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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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So we're within 10 days of Christmas. Most models are indicating cool/cold temps. The FV3-GFS has highs in the 40s with lows ~freezing for both Christmas Eve and Day. It has support from the Canadian (which is colder) and the European.  It doesn't have support from the (older) GFS; which would have Christmas with upper 50s to mid 60s for highs. 

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So we're within 10 days of Christmas. Most models are indicating cool/cold temps. The FV3-GFS has highs in the 40s with lows ~freezing for both Christmas Eve and Day. It has support from the Canadian (which is colder) and the European.  It doesn't have support from the (older) GFS; which would have Christmas with upper 50s to mid 60s for highs. 

Sounds like the discussion going on the exact same time last year!? Hopefully the hammer of cold drops in on us like last year!!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Sounds like the discussion going on the exact same time last year!? Hopefully the hammer of cold drops in on us like last year!!

I don't see any huge arctic push of air in the LR (from models). The pattern setup isn't right. We need to get some blocking; and specifically we need to get the PNA more positive. On the Fv3 it would drop what cold air is in NA out west and not towards us. Even when we get cold air it's quick shots that come and go. 

But when we do get into that "favorable" pattern, we could score big time (...for more of the board); because of the parade of storms we keep getting.  

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How come every single time we have this magical unicorn, aka-SSW event, always sends the arctic cold to Europe first?! Then we may just get sloppy seconds, stale cold!? Guess it doesn’t matter what miracles we pull out, how great the winter was “?suppose” to be, we still suck at snow! On to the miraculous, backloaded Fab Feb

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Checking in after the weekend, long range still looks pretty cruddy to me.  As long as the long range doesn't look like this January 1 I'm ok.  However the one thing that may be happening below is the European / Scandinavian ridge may be starting to poke up to the pole and create the -AO/-NAO like back in November.  We'll see. Anyway, not giving the strat stuff any kind of validity.  It's the unattainable unicorn.  My hope is the MJO and Nino Climo getting back on track during nino climo time mid January.  

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

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On 12/11/2018 at 2:26 PM, griteater said:

The tropical forcing is now centered in the western Indian Ocean.  If we keep with the current cadence, it should reach the western hemisphere by early January (Phase 8), which, if timed with a weakening stratospheric polar vortex, would give valid reasons to be optimistic for a wintry January.

For the rest of December, I think getting a winter storm is going to require more luck than normal.

I remain bullish on a wintry January.  Here's the latest VP MJO chart showing what should be a return to El Nino-like phases 7-8-1-2 for January.  And there's no doubt that the stratospheric PV will be weakening to close out December.  The 2nd chart shows an official SSW on each of the last 4 runs of the GEFS Mean (zonal winds below 0) - other models have the SSW or show a strong weakening.  If we go for the jugular with the forecast, we could envision the Pacific pattern (-EPO/+PNA) becoming favorable for cold in the eastern U.S. in early-mid January, with the high latitude pattern (-AO/-NAO) becoming favorable for trapping the cold air in place in mid-late January. 

7Cl8lep.gif

AfeMH4p.gif

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

So we are still looking at cutter after cutter in January!? Happy New Year indeed! This winter is going to rock! :(

That would be a miller B with transfer to the coast. Western areas would get a big ice storm. The old GFS has this as a lake cutter, but still shows some initial CAD. 

**but of course this is too far out for the details, just having fun discussing the look. 

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