JoshM Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 One thing I can count on every season is the Canadian and it's fake cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 48 minutes ago, griteater said: Holy cow grit, you're a wizard. Very interesting and educational. Thank you so much for that massive response. I'll have to read it a few more times for sure. So, on the hovmoller chart, we'd like to see more browns around 120° E rather than all the alternating to settle into our Nino pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 30 minutes ago, JoshM said: One thing I can count on every season is the Canadian and it's fake cold. Get those temps and 18z GFS storm, and we are golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Get those temps and 18z GFS storm, and we are golden! Glad you said 18z... 0z was trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 6z GEFS favoring a southern NC plains track with our d8/9 system (and cold air is already cleared out by the time the LP comes around). EPS has the system but also too warm for anything interesting. Still lots of run-to-run variability though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, ajr said: 6z GEFS favoring a southern NC plains track with our d8/9 system (and cold air is already cleared out by the time the LP comes around). EPS has the system but also too warm for anything interesting. Still lots of run-to-run variability though. The EPS looked great to me!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 There was 8 EPS members that showed a warning criteria event at 0z. 20 or so showed at least a trace of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 8 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Swing and a miss on the 9th Storm... Great Lakes low #next I assume you said this in jest.....it's still 9 days away so it's anyone's guess at this point. All the models have been hinting at something during this time. Once we're inside a week, maybe then we can start to analyze the situation a little closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Both GEFS and EPS were further south than their respected operational runs. Hope remains alive for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 8 hours ago, Jonathan said: Holy cow grit, you're a wizard. Very interesting and educational. Thank you so much for that massive response. I'll have to read it a few more times for sure. So, on the hovmoller chart, we'd like to see more browns around 120° E rather than all the alternating to settle into our Nino pattern? Thank you, and yes on your question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: The EPS looked great to me!? I only saw the mean... looks like individual members are interesting though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 hours ago, GreensboroWx said: I assume you said this in jest.....it's still 9 days away so it's anyone's guess at this point. All the models have been hinting at something during this time. Once we're inside a week, maybe then we can start to analyze the situation a little closer. Yeah well, since @mackerel_sky was not on at the time, I said it for him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 clipper on the 5th with a shot at snow showers for central nc. past few gfs runs have beefed up qpf for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 really gets cranking on the back half, plenty of time to go still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: really gets cranking on the back half, plenty of time to go still. I was thinking we'd see a colder solution with the low being over LA this run. We'll see, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: really gets cranking on the back half, plenty of time to go still. An El Niño Split Flow Miller A, what a beautiful site 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: I was thinking we'd see a colder solution with the low being over LA this run. We'll see, I guess. really not too far off from a decent storm, and not far off from nada. at least we have something to watch. and i tihnk the small event next weds needs to be watched too. those usually can catch us by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, Thor said: Positive sharp Wake County gradient sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 CMC has a southern system as well - temps are sketchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 12z Data So Far Suggesting a Southern Mid Atlantic , Upper SE Winter Storm. Still way to far out to be specific. One things for certain, it does look like a Storm will be close around the 8th-10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Canadian agrees with GFS on timing and Precip types for 8-10th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Eric Webb @webberweather 1h1 hour ago Verbatim, this is the kind of pattern you want to see for an overrunning/Miller B event in the Carolinas, w/ a -EPO, California s/w, & a deep SE Canada vortex. Oth, details matter a lot in determining whether a legitimate threat for wintry wx actually materializes late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, griteater said: An El Niño Split Flow Miller A, what a beautiful site Right?, I saw this, didn't even see the precip types but just said...that's beautiful. Man I hope it happens, but yeah we're just so early. And early climo too. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: Right?, I saw this, didn't even see the precip types but just said...that's beautiful. Man I hope it happens, but yeah we're just so early. And early climo too. We'll see. FV3 looks similar to this, with the HP a few ticks stronger. beautiful site this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: FV3 looks similar to this, with the HP a few ticks stronger. beautiful site this early. If the low tracks completely offshore and up the coast (think the Coastal Crusher in January), we all would be in for a treat because we wouldn't have to worry about any warm nose, WAA, or mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thor said: Euro Hopefully the ensembles still show it as a southern slider. Apps runners are no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Hopefully the ensembles still show it as a southern slider. Apps runners are no bueno. How long before the ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: How long before the ensembles come out? Around 3:30 give or take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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