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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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8 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Models have been trying to kill that western ridge for over a month. It never disappears for more than a couple days. We may hit some transient mild periods but I see no major torch in the near future

Sounds plausible.  Uptick last week of Dec maybe

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11 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Models have been trying to kill that western ridge for over a month. It never disappears for more than a couple days. We may hit some transient mild periods but I see no major torch in the near future

I wasn't implying that I was hugging the d16 GFS operational map. Just that we really want the EPO- dump to head this way and not out west.

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The developing west based weak to weak-mod Nino (from a check of the latest global SST map) has already produced a memorable STJ storm via the splitflow and +PNA pattern. Combining this with the low sun spot activity is going to lead to a memorable winter IMO. It's hard to prove the correlation at this point, but I think lower sunspot activity will lead to more SSW's in the future and -AO  tendencies. If we are on the cusp of a SSW (this is traditionally hard to forecast accurately), there will likely be some record cold in January when you combine it with the PNA setup.

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36 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The developing west based weak to weak-mod Nino (from a check of the latest global SST map) has already produced a memorable STJ storm via the splitflow and +PNA pattern. Combining this with the low sun spot activity is going to lead to a memorable winter IMO. It's hard to prove the correlation at this point, but I think lower sunspot activity will lead to more SSW's in the future and -AO  tendencies. If we are on the cusp of a SSW (this is traditionally hard to forecast accurately), there will likely be some record cold in January when you combine it with the PNA setup.

Of course this is out in la la land, but the 12z GFS shows that cross polar air at the end of its run. That's some cold air spilling into North America:

 

aaaa.jpg

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The tropical forcing is now centered in the western Indian Ocean.  If we keep with the current cadence, it should reach the western hemisphere by early January (Phase 8), which, if timed with a weakening stratospheric polar vortex, would give valid reasons to be optimistic for a wintry January.  Paul Roundy has a nice tool for visualizing the pattern produced for each MJO phase...not just for the month, but also for each week of the month - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html 

For the rest of December, I think getting a winter storm is going to require more luck than normal.

35Y2r3L.png

Rjw1fyH.png

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Yeah, it looks like we're going to have about a 3 week break and recuperation period at least.  I need the sleep! lol. 

Last week in December, looks like the -EPO is just trying to get going again.  Still needs work though.  Hopefully early January we can get the blocking back established, and we can get this nino show back on the road. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Yeah, it looks like we're going to have about a 3 week break and recuperation period at least.  I need the sleep! lol. 

Last week in December, looks like the -EPO is just trying to get going again.  Still needs work though.  Hopefully early January we can get the blocking back established, and we can get this nino show back on the road. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

Would be nice to have a dry period too-I need about that much time to dry out.  We need no more rain!

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More wet on the way.

A 50kt LLJ ahead of this 
system will transport abundant Gulf and Atlantic moisture (and a 
warmer airmass that will preclude any p-type issues) northward 
across the Carolina's, which will set the stage for a potential 
moderate to heavy rain event that will begin Friday morning and last 
through Saturday. Today's 12Z guidance package would suggest a 1-2.5 
inch QPF event, however it's worth pointing out that the latest 
ECMWF is wetter, esp across the eastern portion of the state. Given 
these sorts of potential rain amounts, combined with melting snow 
across the norther Piedmont, the risk for an areal and then a river 
flood event looks quite possible.
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28 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'll believe the SSW stuff when it actually happens. Every year since 2010/2011, there is talk about it happening based off long range modeling and it never materializes.

Yeah I'm not counting on that....what I'm counting on is the nino tropical forcing pushing us back in an -EPO pattern, getting the MJO back in the western hemisphere. Hopefully nino climo will win out and we can get a little blocking in greenland, which I think was also important to the last storm we just had.  We had just enough. 

In any event, keeping the attack on the vortex whether or not it's a SSW can't hurt.  

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