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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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45 minutes ago, Solak said:

18z GFS suppresses the 'Christmas' storm across Florida and OTS with no impact on the SE other than FL.

Yep.  Let's see if it stays there in a stronger STJ year. Cold suppression of a system would not be what I think happens very much in  a mod. el nino 

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On 11/22/2018 at 12:29 PM, NC_hailstorm said:

Pattern can produce if the Solar/QBO signal is favorable which it is.It can produce in early December just like it did in late March.

 

I'll stick with this.Solar wind is running 391.8 over the last 60 days,EEP levels still low no big geomagnetic activity.QBO at -9.67 at 50mb,better chances for lower heights/trough in N America.Anyone else notice the big rainfall totals across the country this year?Solar min also increases the cosmic rays and that increases the cloudcover on the globe.That in turn increases the rainfall where the low heights/trough set up.Cosmic rays have been hitting hard for close to a year and it's not a coincidence in my opinion.

 

 

 

60dTDeptUS.png

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32 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I'll stick with this.Solar wind is running 391.8 over the last 60 days,EEP levels still low no big geomagnetic activity.QBO at -9.67 at 50mb,better chances for lower heights/trough in N America.Anyone else notice the big rainfall totals across the country this year?Solar min also increases the cosmic rays and that increases the cloudcover on the globe.That in turn increases the rainfall where the low heights/trough set up.Cosmic rays have been hitting hard for close to a year and it's not a coincidence in my opinion.

 

 

 

60dTDeptUS.png

Great posts on the solar man. I think you and someone else had mentioned the solar output associated with the weather. I think there is more to that than a lot of people realize. 

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The latest 18z GFS would confirm Allan's thoughts. But the good thing is Christmas is looking cold (40s for highs 20s for low). For me that's good enough.  Lets hope it hold true. 

Agree Falls.  Just would like to build a fire

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4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

You could just warm your hands by the dumpster fire that’s looking to take place between now and end of January!

There's definitely nothing to look at for the next couple of weeks. The latest 6z GFS would have lows ~freezing with highs in the 40s/50s for Christmas Eve day (not Bad). But Christmas Day would have highs in the 50s/60s. Not horrible, but it wont feel in the season if that run verifies. 

Edit: FV3 would be a little colder with a CAD setup. Still nothing wintery but a colder Christmas Day. **still a few more days until the models start settling on an overall pattern look. 

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35 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Lol... just a week before our storm showed up on the models you guys were freaking out about dec cancel and a never ending torch pattern.  

 But I think we did have better blocking in place and forecasted. We could get lucky and sneak in an event but most likely we’ll stay in this relaxed pattern for another two to three weeks. 

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Notice the VP200 tropical forcing(MJO) weakens or stalls when the solar wind/EEP peak every 20 days or so.There is research that shows solar indirectly driving MJO as well in winter months.

Solar is overall low at the moment(391.6 last 60 days) but every 20 days or so the coronal hole orbits around and that's when you have the spike for 6-10 days.Let's see the evidence.

Pay attention to the dips around Oct.7th-Oct 15,Nov 5th-Nov 15,And Dec 7th-Dec 13th.

Solar wind on the October days- 463,546.5,504.5 397.5,424,520.5,610

November-  565,467.5,426,466,431,552.5,569.5,593.5,485.5.  November actually had 2 coronal holes and these 2 dips match up perfectly.

December- 420,510.5,589.5,599,502,404,364

Almost a perfect match going by the solar wind/EEP levels when observing tropical forcing.So going by the pattern the MJO should have a brief stall/weaken then pick up steam soon but the next coronal hole orbit is Dec 30th and where ever the MJO is then it will stall and weaken again most likely.

Anyway just my opinion.

 

 

Dud355bUUAECIut.jpg large.jpg

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