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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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40 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Boom goes the dynamite image.thumb.png.094093078b4d69c3feb377ecc88fa27a.png

Please stop posting 300+ hour op maps in the disco thread, these are nothing more than banter.

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37 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Please stop posting 300+ hour op maps in the disco thread, these are nothing more than banter.

Ok. But just to be clear at what hour is a map considered discussion and when is it considered banter. 240'ish cutoff?

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Good discussion from RAH:

Friday night through Monday: Surface high pressure will build into
and through the area Friday night, shifting offshore by late
Saturday and Saturday night. As a result, Friday night through
Saturday is expected to be dry with below normal temperatures.
Aloft, NW flow Friday night will shift to westerly on Saturday then
more southwesterly Saturday night as an upper level trough sets up
over the Midwest. A surface low develops over the Gulf Coast Sunday
morning as the Canadian high pressure drives south through the
Midwest. The low is expected to shift eastward through the FL
panhandle, then northeast along the Southeast US coast Sunday and
Sunday night. Over Central NC, a lingering ridge may inhibit some of
the warm advection at the surface early on and with the current
forecast track of the low, Central NC will be on the northern edge
as it passes to the south and east. There is a lot of uncertainty,
as the temperature, timing of the system and when/if the associated
cold front moves into/through the area, will play a huge role in if,
where and how much snow Central NC receives. Will continue to
mention the chance for rain or snow Saturday night and Sunday night,
while the daytime temperatures will likely be warm enough for a
transition to all rain. Will continue to keep a close eye on this
system in the coming days, but for right now its too early to
speculate about impacts with this system given the high degree of
uncertainty.
 

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

48 hour, tops! :(

It really matters on what your discussing. If its pattern related, you could go all the way out to day 16. For storms you can show something at day 10 but really discuss it in the content that a storm is possible. Don't focus on the fact that the cut off line runs through Wake County. At day 7 and under, we can start posting more about the possible storm details. Then at day 5/4 and under you can say Boom!   **at least that's what I do...

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Here's a link to a non-weather model method that also points to some cold periods in Feb (I'm sure some have seen this method before, the LRC) - http://weather2020.com/2018/01/30/weather-extremes-a-super-bowl-sunday-arctic-air-watch/

Basically, the LRC method states that each fall-winter pattern has a repeating cycle, and this year's cycle has been observed to repeat every 44-51 days.

Just for Mack, the origin of the method goes back to the Jan '88 storm, lol - "Oklahoma City typically averages 8" of snow each winter.  In December of 1987 and again in January of 1988, however, there were snowstorms that each saw 12" of snow.  Gary thought that the second storm was so similar to the first that they must be related.  This realization was the inception of the Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC."

So, using this method, the pattern that we experienced in the Dec 27 - Jan 17 period is 'destined' to repeat in a somewhat similar fashion from Feb 12 - Mar 5 (i.e. again, via a 47 day repeating cycle for this winter).  Here were the 500mb pattern and temperature departures during that timeframe.

WVfDhOe.png

Bjq3Eg9.png

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

48 hour, tops! :(

49 minutes ago, Lettucesnow said:

:clap:Thank you soooo much!!! They are so meaningless!

Then the thread needs to be renamed to SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, because you are posting in the wrong thread if you are wanting within 48 hours of data

 

 

1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

Ok. But just to be clear at what hour is a map considered discussion and when is it considered banter. 240'ish cutoff?

You keep posting that stuff here, that's what the LONG TERM DISCUSSION board is for!

 

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29 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Honestly, the long rang individual storm maps have got ridiculous. Back in the day on WWBB, you would've been laughed at until you left. @Wow, @Marion_NC_WX and @HKY_WX can confirm. Geneal pattern discussion is fine but there's a line.

I learned that the hard way about 10 years ago when DT himself chastised me for posting a long rang pattern change on a 300hr+ map from the GFS. I never did that again, without some reasoning as to why I believed a certain pattern would verify. This is a long range discussion thread. However; you should provide some insight as to why it may or may not happen as shown.

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4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I learned that the hard way about 10 years ago when DT himself chastised me for posting a long rang pattern change on a 300hr+ map from the GFS. I never did that again, without some reasoning as to why I believed a certain pattern would verify. This is a long range discussion thread. However; you should provide some insight as to why it may or may not happen as shown.

It is what separates AMWX from the rest of the C4ap out there. These posts would be laughed out of the MA forum.

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18 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I learned that the hard way about 10 years ago when DT himself chastised me for posting a long rang pattern change on a 300hr+ map from the GFS. I never did that again, without some reasoning as to why I believed a certain pattern would verify. This is a long range discussion thread. However; you should provide some insight as to why it may or may not happen as shown.

I know people probably think some of us are coming off like jerks but the way we’ve done things has worked for nearly 20 years now. 

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30 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

900E15E9-0CC1-4861-AFFC-AC0F70879762.jpeg

This one may have legs. It's coming in at the right time. There is cold air already established.  With the low passing to our south, it will lock in the residual CAD. Most of the forecasts, have us in the 40's by afternoon, but if the precip comes in early in the morning and continues throughout the day, there may be more frozen/freezing precip than what the models show currently. Also, the temps will struggle to rise much at all. No way we see mid 40's with that set-up.

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WxSouth seems pretty bullish on pattern and snow/ice chances!!! He just posted this on Facebook!


The Thursday into Friday system will be a fast mover, but rain goes to a few hours of snow in eastern Kentucky, eastern TN and the mountains of VA, NC and most of West Virginia, maybe brief flakes east of the mountains Friday. Most accumulations in the mountains. Then that front stalls on the Gulf Coast and here comes a much more potent, interesting system for the Tennessee Valley, the Appalachians , part of NC, SC and VA as well with just barely cold enough air in place as moisture begins breaking out from west to east Saturday evening....significant snowstorm quite possible in or near the Apps region of TN, NC, VA, WV. Its too early to know the exact rain, snow and mixed precip regions just yet though First guess is at my paid site. Thanks to all the new members for your support.
Beyond this, "spokes" of cold air drop into the bowl shaped trough and systems will still be coming in across the western ridge and falling into the mean trough position. Active and changeable are the key words, but our "thaw" is likely over, such as it was. Looks like December through February will end up being below normal temp wise, pretty much a certainty now for most of us in the Southeast and MidAtlantic. Some signals point to extreme cold returning very late month. It may get extremely wild to have such anomalous cold air available with the storm track at it's most active of the entire Winter. If you haven't seen any snow yet, it's not anywhere near over yet.


.

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Sounds like west of 77 and north of 40 in NC stand a good chance in February but tough to get something east of there, especially in the next 10 days.

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6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Sounds like west of 77 and north of 40 in NC stand a good chance in February but tough to get something east of there, especially in the next 10 days.

For once this winter, I actually like my chances. It’s been brutal up this way. I actually feel pretty hung-ho about sun mon timeframe. I really like how the Icon has been performing this year. 

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