Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: the last one really seemed to pop out of nowhere, maybe 5 day lead time? The early December hit for GA seemed quick too. I think in a week or so, there's going to be a lot of tracking going on. One of the reasons that I ALWAYS want to see cold air in place first. Some people like precip and then worry about the cold. Not me. Ever. Precip can pop at the last second. Cold air does not usually pop up at the last second. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: One of the reasons that I ALWAYS want to see cold air in place first. Some people like precip and then worry about the cold. Not me. Ever. Precip can pop at the last second. Cold air does not usually pop up at the last second. This, not going to get focused on anything till I see some cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: One of the reasons that I ALWAYS want to see cold air in place first. Some people like precip and then worry about the cold. Not me. Ever. Precip can pop at the last second. Cold air does not usually pop up at the last second. I agree. Even in a seemingly cold and dry pattern you never know what could pop. Our January storm was seemingly at the end of a cold and dry northern stream dominant pattern, and somehow someway a clipper turned into a neutral tilt trough that scored for us. We've got to wait a bit to get back into that pattern IMO where anything that pops will be snow. When it opens up into the SE though, this time there seems to be more activity in the STJ with more energy coming into the CONUS in the baja and California. If that happens I think we'll close the month very happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 January type of cold come mid-February just ain't happening; timing is everything (of course that could be said about every storm). Still looks like there will be plenty of cold shots coming in February so good chance for another storm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 12 z GFS = dumpster fire fore Sunday/Monday event snow/mix briefly, to all rain and the system behind it is rain! So much for the early start to pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Sunday morning has my attention now. That's a pretty fresh dry/cold airmass that moves overhead on Saturday. GFS is most likely overdoing surface warm up Sunday morning. Also, mid-levels are by no means torching. Plenty cold enough for sleet in CAD area's and maybe snow in Northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 ^^Yeah, the GFS was not good verbatim, but all the players are still on the field. We do have initial cold, a storm traversing to the SE, and in coming cold (..but too late as currently modeled). So, we still need to keep an eye on this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Looking at the first 10 days on the GFS, and it's actually a good pattern to see a winter storm. We just need to get the right storm setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Plenty more plowing will be done. Even got to put a little salt out this morning. Winter is far from over as February looks good from most all forecasters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said: Plenty more plowing will be done. Even got to put a little salt out this morning. Winter is far from over as February looks good from most all forecasters Indeed it does. Solid half inch up here near the airport this morning. Ground still white in the shade. January turned out to be a great month. Looking highly likely RDU may go wall to wall cold this winter. Below Normal Nov,Dec,Jan. February looks like it may end up greatest departure BN. Well see. Also alot of us,minus SC interior folks are above normal anual snowfall. I'll be shocked by Feb 28 if we haven't had not 1 but atleast 2 good winter storms here in the Triad over the course of Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Indeed it does. Solid half inch up here near the airport this morning. Ground still white in the shade. January turned out to be a great month. Looking highly likely RDU may go wall to wall cold this winter. Below Normal Nov,Dec,Jan. February looks like it may end up greatest departure BN. Well see. Also alot of us,minus SC interior folks are above normal anual snowfall. I'll be shocked by Feb 28 if we haven't had not 1 but atleast 2 good winter storms here in the Triad over the course of Feb. and here's the thing: this was predicted to be a bad season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said: Plenty more plowing will be done. Even got to put a little salt out this morning. Winter is far from over as February looks good from most all forecasters Yeah, you aint done working for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: For what it's worth, it looks like the ICON has a big, wet snowstorm next Sunday. Oops, sorry, make that the norwegian. It's one of those that has euro grids though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I'll take this all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Canadian has what looks to be a significant winter storm on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Looking at the canadian, I'd say best chances for warning criteria snow would be in the foothills and across Tennessee but it isnt far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Looking at the canadian, I'd say best chances for warning criteria snow would be in the foothills and across Tennessee but it isnt far off. Canadian has been on those for like the past 4 cycles now. As Ward said back in Dec , when you have a model locked in run after run you need to pay attn. He was referncing Navgem back then and it turned out to be correct beleive it or not. And great point about pre season kick in the gut forecast for this winter. Thats what makes it all the more enjoyable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Looking at the canadian, I'd say best chances for warning criteria snow would be in the foothills and across Tennessee but it isnt far off. Looks like ice for me. Glad the previous storm did some major pruning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 How about Triad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Well, when the CMC is your only hope...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Looks like ice for me. Glad the previous storm did some major pruning. SN to IP to ZR is my guess, just like most of 'em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Unless temps trend better, that's a cold rain , for Cold Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 For us out west, it's a timing thing. Like Burell touched on, the cold Saturday has been trending colder and the sooner precip gets to us , 4-7 am, could make it a little interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: For us out west, it's a timing thing. Like Burell touched on, the cold Saturday has been trending colder and the sooner precip gets to us , 4-7 am, could make it a little interesting The Sunday event could stay snow and sleet for a lot of folks if Saturday keeps trending colder. Let's hope if it occurs it doesn't have a chance to change to rain. Maybe this will be a create some cold air of it's own storm also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Unless temps trend better, that's a cold rain , for Cold Rain Wedges are underdone!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Boom goes the dynamite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Wedges are underdone!! #WISHCASTING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Euro was pretty close but no dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 If only that was 120 hours out. We all know the NW trend would commence and it would be another "Mainly north of I85" deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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