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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It honestly blows my mind. The difference between here and even exit 23 is noticeable. I got 10 last year and I’m sitting at 7 so far this year. I can’t remember the official totals but I think I’m at least 10” ahead of KCLT.

Come on man, now you're just rubbing it in...:wacko::P.blows my mind too. Sitting at 4 inches near uncc. Closer you are to Iredell county line, the better you are...its just colder up there.

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I had high hopes for February, but now I am just hoping that the cold/dry - warm-up and rain will average to normal.  It would be nice to sneak an overall below-average winter (even if it's just a smidge below) when predictions were pretty dire going in.

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Somebody post the latest CMC , when it comes out! It's all we've got for Sunday! :(

lol, That thread died quickly!!! :raining:  Hang on it want be long....................... Just as soon as we can get the MJO in phase 8 the bottom drops out! ;)

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8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

lol, That thread died quickly!!! :raining:  Hang on it want be long....................... Just as soon as we can get the MJO in phase 8 the bottom drops out! ;)

As others have mentioned recently, some forecasts are showing it making a detour around 8 or maybe even reversing itself back to phase 6.  Hopefully that doesn't happen.

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11 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

lol, That thread died quickly!!! :raining:  Hang on it want be long....................... Just as soon as we can get the MJO in phase 8 the bottom drops out! ;)

Is JB still thinking the MJO is going into phase 8,1,2,3 for February?

He was showing cold maps and snow maps yesterday. 

 

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2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

As others have mentioned recently, some forecasts are showing it making a detour around 8 or maybe even reversing itself back to phase 6.  Hopefully that doesn't happen.

Yes I've seen that, Phase 7 not bad for February If we can time a storm just right!!!  I doubt it goes to phase 6, delayed but not denied..... Famous quote from JB lol

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1 minute ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Is JB still thinking the MJO is going into phase 8,1,2,3 for February?

He was showing cold maps and snow maps yesterday. 

 

Yes, He says MJO slow moving, tonight he said Feb 17 - March 7  Cold? IDK we'll see soon!!

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34 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It honestly blows my mind. The difference between here and even exit 23 is noticeable. I got 10 last year and I’m sitting at 7 so far this year. I can’t remember the official totals but I think I’m at least 10” ahead of KCLT.

I'm sure one day someone will figure it out but there is a bubble in the area where brick lives that always gets more snow than 2/3 miles down the road.

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1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Yes, He says MJO slow moving, tonight he said Feb 17 - March 7  Cold? IDK we'll see soon!!

A link to someone's master's thesis correlating MJO phase with CONUS temps.  If I understand correctly, it seems that if you want a significant Eastern US cold snap, you should root for the MJO to be inthe COD.  That surprises me.

 

https://www.albany.edu/honorscollege/files/findlay_thesis.docx

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Just now, cbmclean said:

A link to someone's master's thesis correlating MJO phase with CONUS temps.  If I understand correctly, it seems that if you want a significant Eastern US cold snap, you should root for the MJO to be inthe COD.  That surprises me.

 

https://www.albany.edu/honorscollege/files/findlay_thesis.docx

Interesting, That may be where it's headed? 

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18 minutes ago, Southern Track said:

It could be.  After being really amped it looks to die on the vine and skirt the cold phases along with the COD

I have been trying for a while to find good info about the effect of MJO on CONUS temps.  Found a good citation using my student access via the NCSU library (yay library fees)

Zhou, S., L’Heureux, M., Weaver, S., Kumar, A., (2011). A composite study of the MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States. Climate Dynamics, 38, 1459-1471

So this article shows why everyone on this thread likes phases 8 - 1- 2 so much.  Interestingly, it again shows that we tend to do better with low amplitude in those phases.

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I don’t know if this notion has any merit or not, but I always kind of root for the mjo to go into the cod from phase 8-1-2 rather than from the warm phases.  I don’t know if it matters once it’s in the cod, but I always assume that if it goes in there from a cold phase, the atmosphere will tend to remain sort of configured in that state longer.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

I don’t know if this notion has any merit or not, but I always kind of root for the mjo to go into the cod from phase 8-1-2 rather than from the warm phases.  I don’t know if it matters once it’s in the cod, but I always assume that if it goes in there from a cold phase, the atmosphere will tend to remain sort of configured in that state longer.

I tend to agree.  I guess the good situation of the amped oscillation is that it’s been rocketing through phases 4,5, and 6 so it can get to more favorable conditions hopefully by mid February.

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

6z GFS says apps rubber after apps rubber! No cold in sight. This Friday/Saturday cold shot, is coldest of the whole run ! :(

and it has been scarily consistent showing nada. 

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MJO in Phase 6 is currently at it's highest level in this phase since records were kept starting in 1979. Long Range does not look good for cold weather folks. I think if we don't see a drastic change on the models in the next five days, you can go ahead and stick a fork in this winter season for areas east of the Appalachians.

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6 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

MJO in Phase 6 is currently at it's highest level in this phase since records were kept starting in 1979. Long Range does not look good for cold weather folks. I think if we don't see a drastic change on the models in the next five days, you can go ahead and stick a fork in this winter season for areas east of the Appalachians.

Yeah, I think it’s premature to throw in the towel, and we can always get a rogue storm.  But if we move from a slightly cool pattern with no storms at the beginning of February to a warm pattern for the middle and end of February, I’ll probably call ballgame, at least for around here.  We would probably spend the rest of the month getting rid of the warmth (assuming that’s the way the pattern was trending), and then it’s into March.  Marches today are not like Marches of yesteryear when it comes to snow.

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15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, I think it’s premature to throw in the towel, and we can always get a rogue storm.  But if we move from a slightly cool pattern with no storms at the beginning of February to a warm pattern for the middle and end of February, I’ll probably call ballgame, at least for around here.  We would probably spend the rest of the month getting rid of the warmth (assuming that’s the way the pattern was trending), and then it’s into March.  Marches today are not like Marches of yesteryear when it comes to snow.

I don't throw in the towel till April 1st! March 1960 days hello and we are due!

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Indices would indicate that the mid part of February onward could be favorable. If so, we should see the LR models start showing colder solutions.   

PNA - Goes solidly positive in LR (Good)

AO - Goes solidly negative in LR (Good)

EPO - stays negative but goes to slight negative in LR (OK)

NAO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Indices would indicate that the mid part of February onward could be favorable. If so, we should see the LR models start showing colder solutions.   

PNA - Goes solidly positive in LR (Good)

AO - Goes solidly negative in LR (Good)

EPO - stays negative but goes to slight negative in LR (OK)

NAO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

I hope the middle of the month gets here soon, waiting is the hardest part. If that dam MJO would just keep moving! It may be overated, but it's journey and stalling in 7, isn't giving us much cold after this weekend shot!

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29 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Indices would indicate that the mid part of February onward could be favorable. If so, we should see the LR models start showing colder solutions.   

PNA - Goes solidly positive in LR (Good)

AO - Goes solidly negative in LR (Good)

EPO - stays negative but goes to slight negative in LR (OK)

NAO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

They looked good 10 days ago for a big cool down first week or two of February and that changed and now we are pushing it out to second half of feb....experience tells me that when we start pushing out the big cold pattern change it's bad sign.

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1 minute ago, shaggy said:

They looked good 10 days ago for a big cool down first week or two of February and that changed and now we are pushing it out to second half of feb....experience tells me that when we start pushing out the big cold pattern change it's bad sign.

Maybe. It had the cold look (and even was close to a -NAO) and the models followed suit (cold look).  But then they switched towards a warmer look (PNA and AO more neutral) and the models then went warm in the LR. So, maybe we again start seeing better model solutions. If the pattern actually does switch around mid month, it may change very quickly as long as we can keep cold temps locked to our NW.     

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I'm far from a "long range" forecaster but I enjoy looking at various indices and climate model solutions. I will say the CanSIPS and the CFS Weekly/Monthly runs from last night show a favorable turn to cold mid Feb and beyond. I also read there is a SSW event taking place or getting ready to. (I'll see it to believe it)

The indices referenced above also are trending in this direction. I still think a portion of the SE is in store for a winter storm or two before all is said and done. I also think it is USELESS to even analyze ANY global model's solution beyond 168 hrs (1 week)...this goes for warm or cold solutions.

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37 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Once again, punt one to two weeks longer. That seems to never change.

To be fair, everyone has been post 2/7. So we will see if after a week from now how things shake out. This 1st week stuff is just and added bonus, most of the thoughts Ive read from JB,Robert and webber etc where never touting the 1st week of Feb. 

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