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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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16 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Depending on where people are I would expect to see wildly different grades for this winter. I agree, Def a "C" for me. No real lengthy torches, one good cold spell and general coolness otherwise, 2 small snow events, but not even equal to my seasonal average. If we get no more winter from here out I'll probably go with a C - for MBY.

It's funny....at my house it has been sub par (officially a dusting which I wasn't around for.. and around an inch of snow) but ive still seen snow several times, including a big and historic early season one and a modest ice event thanks to my trips to gainesville so for that reason it's been an above average one for me...lord knows I've seen many years worse than this one. 

I never really bought into the hype for February when everyone was optimistic...which looks like a good idea now...but right now I'm not convinced winter is over either. I know some  people love their indexes and teleconnections and all that stuff but I've been around long enough that it's rather silly to me to be declaring anything with too much certainty right now...not only because its only feb 7th and they can change but because things can happen when all the  indexes would say other wise.

But if it's over, look on the bright side....the mid Atlantic/DC  could end up with their second overall bad winter by their standards too...:devilsmiley: B)

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C+ here so far. 3 separate events with measurable winter precip.

That's above normal for my back yard. Total accumulation of 2.75 inches snow/sleet spread across two systems and a light glaze of ice with the 3rd system.

Not great, but right at my 25 year seasonal average.

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

C+ here so far. 3 separate events with measurable winter precip.

That's above normal for my back yard. Total accumulation of 2.75 inches snow/sleet spread across two systems and a light glaze of ice with the 3rd system.

Not great, but right at my 25 year seasonal average.

So far, I’m at 9.7” of snow from three events.  That’s right at 2” above climo I think, so I’m giving this season a B.  I’m counting my blessings because I’m not optimistic I’ll see much more if any.

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6" Snow, .15 ZR. That paired with the early January cold and some single digit nights, I give winter a B- so far. A late February blockbuster would be a great way to get an A :)

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Well, I have had my average snowfall for the winter (9 inches total in 2 events). We have had lower single-digit lows. One icing event (0.20") and it's only the first week of Feb. Granted the LR looks bad right now, but it will come around. Climo says I will get another chance before all is said and done. I'll give this winter a B- as it stands right now. 

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B- here south of I85. I've seen snow fall 4-5 times. Got a dusting in early December and a couple inches mid January. Then a light glaze of ice a couple weeks ago. We also had a cold snap that would have rivaled those of the olden days. Not a terrible winter by any stretch, but I would like to see a nice marginal event with lots of QPF before the season comes to a close 

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A+ I lucked out and got 9” in the Dec storm.  Picked up 2” more with the January system.   Yearly average is 2-3” so needless to say this part of north GA had an epic season to remember. 

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Going with burrel for here on a C.

3 separate events measuring a hair over 3". Better than expected for a nina. Just about average i guess.

Flooding February is sure delivering with 4.5" of liquid thus far.

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22 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Is this the ever elusive -NAO developing on the day 10 EC? Is it too little, too late? 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

If it happens, it could be just in time. Move things forward about a week (last few days of February) and hopefully a storm is on our doorsteps.

We can get significant winter storms up until the first week of March (..of course there's exceptions).   

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

If it happens, it could be just in time. Move things forward about a week (last few days of February) and hopefully a storm is on our doorsteps.

We can get significant winter storms up until the first week of March (..of course there's exceptions).   

Yeah, Feb 18 is not too late at all.

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Giving this until week of Feb 19th-25th or so, but we should start seeing something on the 10 day maps this weekend I would think/hope.

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B- for me this winter. 3 snow events. 4" for the 1st, 2" for the 2nd, and a heavy snow shower for our third. Along with record cold for early January. Would have been a A except for this month being so warm. Does look like winter is over for us as far as winter weather is concerned. I still hope for some freezes later this month and into early March.

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3 hours ago, yotaman said:

B- for me this winter. 3 snow events. 4" for the 1st, 2" for the 2nd, and a heavy snow shower for our third. Along with record cold for early January. Would have been a A except for this month being so warm. Does look like winter is over for us as far as winter weather is concerned. I still hope for some freezes later this month and into early March.

New Bern's average annual snowfall is under 2 inches, and 6+ gets a B-? Yikes. I've seen snow twice, with a T and 4.5 and would probably go C+ (CLT average right at 4 inches).

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21 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Epic failure for CAE! Definitely an F.

Man, you're strict. You are within 0.5" of your yearly average.

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The next week looks like absolute poop for the upstate. After tonight, the low through next Thursday is 48! Highs mostly in the 60s and I still have to build my ark. I HATE THIS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY! That's all I have to say about that.

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3 hours ago, Poimen said:

Don't look now, but the 18Z GFS has some light fantasy snow in NC hours 210-222. Woot!

Yeah this would be a nice little event to finish the year on....

gfs_asnow_seus_40.thumb.png.c6826472469ce0773fe61005e5eb7554.png

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The overnight runs offered little hope for a return to winter in the SE. There's still some time, I suppose, but you can sense the window closing quickly. 

 

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1 hour ago, Poimen said:

The overnight runs offered little hope for a return to winter in the SE. There's still some time, I suppose, but you can sense the window closing quickly. 

 

Yeah, the LR looks gross.

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On 2/5/2018 at 6:25 PM, LithiaWx said:

I’ve got bulbs starting to sprout.  What the hell?  It hasn’t been that warm recently.  It’s been a cold winter here too.  

 

It’s right about time for me to start some tomato seeds indoors before the transplant later in spring. 

What is the standard bloom date there?  I mean when I lived in OKC the early blooming stuff such as the Bradford pears in a normal year were out by 3/15-3/18.  You being further south than that I would assume 3/5-3/8 is pretty normal for the early stuff.  It doesn’t take much of a heat wave to push stuff out once you’re within about a month of typical blooming time is what I’ve noticed in New York over the years.  If we get a hot stretch in late March everything will open.  I know that last year Augusta lost their flowering azaleas well before the Masters, something that did not even occur in 2012 

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