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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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6 hours ago, Snow haven said:

You keep posting that stuff here, that's what the LONG TERM DISCUSSION board is for!

 

 

Just, a heads up.  It isn't a good idea to encourage another member to ignore a moderator. In the event of a confrontation, you could end up as collateral damage.

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3 hours ago, Disco-lemonade said:

for nc, need to see the gfs continue to loose the gl influence

the more high pressure we can get up there the better

gfs_mslpa_us_fh96_trend.gif

The GFS is trending in the right direction. Track of the low is further south on this run. That's due to the pressures being higher in the great lakes as shown above. If this trend continues, it will be a big hit for a lot of folks.

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6z GFS is close with a couple of events during the next 7 days. Verbatim, it does show some wintery precip for the mountains and foothills, but nothing father east. It's close enough that we need to keep an eye on (hopefully good) trends the next couple of days. 

As of right now it's looking more favorable for the MA folks (...and again maybe our mountains).   

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The upcoming pattern for the next 7 days looks pretty awful if you ask me. Trough is too far west not enough high pressure to our NE for a CAD storm with an active storm track= lots of cold rain for the next 7 days.. Mountains could do well yes but foothills and Piedmont areas will be lucky to get much out of this pattern. 

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6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Although the Canadian is colder,  it had done well this Winter, but kinda hard to Trust it when GFS AND EURO dont 

Even the CMC has surface temps above freezing. At best there'll be sloppy 2" amounts. We need the initial cold air (single digit dew points) on Saturday to hang in longer. It could, we need some type of in-situ CAD to help us out.   

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16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah with the marginal cold and the low position, the higher elevations can make this work. Kind of like spring storms...

I think anyone in and around WNC will do fine with this storm Sunday and Monday if the low will stay far enough south.

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21 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I don't remember the Canadian doing well at all this winter.  

I agree I don't see much going on the next 2 weeks, not cold enough IMO.  Keeping my eye on mid month and on.  

It nailed the last two major events. It was stellar the last storm. The German and Canadian had the storm consistently, from 5 days out.

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Last nights discussion from RAH:

Saturday Night through Tuesday: A complex weather pattern begins to
take shape late Saturday, as the controlling area of high pressure
is forced off the Mid Atlantic Coastline by a digging upper-level
trough. Closer to the surface, a series of short waves will round
the base of the trough helping to initiate the initial stages of
cyclogenesis across the Gulf Coast, progressing a strengthening
winter storm north and east to off of the North Carolina Coastline
by early Monday morning. Both the GFS/ECMWF continue to come into
better agreement with the overall timing, but still differ in
overall impacts across our region. In general, expect precipitation
to push north and east into the area mainly after sunrise on Sunday
and continue for roughly 24 hours into early Monday morning. Some
concern that the precipitation may start as a wintry mix at the
onset, but with arrival time being pushed back by a few hours with
the latest model trends, this threat seems to be becoming less
likely. Have kept the possibility of a mix of rain/snow mainly west
of US-1 before 10am on Sunday, before transitioning the
precipitation type back to all rain through Sunday Night. Another
transition back to light snowfall will be possible early Monday
morning as the low lifts north and east, with high pressure soon to
fill in Monday evening into Tuesday. Plenty of uncertainty with this
portion of the forecast, so be sure to check back frequently as we
monitor the changing guidance and weather trends.

 

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10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It nailed the last two major events. It was stellar the last storm. The German and Canadian had the storm consistently, from 5 days out.

Ok, thanks just didn't remember that.  I just remember all the global models going back and forth with the last storm and none but the meso-scale models like the NAM really showed the real threat.  Will keep an eye on it to see how it does this month....

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Hard to be overly excited about anything more than a brief period of wintry mix this weekend.  There is no strong high in the right position, and the cold air source isn't as cold as I'd like to see.  So far, I'm not impressed with a really cold and stormy pattern setting up anytime soon either.  Looks cooler than normal mostly and certainly no torch.  So that's good.  Plus, there seem to be multiple precip events.  So that's good.  But it looks like moderate/precip/cold/moderate/precip/cold to me.  Perfect timing will be very key over the next 15 days.  Hopefully, the last half of the month and into March will provide a more solid period of sustained cold.  That seems to be and have been the consensus.  We'll see, I guess.

Here's the last run of the CFS for Feb.  Not bad:

CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20180131.201802.thumb.gif.412e96af9cf3771c7e0ecd0c5f5d084f.gif

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