, there is a possibility of some wintery precip, but again I would say this is still a long shot. Best case is somebody seeing some wintery precip fall from the sky; which is still a win with this pattern.  

aaaa.jpg

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I know that there has been much wailing and gnashing of teeth over the trend to an early spring, however. I pulled the mulch off of my banana trees so they will start growing again, betting the warmth continues.   This means the chance for a late February, early March snowstorm has risen dramatically.  Considering the overall uncertainty in predicting weather a month away, this is likely as predictive as any other methods.  Just doing my part to help the cause.  :mapsnow:

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1 minute ago, Tacoma said:

This is what you call bad when no one here in the middle of winter has posted since 14 hours ago.  :ee:

Yep, nothing big happing. Small chance of something small in 5 days but even that is unlikely.

But dealing with the LR, the indices are interesting today:

PNA - Looks to stay negative (bad)

AO - Looks to go strongly negative (good)

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative (yes! I said strongly negative----great)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

EPO - Looks to stay negative (good)

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

 

So the question is, can the PNA screw everything up?

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

LOL....beat me to it. But the PNA is also negative......

Yeah, it's just that seeing an solid agreement on the NAO going negative like that it something we don't ever see.  IDK if it will help us but we will see.

Also, from what I've read the NAO will become the dominant driver going into end of FEB, early March.

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19 minutes ago, Southern Track said:

Yeah, it's just that seeing an solid agreement on the NAO going negative like that it something we don't ever see.  IDK if it will help us but we will see.

Also, from what I've read the NAO will become the dominant driver going into end of FEB, early March.

It's been a while since we had the NAO on our side during the winter time. Let's see if there's still enough cold air to block and tap into at the end of the month. Assuming the models are right about it going negative in the first place..

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1 minute ago, Southern Track said:

Yeah, it's just that seeing an solid agreement on the NAO going negative like that it something we don't ever see.  IDK if it will help us but we will see.

Maybe the AO helps feed cold air into NA, NAO will help force the storm track south, EPO keep a trough in eastern NA, and maybe a negative PNA will allow storm system to enter the US from the west. at least that's my dream... 

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