Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[mackerel_sky]

Euro weeklies really, really suck! They are hardly ever right!

[WidreMann]

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I don't know why all models are jumping ship because the El Nino has weakened on the surface, but it has strengthened in the subsurface. My research shows that the subsurface is more important. 

Subsurface says we're going to an east-based Nino. But still weak.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is actually more west-based, if you use Standard Deviation. 

[WidreMann]

12z Euro shows broad trough returning to eastern half of the country. This has been consistent. Pretty big 850 neg deviations. GFS also shows this. After that, who knows.

[Waiting on snow]

57 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro weeklies really, really suck! They are hardly ever right!

I agree. But if there is any way possible for the se to be warm we will find it.

[WXinCanton]

3 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

CFS is garbage so completely ignore it this time around... EPS had a garbage run so it is highly suspect, go look at the post Big Frosty put in the Sanatarium channel for a detailed outlook

Where is the Sanatarium channel?

[Cold Rain]

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro weeklies really, really suck! They are hardly ever right!

Thursday called and wants it’s breaking news back!

[ajr]

The past two runs of the GFS have a potentially interesting setup around Dec 5

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1067012888756396033

 

so much for the blowtorch Christmas 

[gman]

29 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1067012888756396033

 

so much for the blowtorch Christmas 

So, it’s going to be colder for Christmas?

[FlatLander48]

2 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1067012888756396033

 

so much for the blowtorch Christmas 

You should probably read his tweet... they're flip flopping back and forth with no reliable solution yet.

[gman]

45 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

You should probably read his tweet... they're flip flopping back and forth with no reliable solution yet.

I did read it, but to me blowtorch means warm (hot). I read it as going from warm back to cold. 

[Jonathan]

So, our elusive Modoki Nino is off the table. That is pretty much set. Now I'm reading the Nino itself is basin-wide and now getting into moderate to possibly strong territory? Is that correct? If so, that is a MAJOR bummer for us.

Also, look at all these cutters with the "OMGOMGOMG WE GOTTA HAVE -NAO FOR SNOW IN THE SOUTH". We should all now learn that a -NAO isn't as important as the +PNA/-EPO combination. The Pacific RUINS cold patterns in the east way, way more than the Atlantic does.

[CaryWx]

51 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

So, our elusive Modoki Nino is off the table. That is pretty much set. Now I'm reading the Nino itself is basin-wide and now getting into moderate to possibly strong territory? Is that correct? If so, that is a MAJOR bummer for us.

Also, look at all these cutters with the "OMGOMGOMG WE GOTTA HAVE -NAO FOR SNOW IN THE SOUTH". We should all now learn that a -NAO isn't as important as the +PNA/-EPO combination. The Pacific RUINS cold patterns in the east way, way more than the Atlantic does.

I'm not seeing all that just yet.

[Jonathan]

13 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I'm not seeing all that just yet.

It's definitely happening. This is already moderate bordering on, and heading towards, a strong basin-wide Nino.

Now I guess we hope other favorites override it during winter? 

[FallsLake]

Well to add to the bummer news, the indices don't looks as good in the LR. But to be fair, they can't stay great continuously.

PNA - Looks to go negative in the LR - BAD

AO - Looks to go towards neutral

NAO - Looks to go towards neutral

EPO - Looks to go positive after going negative in the medium range

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

 

Not a good look for cold in the SE. 

 

 

[Waiting on snow]

20 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Well to add to the bummer news, the indices don't looks as good in the LR. But to be fair, they can't stay great continuously.

PNA - Looks to go negative in the LR - BAD

AO - Looks to go towards neutral

NAO - Looks to go towards neutral

EPO - Looks to go positive after going negative in the medium range

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

 

Not a good look for cold in the SE. 

 

 

Is anyone really surprised? Wouldn't be a se winter if we didn't start meteorological winter with crap staring at crap in the long range.

The cold forecasts are starting to unravel quick. Basin wide moderate El Nino is not good for the Pacific pattern and models are now adjusting to that.We'll be flooded with mild Pacific air regardless of the Atlantic side. After all this is the south and there are too many ways to have a mild pattern over a cold one.

[Cold Rain]

Hahahaha

[FallsLake]

Day 10 on the Canadian has a good cold setup.  Looks like coast to coast cold with a pattern that could produce a SE winter storm. Who knows..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112612&fh=240

 

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Hahahaha

?

[Cold Rain]

Just now, cbmclean said:

?

People already hanging off the edge of the cliff with one hand on November 26.  I could see that maybe, if we're staring down a torch at the end of December after a mild month.  But on 11/26????!!  That's definitely funny.

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

People already hanging off the edge of the cliff with one hand on November 26.  I could see that maybe, if we're staring down a torch at the end of December after a mild month.  But on 11/26????!!  That's definitely funny.

I agree it's a bit premature.  But I can understand the psychology of it.  For some it is a lot less painful to expect the worse and maybe be pleasantly surprised.

[Cold Rain]

5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Day 10 on the Canadian has a good cold setup.  Looks like coast to coast cold with a pattern that could produce a SE winter storm. Who knows..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112612&fh=240

 

It's a cutter pattern.  Trough axis is mainly in the west and tilted back toward the SW.  You have a decent look for AOB normal temps in the SE, but if a storm forms, it's a cutter.  No confluence in the NE, no blocking, main trough too far west, etc.  GFS actually looks a little better at D10.  What you would want to see in this pattern is a trailing wave after a rainer which develops on the tail end of the front.  Then, we could get a little something.

Regarding the general pattern progression, there really isn't anything that suggests December is going to go warm in the means or feature a complete lack of winter weather chances.  Most forecasts that I saw called for the month to be warmer than normal.  So this notion that winter forecasts are busting all over the place doesn't really hold water.  If there is anyone expecting December to be cold and snowy all through the month, then their expectations are way out of whack.  There isn't anything that suggests an overly cold or warm month right now.  And I haven't seen any patterns yet show up in the models that are of the torch variety and that can't be pretty easily fixed.  Sometimes, every variable is wrong.  That takes a long time to work out of.  That is certainly not the case at this point.  December should be variable, with maybe a slight lean toward cooler than normal.  That's my guess.

[mackerel_sky]

25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

People already hanging off the edge of the cliff with one hand on November 26.  I could see that maybe, if we're staring down a torch at the end of December after a mild month.  But on 11/26????!!  That's definitely funny.

I hate a premature evacuation, but I’m looking over the cliff right now, and I only got one good shoe on... the other is a furry Croc! Atleast this week is going to be a little below normal!! Winning

[WarmNose]

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

I hate a premature evacuation, but I’m looking over the cliff right now, and I only got one good shoe on... the other is a furry Croc! Atleast this week is going to be a little below normal!! Winning

How bout that 12z GFS run last night? Woo wee. Teeth chattering cold. I better go add some insulation to the underbelly of my house 

[Waiting on snow]

34 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I agree it's a bit premature.  But I can understand the psychology of it.  For some it is a lot less painful to expect the worse and maybe be pleasantly surprised.

Exactly! I'm actually a very optimistic person over things I can control. But winter weather in the south is not something you'll ever see me optimistic about. I've lived in SC my whole life and seen every thing that can go wrong go wrong. It's climatology. Every dream pattern in the long range usually flips and there is always a fly in the ointment. I'm sure GSP to RDU will get a winterstorm. We usually do. El Nino Decembers are usually milder. I get that. But anyone seeing where this El Nino is heading has to be concerned. Going from a weak Modoki to a moderate/strong basin wide is a game changer. The Pacific pattern is very hard to flip once it gets established. 

[griteater]

2 hours ago, Jonathan said:

It's definitely happening. This is already moderate bordering on, and heading towards, a strong basin-wide Nino.

Now I guess we hope other favorites override it during winter? 

Today's NOAA reading is up to +1.3 in Nino 3.4, and more warming is likely over the next 2 weeks due to enhanced westerly winds east of the dateline.  However, these SSTs will rise and fall over time as part of the back and forth with ENSO.  IMO, it's highly unlikely that this reaches strong El Nino status which I would define as at least 3 consecutive tri-monthlies of +1.5 or higher.  Even if it were to somehow get that high, strong El Ninos have typically been on the cold and wintry side for us.  It's the super ninos that have predominately been warm and less wintry (years like 97-98 and 15-16).

[SnowNiner]

40 minutes ago, griteater said:

Today's NOAA reading is up to +1.3 in Nino 3.4, and more warming is likely over the next 2 weeks due to enhanced westerly winds east of the dateline.  However, these SSTs will rise and fall over time as part of the back and forth with ENSO.  IMO, it's highly unlikely that this reaches strong El Nino status which I would define as at least 3 consecutive tri-monthlies of +1.5 or higher.  Even if it were to somehow get that high, strong El Ninos have typically been on the cold and wintry side for us.  It's the super ninos that have predominately been warm and less wintry (years like 97-98 and 15-16).

Thanks Grit.  I remember you posting those stats a year or so ago about El Ninos and which ones where snowy for us.  I remember being surprised that IIRC strong ninos were actually the snowiest for clt.  In any event, like you said we're probably not getting to strong nino anyway. Are we losing the modoki aspect of it though? 

[NorthernUpstateSC]

Just about everything I have read or heard since early fall was close to normal temps in December and progressively getting colder in January & February. With February being the coldest month of all 3. It is just November 26th most on here have already seen below normal temps for most of the month with another cold week coming this week and already there has been two ice events in NC... Not bad for November and really see no reason to even think about cancelling winter before it has even started...

[griteater]

15 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Thanks Grit.  I remember you posting those stats a year or so ago about El Ninos and which ones where snowy for us.  I remember being surprised that IIRC strong ninos were actually the snowiest for clt.  In any event, like you said we're probably not getting to strong nino anyway. Are we losing the modoki aspect of it though? 

There's so much warmth extended to the west, even west of the dateline, that's it's difficult for the SST base readings to not be at least somewhat in the west-based or modoki camp....but overall, I'd say it's not clearly in the west-based or east-based camp when you look at the recent SST images.  Atmospherically, the VP pattern associated with the MJO has been very active since late Sep, so we don't have a clear signal on the base of the nino from that standpoint either.