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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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30 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

What's considered a more solid number of members to be a high confidence in the forecast?   Thinking 32-40??

Yeah, my ballpark is >35, but to see the number keep jumping up is a good sign, especially with it already up to 21 and the CFS hinting at it as well

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8 hours ago, Poimen said:

Santa is bearing good gifts this year...even if they come after Christmas: 

 

It looks like most of it is over Europe am I reading that right ? I hope I am wrong lol 

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28 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

PV split so it will go both ways (Europe and the US)

This is a wrong assumption.  We have had several PV splits that stay on the other side of the globe. This is always a worry when dealing with the PV.

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2 hours ago, mclean02 said:

It looks like most of it is over Europe am I reading that right ? I hope I am wrong lol 

East based US which is what we want.  Other indicators are starting to point to this as well I understand

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Improving look on the ensembles as we go into early January.  Could be rushing it a bit, but the eastern trough is developing, and the building Scandinavian Ridge is in a precursor position to retrograde west into Greenland here on the GEFS (EPS has some similar ideas).  I suspect this evening's Euro Weeklies will be good again.

awwelDB.gif

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Improving look on the ensembles as we go into early January.  Could be rushing it a bit, but the eastern trough is developing, and the building Scandinavian Ridge is in a precursor position to retrograde west into Greenland here on the GEFS (EPS has some similar ideas).  I suspect this evening's Euro Weeklies will be good again.

awwelDB.gif

Yes sir.  I noticed that for the first time in days, all four GFS overnight runs began to look a bit better at the end.  I'm guessing they are rushing it, like you said, but it's going to be nice to see some good pattern consistency start to show up at the end and work its way in.

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36 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yes sir.  I noticed that for the first time in days, all four GFS overnight runs began to look a bit better at the end.  I'm guessing they are rushing it, like you said, but it's going to be nice to see some good pattern consistency start to show up at the end and work its way in.

It be nice if we could get some storms in the coldest part of winter! If only January!? - CR

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46 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah Met, each week looked good on those maps, but especially weeks 5-6 

Absolutely Grit! It was about the best run of the season probably.  I'm still very hesitant on biting on this pattern change currently.  Let's get into the first of January and see how the models look then.

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59 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Absolutely Grit! It was about the best run of the season probably.  I'm still very hesitant on biting on this pattern change currently.  Let's get into the first of January and see how the models look then.

I suspect we'll know before then.  Closer to NYE

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