griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Euro Ens mean looks maybe a touch south of its previous run overnight. Not amped up like today’s Op run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Euro control run goes bonkers. Wow. Speechless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstatescweather Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just a little bonkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 56 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Euro control run goes bonkers. Wow. Speechless. I know you can’t show it but can you describe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 "Control" yourselves! Lol. The EPS did stay on the more southern route, which is encouraging. Does anyone have the control map they can share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Means went up this run too. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Southern Track said: I know you can’t show it but can you describe it. It’s only good for NC, don’t get real excited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Notice the last couple of sentences from the GSP NWS discussion. ”LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Thursday: Starting at 00Z Monday with the 500mb pattern showing a broad trough across the nation with axis from the Dakotas to Texas or New Mexico. An upper low moves from the Dakotas Sunday evening to Missouri on Monday afternoon to Ohio Tuesday afternoon. This creates a tight height gradient over the SE States with strong jet stream flow overhead. Waves of energy pass through the 500mb flow from the upper Plains to the mid Atlantic coast through mid week although the models are not in the best agreement on timing and strength of these waves. At the surface, the GFS has our area mostly dry except for occasional NW Flow for the NC mountains. The ECMWF develops low pressure at the inflection point on the east side of the upper trough along the stalled front over the northern Gulf Coast Sunday night. The EC moves this low to the SC coast Tuesday morning then off the NC coast Tuesday night. Cool high pressure builds in from the west late in the week. The EC seems to be performing best in the later periods recently. We will lean heavily toward the EC. Max Temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above normal on Monday then dropping behind the low with Maxes around 10 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday. Mins around 10 above normal Sunday night then around 8 degrees below normal into late week. The EC and GFS have an interesting feature to watch for the end of the week. The models show a low reaching our region on Saturday from Texas. This will be watched closely for consistency.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Insert other media COLD Nation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Euro Control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Good short term trend on the EPS. Wave in the southwest is farther south. Some increased ridging in western Canada. Less southeast ridge. Lowered heights over the NE. Those are all good. No improvement over Greenland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 ^ I don't see distinct positive trends on the GEFS...it's more neutral with trends. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 ^ It's funny the GEFS was bonkers on the threat yesterday, especially at 12 and 18Z. Then last night, the individual members just diverged. I guess that's to be expected at long leads though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Don't we sometimes see a cutter come thru a couple days before a larger Miller B type storm? Are the two related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Looks like the 18z run is going to be quite wintry on Dec 8th. Low in Louisiana and 1040+ high over upper midwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Looks like the 18z run is going to be quite wintry on Dec 8th. Low in Louisiana and 1040+ high over upper midwest And a more amped PV in SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Looks like the 18z run is going to be quite wintry on Dec 8th. Low in Louisiana and 1040+ high over upper midwest That’ll get her done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 The high never plows east in tandem with the low on the GFS like it did in Dec 2002 so it's a bit warm outside of the mtns and northern NC, but big storm and good look overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Wow what a storm! Taken Verbatim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Taken Verbatim, it snows IMBY for 24+ hrs. So nice, yet so far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Can’t remember the last time there was a signal like this in early December - it’s nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 go look at the 6th member of the EURO ensemble... cant post pic but that would be a storm for the ages... 12"+ for almost all of NC and even I get a few tenths!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 The clowniest clown map that ever clowned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Meanwhile, the Wednesday clipper was pretty robust this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Thor said: The best kind of fake news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Meanwhile, the Wednesday clipper was pretty robust this run. Yep, trying not to look at the day 8/9 storm. So for the Wednesday potential, the 18z GFS has a large area of north/central NC with 1-2". Surface temps don't look great, so I would say if we can see snow fall from the sky with this event that would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Banana high! It's peanut butter jelly time! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The clowniest clown map that ever clowned So will this be Mother Nature's apology for the last early December threat of snow in 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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