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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Awesome pattern setting up!

GFS.thumb.jpg.579d4fb9c5b323b42f6326dc86372c1f.jpg

Zonal flow with a death ridge over Florida and the gulf coast. I wouldn't exactly call that an awesome pattern. Unless of course, you would like an early Spring.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Do they like mild Pacific air?!

I hope so! No but in all seriousness, they have a better shot at frozen than we do with this craptastic zonal flow. Looks like Maine may be the big winner if this verifies 

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1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

I hope so! No but in all seriousness, they have a better shot at frozen than we do with this craptastic zonal flow. Looks like Maine may be the big winner if this verifies 

Maine is ALWAYS the big winner, every winter.;)

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34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Remember how great the pattern was looking so great about 2 weeks ago, then it flipped to torch? Could easily go back to a colder look in the long range!? Hope is all we got, unless your good at roping unicorns in!? ;)

Hopefully, it'll flip back before next winter. :(

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47 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Zonal flow with a death ridge over Florida and the gulf coast. I wouldn't exactly call that an awesome pattern. Unless of course, you would like an early Spring.

I was kidding.  It is not an awesome pattern in the least.  It's a monument to maximum suckiness.  The buffet is out of plates, the sneeze guard is broken and boogers are everywhere.

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16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I was kidding.  It is not an awesome pattern in the least.  It's a monument to maximum suckiness.  The buffet is out of plates, the sneeze guard is broken and boogers are everywhere.

Remember just the other day it seems like, you posted that magical pizzert, with all those great looking pizzas dropping down, now it just looks like a broke down Ci Ci's! :(

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Remember just the other day it seems like, you posted that magical pizzert, with all those great looking pizzas dropping down, now it just looks like a broke down Ci Ci's! :(

Yeah, looks like CR's Pizza Buffet opened up a new restaurant chain in Asia. All North American branches closed down indefinitely 

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I would be cautious with LR forecasts considering the situation up in the stratosphere. The trop precursor for the SSW is occurring right now if I'm not mistaken, and Feb 12-13 is the time frame the actual SSW to happen. GEFS is showing that the changes will propagate to the troposphere 7-10 days after the SSW. Now what exactly that means for us is TBD and I'll defer to the experts. 

I have to admit my Feb optimism has failed me so far, but climo says dream on until about Mar 5. EPS has both AO and NAO tanking by the end of the run and I'll hug it, no need to be cautious when the model shows what I want. 

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If you give any credence to the CFS, we may have a chance to sneak a wave into Baja California towards the end of February/ beginning of March.. Maybe we could squeak a marginal event out. I'm not sure what else there really is to talk about/hope for at this point. Just my two cents on the LRimage.thumb.png.1b49475c347bdd532d9bf36d7e5e2bb7.png

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Models will have no clue for a while yet what this SSW ends up doing. I remember the warmth in late Dec. 84 and the first 2 weeks of 85 then the bottom dropped out. What I find funny is how they are suddenly making a SSW a whole nother animal in the sense that it effects Eurasia only. It effects the entire Northern Hemphishere sometimes good and sometimes bad depending on where you are but for so many to discount this is ridiculous. 

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I'm with you guys on the LR models being shaky and so forth.  But phrases like "models won't be able to see the LR well until ___________________" are usually what show up right before a warm pattern.  I'm hopeful, that the SSW/AO/MJO/Bad Init/ETC are the flies in the model prog ointment.  But it would be nice to see at least a MOVE in the direction of a colder pattern before the end of Feb.

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47 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I'm with you guys on the LR models being shaky and so forth.  But phrases like "models won't be able to see the LR well until ___________________" are usually what show up right before a warm pattern.  I'm hopeful, that the SSW/AO/MJO/Bad Init/ETC are the flies in the model prog ointment.  But it would be nice to see at least a MOVE in the direction of a colder pattern before the end of Feb.

agreed its impossible to say what we will be seeing at 144 hrs a week from now... last couple of weeks haven't been great but we've made it through plenty worse in the last 7 years

if we could just get a little nudge into phase 8 (still very possible) I'd bet someone within the climo favored regions of the SE will see a nice little closer to winter

the nao really is killing us but ensembles are hinting maybe we will see it go neutral as we get into mid feb, as we saw in early jan neutral is leaps and bounds better than raging positive

this would be supported by the mjo nearing phase 8

ensplume_small.gif

of course the modeling looks horrid  right now, but when looking beyond 144 hrs remember verification scores

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23 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

agreed its impossible to say what we will be seeing at 144 hrs a week from now... last couple of weeks haven't been great but we've made it through plenty worse in the last 7 years

if we could just get a little nudge into phase 8 (still very possible) I'd bet someone within the climo favored regions of the SE will see a nice little closer to winter

the nao really is killing us but ensembles are hinting maybe we will see it go neutral as we get into mid feb, as we saw in early jan neutral is leaps and bounds better than raging positive

this would be supported by the mjo nearing phase 8

ensplume_small.gif

of course the modeling looks horrid  right now, but when looking beyond 144 hrs remember verification scores

Not sure how the Euro has been verifying, but it looks better than the GFS:

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Here's the JMA:

JMAN_phase_51m_small.gif

And the CFS from yesterday:

CFSO_phase_small.gif

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

All them against the GFS , looks good, but I think people were saying GFS is best with MJO forecasts!?

I don't know man,  it seems every met and legitimate weather forecaster I follow still are using the Euro as their go to.  Even with the SSW.  Evidently the GFS was forecasting an event earlier this season like what's supposedly coming up but the Euro wasn't, and it didn't come to fruition.  The Euro and the GFS are on the same page with the SSW this time that's why everyone is harping on it I think.

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I’ve got bulbs starting to sprout.  What the hell?  It hasn’t been that warm recently.  It’s been a cold winter here too.  

 

It’s right about time for me to start some tomato seeds indoors before the transplant later in spring. 

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21 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I’ve got bulbs starting to sprout.  What the hell?  It hasn’t been that warm recently.  It’s been a cold winter here too.  

 

It’s right about time for me to start some tomato seeds indoors before the transplant later in spring. 

Longer days and sun angle!

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4 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

I’ve got bulbs starting to sprout.  What the hell?  It hasn’t been that warm recently.  It’s been a cold winter here too.  

 

It’s right about time for me to start some tomato seeds indoors before the transplant later in spring. 

Photoperiod plays a larger role in seeing plants sprout, than weather. I've noticed the sun hanging higher in the sky in the last week. 

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7 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Photoperiod plays a larger role in seeing plants sprout, than weather. I've noticed the sun hanging higher in the sky in the last week. 

Yeah , the Daffodils will start poking their heads out mid Feb here.

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

As much as I would like more winter weather, I'm satisfied with the 2 events we already had in Wake.  At least we got something.

In my opinion, the winter has been ok to this point. I would give it a C (average). If we can get one more widespread SE storm it could become a good winter (B).

I would actually love to see a Miller B storm with a classic CAD setup. This would produce a wide range of precip types. I wouldn't mind seeing a snow, to sleet, to freezing rain, and then back to snow type storm. But all I can do is dream about it right now...    

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