Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This is going to be a problem. If you look closely you can see that butterfly in Washington State flapping its wings a little too quickly; really need that thing to wait until that low off Alaska moves a bit closer! Sorry, couldn't resist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 It’s one scenario based on the Op but we have got to have the primary stop it’s trek in TN and have the secondary lock in as quick as possible. Taint galore will occur if we can’t get the darn primary to halt the brakes. We’ll see what the GEFS says later. Good to see it coming in quicker for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 This is a big run for the Mid Atlantic Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: This is a big run for the Mid Atlantic Forum. Good ! They never get snow! Hug the GFS, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Week a way models will flip and flop for days nothing to get excited over till wed-thurs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Even with the miller B the gfs is a huge hit for NW NC and SW VA. Front end snow then either sleet or ZR lots of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Ukie has a 1037 high over the Great Lakes at 144 with a low in far South Texas. Heights might be a tad lower in NC compared to 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 00z GEFS Mean looks slightly improved from previous run. It’s slightly colder and a touch more south with the low. It must have some more suppressed members in there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 *makes plans to blow up the SC snow shield* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GEFS snow clown map moved south on this 00z run compared to 18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GEFS snow clown map moved south on this 00z run compared to 18zWas just about to post this mean snowfall ranging from 5-8 inches across all of WNC. Pretty big increase in overall amount of snowfall too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 FV3 at 138 isn’t as sharp with energy in Southwest compared to 18z more broad like euro not gonna guess on outcome but it’s not a bad trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 FV3 has primary up into east central TN with secondary transfer occurring off hatteras. edit: secondary looks to form over inland SC and then traverse over hatteras and east northeast from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Definite trend from all 00z op runs so far for a miller b. Still not sold one way or another personally. One positive trend from both gfs runs was quicker ejection of shorthwave . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 ^ Yeah some suppressed members in there for sure Upstate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Good ! They never get snow! Hug the GFS, lol Well, in their defense, the past two winters have had them almost driven insane from lack of snow. I wish there was a way that we could both store instead of them trying to pull it north and us trying to pull it south. This one is academic for me, since eastern NC was never in the game. Maybe next time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ Yeah some suppressed members in there for sure Upstate I’m just gonna say that if E2 verified, I would never wish for snow again and would never complain again!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I’m just gonna say that if E2 verified, I would never wish for snow again and would never complain again!! E12 would make everyone happy. Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I’ve never seen that many ensemble members showing snow here that far out, and several are absolute crush jobs!!! They are a big hit for a lot of folks. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Unfortunately, the WxBell high snow totals bias may be in play...here's the College of Dupage Member Snowfall. In looking thru the individual member map progressions, I see 5 of 20 that are nice Miller A's. The rest are Miller B's with a wintry mix for the most part. Seems like a logical ratio at this point 15 Miller B to 5 Miller A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Grit, bring that Euro PBP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Unfortunately, the WxBell high snow totals bias may be in play...here's the College of Dupage Member Snowfall. In looking thru the individual member map progressions, I see 5 of 20 that are nice Miller A's. The rest are Miller B's with a wintry mix for the most part. Seems like a logical ratio at this point 15 Miller B to 5 Miller A I’m still good with e2! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Grit, bring that Euro PBP!! Euro out to 144 and it looks pretty good so far. Sfc high over S Wisconsin at 1037 and sfc low in SE TX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 58 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said: . Just another 50~100 miles, I'm game.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro out to 156. The wave is night and day diff from GFS. It's more of a broad slider compared to amped GFS. Sfc low in S LA and 1039 high over Michigan to NY...with wintry precip in N TN and NE GA into NC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Euro out to 156. The wave is night and day diff from GFS. It's more of a broad slider compared to amped GFS. Sfc low in S LA and 1039 high over Michigan to NY...with wintry precip in N TN in NE GA into NC Sounds like more of an overrunning look? Thanks for all the input Grit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro out to 168 and it's very similar to the last run. Sfc low is in SE Bama. 1036mb high over the NE. 32 deg sfc contour is a little farther south this run in upstate SC. It's a mix south of 40 in W NC, snow to the north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1.75 to 2.00 inches of liquid precip that is all wintry from SC update thru southern piedmont of NC 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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