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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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Interested to see how this plays out, FV3 has consistently migrated towards more of a cutter or Miller b in last 4 model cycles. But eps and gefs look more like a classic Miller a type storm. Feel like early December climo favors WNC if we get Miller A look. Timing of the high pressure vs the storm will be key as well. We are far from final solution no matter what the outcome.

 

Many more opportunities later in December and early January when forcing becomes more favorable for Aleutian low/+PNA pattern + more favorable climo

 

 

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As usual, subtle changes in the height pattern make this an upper south vs mid-atlantic vs northeast storm. Pretty amazing how it’s there though run after run.  El Niño with a stout southern wave in split flow yields higher predictability (compared for example to northern stream waves diving down in fast flow)

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As usual, subtle changes in the height pattern make this an upper south vs mid-atlantic vs northeast storm. Pretty amazing how it’s there though run after run.  El Niño with a stout southern wave in split flow yields higher predictability (compared for example to northern stream waves diving down in fast flow)

9285672ab6a7ac845befe80a81d29ebd.gif

It appears the confluence in the north begins to move out as shortwave moves eastward. The speed of the s/w will be key to low track it appears. If the low is inland over GA this will be a mid-Atlantic storm. No way any model will get timing right this far out.......



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36 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:


It appears the confluence in the north begins to move out as shortwave moves eastward. The speed of the s/w will be key to low track it appears. If the low is inland over GA this will be a mid-Atlantic storm. No way any model will get timing right this far out......

Yeah and if you go back and look at the 18z run, when our wave moves into west Texas, the 500mb height lines to our north are running from Chicago to DC. On the 00z run at the same wave location, the height lines are running from Chicago to New York City.  That difference is all it takes to get the low and associated warming to climb north

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0z euro is a huge hit for western part of NC 32 degree line is just west of CLT when heavy precip moves in. Not looking at soundings this far out but Weatherbell snow map is drool worthy for my area. Looks like classic miller A El Niño storm


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1 hour ago, HKY1894 said:

0z euro is a huge hit for western part of NC 32 degree line is just west of CLT when heavy precip moves in. Not looking at soundings this far out but Weatherbell snow map is drool worthy for my area. Looks like classic miller A El Niño storm


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Why am I not surprised? We lose the GFS and gain the Euro. They are like an old married couple and can't agree on anything!

But seriously though I'll take the Euro at this range. As I stated yesterday it's time for the Euro op to hit if this threat is for real!

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

*angry disappointed growling*

Again just for fun, but check out Pivotal weather snow depth at day 264. Shows your area with some decent snow. This type of setup can produce for eastern areas of the Carolinas. Too bad the look is not for a few days out.  

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

 

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