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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

To be fair, everyone has been post 2/7. So we will see if after a week from now how things shake out. This 1st week stuff is just and added bonus, most of the thoughts Ive read from JB,Robert and webber etc where never touting the 1st week of Feb. 

Great post and I agree. Everyone has touted second half.

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So the 17th now eh?  Getting to where climo beats cold for my neck of the woods.  Sure there's 'March 1st 1983' or whatever but storms beyond about Feb 20th are usually no bueno

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7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

So the 17th now eh?  Getting to where climo beats cold for my neck of the woods.  Sure there's 'March 1st 1983' or whatever but storms beyond about Feb 20th are usually no bueno

Judah Cohen and his SSW talk is equivalent to JB saying it's going to be cold in the NE

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

To be fair, everyone has been post 2/7. So we will see if after a week from now how things shake out. This 1st week stuff is just and added bonus, most of the thoughts Ive read from JB,Robert and webber etc where never touting the 1st week of Feb. 

I haven't gone back and looked (and I'm not going to :) ), but IIRC, this current period (the first week or so of Feb) looked mostly quite warm a couple of weeks ago in the models.

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-Solar wind and QBO still tracking similar to 2009-10 levels(387 km/s for this month,EEP 5-7)Solar is still trending lower every month.

-MJO tracking almost identical to 09-10.The 09-10 year had the stall/loop de loop TWICE that winter in phase 7,once in early DEC 09 before producing,another in Mid January too.To add more evidence Dec 17 also had the stall/loop de loop early in the month,before producing.Don't be surprised if we get another here soon but the question for me is if it's 5 days 10 days?In the end the MJO eventually gets through so we'll see.

-Strat is also coming in very identical to 09-10 now.High levels of solar wind and EEP levels strengthen the polar vortex so it's not surprising the PV is getting weakened and split with these very low levels now.

Been saving this for 8 or 9 years,here's FEB 4th 2010 forecast at 10mb.I'm seeing plenty of these lately so carry on.

 

post-4523-12652870449988.gif

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17 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

This is what we want to see. Webber says jma is more reliable forecasting the MJO entering phase 8  compared to euro and gfs. MJO is webber wheelhouse so it's encouraging to see jma advertising the goods.

 

afb5faebcea7f6c2dd77017f73e70ba3.webp

Somebody saying the JMA is good at anything, is like saying the DGEX was good at snow maps!

Just a little jaded since the SSW is usually saved for last hope desperation, and have been talked about the last few years and not really helped us with cold and snow! Maybe this is the one!?

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Rejoice to the weakening & departure of the #PolarVortex. EPS updated weekly forecasts (Available: http://weathermodels.com ) show warmth and ridging by the middle of February. Just need to survive these next 2-weeks. 

DU_FU-6UMAEqE0W.jpg
 
DU_FU-4UQAEqJhT.jpg

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32 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Rejoice to the weakening & departure of the #PolarVortex. EPS updated weekly forecasts (Available: http://weathermodels.com ) show warmth and ridging by the middle of February. Just need to survive these next 2-weeks. 

DU_FU-6UMAEqE0W.jpg
 
DU_FU-4UQAEqJhT.jpg

Good thing the weeklies suck! Don't know how many times the past few winters they kept showing colder in the end of the runs, only to never materialize ! So if that trend continues, these will be wrong!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Good thing the weeklies suck! Don't know how many times the past few winters they kept showing colder in the end of the runs, only to never materialize ! So if that trend continues, these will be wrong!

Plus, it'll be easy to survive the next two weeks, since they will be warm after this weekend. All the cold is coming mid month or later, remember!?

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Good thing the weeklies suck! Don't know how many times the past few winters they kept showing colder in the end of the runs, only to never materialize ! So if that trend continues, these will be wrong!

True!! Ryan seems like he believes them? 

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Plus, it'll be easy to survive the next two weeks, since they will be warm after this weekend. All the cold is coming mid month or later, remember!?

Dude, I had already forgot about that!! Game on!!!!!!  I was going to put away my shovel and Ice melt tomorrow. I don't care what Medium or LR models show, It will snow again before summer!!! Models can't even get short range correct, it would be an accident if they get LR CLOSE TO RIGHT........... IMO 

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1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Dude, I had already forgot about that!! Game on!!!!!!  I was going to put away my shovel and Ice melt tomorrow. I don't care what Medium or LR models show, It will snow again before summer!!! Models can't even get short range correct, it would be an accident if they get LR CLOSE TO RIGHT........... IMO 

I couldn't agree more 

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The Euro weeklies are pretty much a complete flip from the previous run...they are warm from mid Feb to mid Mar.  All of the ensembles have a warmer look now in week 2, so we've got some work to do to see a colder looking pattern.  To me, the -VP anomalies associated with the MJO are progressing as expected.  Plenty of time for things to change, but we're not currently seeing the -EPO/+PNA type pattern in the long range ensembles you would expect with the MJO progression.  The stratospheric PV that is getting displaced into Canada could be an issue, I don't know.  Earlier in the winter, we had a stratospheric high over NW Canada and AK that was coupled with the troposphere, which led to the arctic cold waves being sent down into the conus.  We don't have that same type of coupling in the near term forecasts.   

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19 minutes ago, griteater said:

The Euro weeklies are pretty much a complete flip from the previous run...they are warm from mid Feb to mid Mar.  All of the ensembles have a warmer look now in week 2, so we've got some work to do to see a colder looking pattern.  To me, the -VP anomalies associated with the MJO are progressing as expected.  Plenty of time for things to change, but we're not currently seeing the -EPO/+PNA type pattern in the long range ensembles you would expect with the MJO progression.  The stratospheric PV that is getting displaced into Canada could be an issue, I don't know.  Earlier in the winter, we had a stratospheric high over NW Canada and AK that was coupled with the troposphere, which led to the arctic cold waves being sent down into the conus.  We don't have that same type of coupling in the near term forecasts.   

Man it is amazing how fast Fab Feb went to Feb Flub.  I wonder what it was that "faked" all the models out, or were we just projecting our desires onto their usually variable output?

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7 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Man it is amazing how fast Fab Feb went to Feb Flub.  I wonder what it was that "faked" all the models out, or were we just projecting our desires onto their usually variable output?

well if the models flipped that fast one way they can very well flip back to the side we're looking for.  I still think we see a couple of good chances for more snow maybe even a big snow event thrown in there.

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9 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Plus, it'll be easy to survive the next two weeks, since they will be warm after this weekend. All the cold is coming mid month or later, remember!?

I will take whatever we get.  If we get more snow great if we don't that's ok we have made plenty on a year that most everybody said we wouldn't get much of anything because of la nina.  La Nina lol one of the best winters in a while.  Last la nina was good for us as well.

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Looks like a lot of uncertainty in the long range based on the language from GSP discussion.  As others have said, what looked like a period of below normal temps and chances for winter storms seems somewhat in jeopardy.  However, that doesn't mean the SE can't score a winter storm.  The famous President's Day storm of 79 was sandwiched between two periods of above average temps...

ome controversy over when the front will clear the area has
materialized with the 00Z model cycle...with the GFS carrying a
clean frontal passage and the ECMWF now lingering the back edge of
the precip across the area through 12Z Thursday. Anyhow, clearing
after 12Z Thursday is likely as another surface high is able to work
its way into the forecast area. Very glad the forecast doesn`t
extend past next Friday as the model disagreement even in just the
upper pattern is significant. Temperatures will be near average
Tuesday, well above average Wednesday ahead of the approaching
front, and near to just below average again on Thursday as the front
exits the area.

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Seeing some encouraging signs on models. Feel more optimistic than I have the past couple of days well get at least one more 7 to 10- 14 day window of opportunity to have a legit shot or 2 to rope one in.  This pattern is still fast and NS dominant so that's a handicap, but we've made it work for us a few times already this winter. 

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

See you guys next winter

test8.gif

Lol . Once you check out of the hotel that's it , no coming back. Have a safe and happy summer. 

We seriously ought to start a thread. Title it the "checkout thread". 

That way folks can put their money where their mouth is. Rule is once you declare winter is over then you post all you want in that thread but aren't allowed back in the mid to long term thread until after March 1 or 21st end of met or winter solistice.

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16 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Lol . Once you check out of the hotel that's it , no coming back. Have a safe and happy summer. 

We seriously ought to start a thread. Title it the "checkout thread". 

That way folks can put their money where their mouth is. Rule is once you declare winter is over then you post all you want in that thread but aren't allowed back in the mid to long term thread until after March 1 or 21st end of met or winter solistice.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/

on a positive note SOI is tanking which means cold coming east

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