Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

Recommended Posts

53 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

lol, I'm just joking of course. But it does look bleak for the next 2 weeks.  But there's always March 1960!

Yup, my previous optimism hasn't paid off, the ridge axis set up too far west for anything meaningful. Guess I was wrong lol. Cranky has been mentioning Feb 18-22 as a possible window for a coastal, I'm assuming the reasoning behind that is that the stormy pattern will be departing then. And the BSR supports. 

Some changes are happening in the strat too as I see a lot of knowledgeable mets think that the PV split is possible or even likely. The stratosphere will save us, let's get a March 2-3, 1980 redux!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

lol, I'm just joking of course. But it does look bleak for the next 2 weeks.  But there's always March 1960!

 

A thousand year event and two-thirds of this forum think we are overdue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, jburns said:

A thousand year event and two-thirds of this forum think we are overdue.

I've turned off the lights, shut my eyes and just can't see March 1960.  I would make it happen if I could. 

B)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, jburns said:

A thousand year event and two-thirds of this forum think we are overdue.

Do snow records go back that far? Which data base do you use? TIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jburns said:

A thousand year event and two-thirds of this forum think we are overdue.

Don't have easy access to historical records right now.  What exactly happened in March 1960?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Don't have easy access to historical records right now.  What exactly happened in March 1960?

Nevermind.  The link at the previous post answered my question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Don't have easy access to historical records right now.  What exactly happened in March 1960?

Snow on the ground and very cold for the entire month in the upstate of SC, 3 separate big events each spaced about a week apart. My great grandmother told me they had to walk through snow to get to Easter service?!?

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No one will give a crap until the model snow maps are loaded with snow, but reading thru the tea leaves, Anthony M (HM) seems to like the idea of some heavy blocking setting up in the last third of Feb due to a big stratospheric PV split,  favorable MJO, and poleward propagating -AAM. You know, all the unicorn factors.  Anyway, get ready :) :snowman:

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, griteater said:

No one will give a crap until the model snow maps are loaded with snow, but reading thru the tea leaves, Anthony M (HM) seems to like the idea of some heavy blocking setting up in the last third of Feb due to a big stratospheric PV split,  favorable MJO, and poleward propagating -AAM. You know, all the unicorn factors.  Anyway, get ready :) :snowman:

I'm diehard Carolina. Always have been always will be. I can and have pulled for state but never Duke. 

I always enjoy reading your perspective on the weather. You know what your talking about. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I'm diehard Carolina. Always have been always will be. I can and have pulled for state but never Duke. 

I always enjoy reading your perspective on the weather. You know what your talking about. 

I appreciate that, thanks.  I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted.  Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over.  Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I appreciate that, thanks.  I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted.  Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over.  Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha
Is HM Henry Margusity?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, tramadoc said:
1 hour ago, griteater said:
I appreciate that, thanks.  I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted.  Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over.  Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha

Is HM Henry Margusity?

Anthony Masiello on Twitter. He used to post on AmWx as "HM".  He's top notch with met knowledge and forecast ideas. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Anthony Masiello on Twitter. He used to post on AmWx as "HM".  He's top notch with met knowledge and forecast ideas. 
I do follow him on Twitter. Him and Michael Ventrice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Keep an eye on Valentine's Day storm! Looking good! PV will be split by then

What am I missing, do not really see any chances over the, well, for the rest of the season. Good that we are getting the rain though!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right now, the pattern looks horrid for snow for most of us for the next two weeks.  Beyond that, who knows.  But climo is waiting just beyond the horizon, though...just waiting to crush your very last snowy hope and drag you down into the depths of a warm and snowless spring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Right now, the pattern looks horrid for snow for most of us for the next two weeks.  Beyond that, who knows.  But climo is waiting just beyond the horizon, though...just waiting to crush your very last snowy hope and drag you down into the depths of a warm and snowless spring.

I haven't seen a warm spring in a few years. I'll welcome it if it comes. La nina springs are usually cold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

I haven't seen a warm spring in a few years. I'll welcome it if it comes. La nina springs are usually cold

When are you coming to Raleigh?  It’ll be plenty warm here.  You can help me with some landscaping projects! :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

When are you coming to Raleigh?  It’ll be plenty warm here.  You can help me with some landscaping projects! :D

get ready for the pollen storms! I expect multiple "yellow outs" this year, perhaps even 200m:1 ratios

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Right now, the pattern looks horrid for snow for most of us for the next two weeks.  Beyond that, who knows.  But climo is waiting just beyond the horizon, though...just waiting to crush your very last snowy hope and drag you down into the depths of a warm and snowless spring.

This is Phil Conners signing off from Punxsutawney  PA.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty much on schedule to me,MJO showing the stall/loop de loop like I thought in p7.Did it 3 prior times counting 09-10 and last December.Looks like it's gong to take 10 days until it finally gets a kick in the pants to move though so we'll see.

The 09-10 produced snow here Mar 2nd but realistically we have to about Mar 10th to get a hit.Not impossible after that but it gets difficult.

Carry on.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing looks certain.. the drought conditions many piedmont areas have been experiencing are about to be gone. Within the next 7 to 8 days 2 to 5 inches of rain looks likely for much of the SE

qpf_acc.conus (1).png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

One thing looks certain.. the drought conditions many piedmont areas have been experiencing are about to be gone. Within the next 7 to 8 days 2 to 5 inches of rain looks likely for much of the SE

qpf_acc.conus (1).png

CMC agreesimage.thumb.png.a6db2f07ccbcff8fff61099a04db7237.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

One thing looks certain.. the drought conditions many piedmont areas have been experiencing are about to be gone. Within the next 7 to 8 days 2 to 5 inches of rain looks likely for much of the SE

qpf_acc.conus (1).png

Of course, and no cold in sight. This area is absolutely maddening for a winter weather lover!!! I'm still hopeful we can work something out last week of Feb, first week of Mar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×