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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

And no storms or very cold air on 6z GFS long range!? Here we are a day away from Fab Feb start, and it ain't looking too Fab, anytime soon

That will change soon enough man. Just remember that the all mighty Euro and the crappy GFS do NOT handle the Carolinas well with CAD in medium range and when you have HP's dropping down and rotating in and out like this pattern suggests, then the LR will flip-flop, like you see now. Go with Climo and the other methods for our areas. We will be fine. I love the setup we are entering into. Like Robert of WXSouth has stated all along. 

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Just, a heads up.  It isn't a good idea to encourage another member to ignore a moderator. In the event of a confrontation, you could end up as collateral damage.

The fact that some of you are discouraging people from posting reasonable maps that are in long term (hence the name of this thread) is just disrespectful....they are more informative than many posts that read like "brick you gonna get some up your way"....not pointing anyone out just an example!


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35 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Hard to be overly excited about anything more than a brief period of wintry mix this weekend.  There is no strong high in the right position, and the cold air source isn't as cold as I'd like to see.  So far, I'm not impressed with a really cold and stormy pattern setting up anytime soon either.  Looks cooler than normal mostly and certainly no torch.  So that's good.  Plus, there seem to be multiple precip events.  So that's good.  But it looks like moderate/precip/cold/moderate/precip/cold to me.  Perfect timing will be very key over the next 15 days.  Hopefully, the last half of the month and into March will provide a more solid period of sustained cold.  That seems to be and have been the consensus.  We'll see, I guess.

Here's the last run of the CFS for Feb.  Not bad:

CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20180131.201802.thumb.gif.412e96af9cf3771c7e0ecd0c5f5d084f.gif

That's a great look. Those of us east of the mountains are almost solely dependant on a damming HP and with cold aplenty to our north it won't take much. Really need to develop some blocking here in the next 2-3 weeks. These blue anomaly maps won't do us much good once average temps begin to rise

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27 minutes ago, Justincobbco said:


The fact that some of you are discouraging people from posting reasonable maps that are in long term (hence the name of this thread) is just disrespectful....they are more informative than many posts that read like "brick you gonna get some up your way"....not pointing anyone out just an example!


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300h clown maps are substantial impediment to quality discussion. A banterish post is a one off thing that is easily skipped. Many times one 2 week clown map can spawn pages of bad posts that derail the entire thread. You may not understand what I'm saying or disagree and that's fine but I don't think the site is likely to reconsider.

Don't really have much to add about the event this weekend. Just doesn't look to be enough cold outside of the mountains.

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14 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

That's a great look. Those of us east of the mountains are almost solely dependant on a damming HP and with cold aplenty to our north it won't take much. Really need to develop some blocking here in the next 2-3 weeks. These blue anomaly maps won't do us much good once average temps begin to rise

Yeah, it's not a bad look.  It's a probability map, btw, but your point is well-taken.  Anomalies of -3 aren't really cold enough in early March.

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12 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

300h clown maps are substantial impediment to quality discussion. A banterish post is a one off thing that is easily skipped. Many times one 2 week clown map can spawn pages of bad posts that derail the entire thread. You may not understand what I'm saying or disagree and that's fine but I don't think the site is likely to reconsider.

Don't really have much to add about the event this weekend. Just doesn't look to be enough cold outside of the mountains.

Great post and really disappointing you have to explain it yet again especially to those that should get it.

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Why is the GEM colder than the GFS for the Sun/Mon system? Is it because the GFS is more amped?

GGEM has a HP system to the north of the system, whereas the GFS does not.

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GFS between hrs 99-105 has a nasty little wedge showing up from my neck of the woods down the spine of western NC. Good run for Frosty and people to the south of me during this timeframe. I am assuming heavy sleet or freezing rain followed by a flip to rain if GFS is correct. I will say though with the GGEM showing the HP to the north, the GFS may be showing its hand and signifying its not great with cold air setups. Something to definitely keep an eye on the next couple of days.

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Well the ICON/GEM give MBY 2-4", GFS maybe a coating, Mostly Rain... now will see what EURO has.

Got a feeling still this will be more a NC mountains storm and up my way on up to Winchester and points north. Euro has sucked pond water this winter imo.

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Got a feeling still this will be more a NC mountains storm and up my way on up to Winchester and points north. Euro has sucked pond water this winter imo.

I do agree that this will be a Mountain Special... Curious to see what the Euro shows even though its been horrible lately... (Dont tell DT I said that) 

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34 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Great post and really disappointing you have to explain it yet again especially to those that should get it.

Well I'm going to stick my cold nose in here and just disagree with this to a CERTAIN extent.  The 300+hr clown maps are fine in my view. 

Posters just need to qualify them with the proper language.  Not "Boom!" for example.  I've seen posters drop maps in on the LR discussion with set-up TEXT to the tune of "For what this is worth here's the 384.  Let's see how the next runs look...(etc.) ".

As long as people read there shouldn't have to be 2 pages of discussion on it.

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This just isn't the ideal setup (as currently modeled). The best model (..for me) is the CMC. It has RDU under freezing rain for a good period; which would meet winter storm criteria. But surface temps even on the CMC hover at or even a little above freezing for the event. So areas (outside mountains) that get snow will see temps at the 33/34 level and the ice folks will see 31/32. Both not ideal for accumulations.

 Looks good, but...

aaaa.jpg

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Fab Feb quickly turning into February Flameout.  Give it a couple more days and the MJO is going to be shown going back into Phase 6.

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24 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Fab Feb quickly turning into February Flameout.  Give it a couple more days and the MJO is going to be shown going back into Phase 6.

Yea the waiter(MJO) who's supose to deliver the main course dish is making moves sugesting he may be turning around and heading back to the kitchen before reaching our table and serving up the goods. Referncing  mjo going into cod in phase 7 or worse back toward 6 like you alluded to. Lets all hope thats not the case and just some noise/false move.

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4 hours ago, Justincobbco said:


The fact that some of you are discouraging people from posting reasonable maps that are in long term (hence the name of this thread) is just disrespectful....they are more informative than many posts that read like "brick you gonna get some up your way"....not pointing anyone out just an example!


.

I had hoped I wouldn't have to address this again but OK.  I guess I have a different definition of disrespectful. For me, one such definition would be someone who has a total of 13 posts deciding he knows better than moderators and other posters with thousands of posts how this forum should be run. In fact, just typing that has made me a bit angry so I will offer you some advice as well. 

1.Turn out all the lights in your room.

2. Close your eyes nice and tight.

3. What you now see is everything of which you are in charge.

4. Decide to live with that or move on.  Your choice.

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49 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yea the waiter(MJO) who's supose to deliver the main course dish is making moves sugesting he may be turning around and heading back to the kitchen before reaching our table and serving up the goods. Referncing  mjo going into cod in phase 7 or worse back toward 6 like you alluded to. Lets all hope thats not the case and just some noise/false move.

Just looking at the ensembles, it looks like that's what's going on.  The models are not showing what you'd typically see in a phase 8 MJO where there's a clear trough in the east.  Ridging abounds in the south.  Even out to mid-month.  Starting to get worried.  Just have to hope it gets into phase 8, even in a low amplitude.  

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2 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

Just looking at the ensembles, it looks like that's what's going on.  The models are not showing what you'd typically see in a phase 8 MJO where there's a clear trough in the east.  Ridging abounds in the south.  Even out to mid-month.  Starting to get worried.  Just have to hope it gets into phase 8, even in a low amplitude.  

A low amplitude is what you might see.  The Euro ensemble could be showing that very thing.

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Here's the CFS:

CFSO_phase_small.gif

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Congratulations Charlotte on recording your first below normal average monthly temperature since January 2016.  Charlotte's previous below normal average monthly temperature prior to January 2016 occurred in February 2015.  What a streak!  Was January an anomaly or will February follow suit?

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I had hoped I wouldn't have to address this again but OK.  I guess I have a different definition of disrespectful. For me, one such definition would be someone who has a total of 13 posts deciding he knows better than moderators and other posters with thousands of posts how this forum should be run. In fact, just typing that has made me a bit angry so I will offer you some advice as well. 
1.Turn out all the lights in your room.
2. Close your eyes nice and tight.
3. What you now see is everything of which you are in charge.
4. Decide to live with that or move on.  Your choice.

Somebody PLEASE FLAG THIS AS BANTER! Thank you There's no need for your unimportant response. Stick to weather and don't respond to me again. Thanks!


.

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26 minutes ago, Justincobbco said:


Somebody PLEASE FLAG THIS AS BANTER! Thank you emoji16.png There's no need for your unimportant response. Stick to weather and don't respond to me again. Thanks!


.

Wow..... I see the ban-hammer coming for you.

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59 minutes ago, Eric said:

Congratulations Charlotte on recording your first below normal average monthly temperature since January 2016.  Charlotte's previous below normal average monthly temperature prior to January 2016 occurred in February 2015.  What a streak!  Was January an anomaly or will February follow suit?

It’s about time. What’s your snow total for the yr? 

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48 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It’s about time. What’s your snow total for the yr? 

Around three inches.  You and @griteater have done real well the past two winters.  My brother attended Davidson College back in the 70's and he would send me postcards detailing the amounts of snow he got while we had nothing but rain in Monroe.  It's amazing how the rain/snow line sets up in Northern Mecklenburg County.  Strangely, Monroe has had far more snow than KCLT over the past twenty years.

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1 hour ago, Justincobbco said:


Somebody PLEASE FLAG THIS AS BANTER! Thank you emoji16.png There's no need for your unimportant response. Stick to weather and don't respond to me again. Thanks!


.

I believe you were the one who injected themselves into a conversation. In any case, it will not be a problem going forward.

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Somebody PLEASE FLAG THIS AS BANTER! Thank you There's no need for your unimportant response. Stick to weather and don't respond to me again. Thanks!


.
Dude. Not smart.
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23 minutes ago, Eric said:

Around three inches.  You and @griteater have done real well the past two winters.  My brother attended Davidson College back in the 70's and he would send me postcards detailing the amounts of snow he got while we had nothing but rain in Monroe.  It's amazing how the rain/snow line sets up in Northern Mecklenburg County.  Strangely, Monroe has had far more snow than KCLT over the past twenty years.

It honestly blows my mind. The difference between here and even exit 23 is noticeable. I got 10 last year and I’m sitting at 7 so far this year. I can’t remember the official totals but I think I’m at least 10” ahead of KCLT.

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