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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

In my opinion, the winter has been ok to this point. I would give it a C (average). If we can get one more widespread SE storm it could become a good winter (B).

I would actually love to see a Miller B storm with a classic CAD setup. This would produce a wide range of precip types. I wouldn't mind seeing a snow, to sleet, to freezing rain, and then back to snow type storm. But all I can do is dream about it right now...    

I can't complain. Best winter I've had in 7 years, Chatham or Wake. Still holding hope that last week in Feb holds a surprise. If not it's time for those springtime thunder storms.

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29 minutes ago, Reedski said:

We didn't even get any winter weather in CAE and I'm ready to turn the page to Spring.

I am with you on this one brother.  Let's get spring going and my banana plants growing. B)

 

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If the GFS is to be believed, Upstate SC goes above 60 degrees at hr 114 and doesn't go back below 60 until 216....Jeebus..talk about a torch

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46 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

If the GFS is to be believed, Upstate SC goes above 60 degrees at hr 114 and doesn't go back below 60 until 216....Jeebus..talk about a torch

Look on the bright side, you'll save on the heat bill.     But pray you wont need AC.  

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I'm showing rain on my mobile weather app from Sat straight thru Thurs next week.  Are we going to have a system stall or something?

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24 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Look on the bright side, you'll save on the heat bill.     But pray you wont need AC.  

Should be pleasant with open windows tbh 

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Looking bad for us right now through next week, hope the week after and beyond have some fun and games.  :snowwindow:I hate it when its this quiet in here, means there is nothing on the horizon.  :weep:

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

I'm showing rain on my mobile weather app from Sat straight thru Thurs next week.  Are we going to have a system stall or something?

Looks like a freight train of rain out of the gulf, one batch after another.

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6 hours ago, WarmNose said:

If the GFS is to be believed, Upstate SC goes above 60 degrees at hr 114 and doesn't go back below 60 until 216....Jeebus..talk about a torch

Yeah, pretty crappy. Good news is it's the warmest model of the suite. Bad news is it's not by much. TWC, which basically uses the GFS run for automated forecast doesn't show GSP below freezing for next 15 days. Hopefully GFS is out to lunch as usual, would be a shame to waste the heart of Feb on spring, but it seems to happen more years than not. 

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11 hours ago, FallsLake said:

In my opinion, the winter has been ok to this point. I would give it a C (average). If we can get one more widespread SE storm it could become a good winter (B).

Depending on where people are I would expect to see wildly different grades for this winter. I agree, Def a "C" for me. No real lengthy torches, one good cold spell and general coolness otherwise, 2 small snow events, but not even equal to my seasonal average. If we get no more winter from here out I'll probably go with a C - for MBY.

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The era of really obvious long term model bias continues... They want to build a -AO I think because of MJO and Stratospheric warming, but it's not mathematical progression, and something intuitively else. My guess is it's different and this could change the outlook Day 7+ more than usual 

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12 hours ago, JoshM said:

Looks like a freight train of rain out of the gulf, one batch after another.

Below average temps and snow in December and January followed by El Nino like rain in February, remarkable for a warm and dry winter.

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Looking at the latest LR models and it's pretty disappointing. Again just going out to day 10. The euro does have a better pattern setup than the GFS; there's more of southward push of cold air (..still not great) and some signs of more cold air afterwards. I'll be interested to see the 12z.  

**GFS past day 10 (which we all agree is garbage), would signal spring is here.   

0z Euro 850 temps at day 10:

   

aaaa.jpg

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The 0z GFS is similar at 240, as well as the 6z.  Thereafter, the 0z sends most of the cold over to Russia.  Winter is over if that happens.  The 6z doesn't do that, but by 384, it is moving in that direction.  Could be wrong, but it has been laser-locked on that solution for days.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The 0z GFS is similar at 240, as well as the 6z.  Thereafter, the 0z sends most of the cold over to Russia.  Winter is over if that happens.  The 6z doesn't do that, but by 384, it is moving in that direction.  Could be wrong, but it has been laser-locked on that solution for days.

You"re right it has been locked into that for days.  Don't shoot the messenger, but a few mets have been saying that the models are really gonna have a hard time with the propagation of the PV downward, which IMO means they have no idea what's gonna happen.

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I'm a little confused about the source of the below indices chart:

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

It's slightly different than this site (which I think are both supposed to be GEFS, maybe different times):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

This first would indicate that the NAO could go negative in the long range. I also like that the EPO will stay negative.

You would think if the PNA is positive, AO is negative, NAO is negative, and EPO is negative; a good pattern would emerge in the coming model runs.  

 

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22 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I am floored that a la nina winter might end early.

What makes it aggravating is that it might end early despite so many positive indicators.  Someone will eventually be able to point out the fly in the ointment about why the pattern isn't a little closer to producing for us.

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