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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

2" is not a significant event. There has only been two warning criteria events at PTI before 12/10 since, well, a very long time. 

That December 2002 event, may have been 90% sleet and ZR, I think CLT and N and NE of there , got a burst of heavy snow at onset? It was still a significant event! I never saw 1 snowflake, but was the worst ice storm I have ever seen!

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3 hours ago, GunBlade said:

CLT is an enigma that seems to take even more things going “just”right.  We are either just a few miles too SE to be cold enough to get a winter storm.  Or, we are just too far NW to get in on the main precip when we have the cold. 

I don’t have the data to verify but I’d wager that places like Shelby which is barely west from here gets more wintery  precip than us.  Or at least more storms where they get wintery precip.  

I myself am only about 15 miles (by car) from downtown CLT and there have been multiple times when CLT gets more than us.  Being SE has helped us a few times with coastal bombs as well though.  In general its normally either I-85 or I-77 though that is the dividing line and it’s usually a VERY sharp fall off.  And those merge in CLT.  Same happens with many CAD events.  

I’ve seen it snowing on upper levels of high rises but be raining at the ground level because the cold air is that close.  Very frustrating at times.

Try GSP sometime! CLT gets more than us bc you're closer to CAD s, closer to Atlantic moisture from Noreasters, and gets better timing with overrunning events, even though we're slightly higher elevation and only like 20 miles further south. GSP is a freaking snowhole for the ages compared to everyone around us (except south of course). For that CAE gets the dubious honor.

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36 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Try GSP sometime! CLT gets more than us bc you're closer to CAD s, closer to Atlantic moisture from Noreasters, and gets better timing with overrunning events, even though we're slightly higher elevation and only like 20 miles further south. GSP is a freaking snowhole for the ages compared to everyone around us (except south of course). For that CAE gets the dubious honor.

Yeah CAE no doubt is horrible. I lived there 5 winters. 13-14 was my first and it gave me false hope. Every other year was a dumpster fire and looking back at records it's always been that way.

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7 hours ago, Poimen said:

Regardless if we get something in the medium range, the big positive in my mind is that we are starting this winter with some robust blocking. I think that’s a good signal for the winter as a whole. 

Yea we’ve seen in years past that these things can be very stubborn to budge.  We chase the indices all winter as well only for them to not move in our favor.  Hopefully it’s the same when they are in our favor haha.  

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1 hour ago, DixieBlizzard said:

So, Glenn Burns throws this on Facebook last night. He can't even get his description right (Calls colder temps a "blowtorch") and doesn't give any explanation that this isn't an official forecast. I thought @Lookout would appreciate this.

burns.png

I'm not sure he was completely awake when he wrote that.  Something is confused in there somewhere.  The model has been forecasting a blowtorch winter all summer and fall.  Either it is coming in line with the rest of the seasonals and that's what he's pointing out, or it has been showing a blowtorch and continues to show a blowtorch, in which case it is correct and everything else is sucking.  I'm not entirely sure which option he's going with.

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Eric Webb @webberweather 5h5 hours ago

 
 

This is about as classic of a synoptic setup as you'll ever see for in-situ CAD in the Carolinas. Some of the same areas affected by last week's ice storm and the blue ridge escarpment should closely monitor for light-moderate amounts of freezing rain Fri night & early Sat. #ncwx

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1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Eric Webb @webberweather 5h5 hours ago

 
 

This is about as classic of a synoptic setup as you'll ever see for in-situ CAD in the Carolinas. Some of the same areas affected by last week's ice storm and the blue ridge escarpment should closely monitor for light-moderate amounts of freezing rain Fri night & early Sat. #ncwx

Bring it on :)  IMO it's going to be a great winter with a lot to track

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34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s the South, we take whatever small chances we can, no matter what time of year! I get as excited about a sleet pellet in November , as a full blown blizzard in February! The chances of either , are 0.00013%! :(

Hey mack, I understand what CR is saying. If you look at the latest day 10-12 on the 18z GFS you can see how the pattern is setup just too far to the north. The indices are looking great but we could easily still miss any winter storm chances in the next two weeks. We got to get those highs and lows just a little more south/east.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112018&fh=222

    

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55 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s the South, we take whatever small chances we can, no matter what time of year! I get as excited about a sleet pellet in November , as a full blown blizzard in February! The chances of either , are 0.00013%! :(

I hear you.  I’m not poo pooing the chances of snow or sleet.  I’m just saying what would be an awesome to have later in the winter.  Where we might squeak out a little surprise ice pellet now, we would clean up later.  That’s all I mean.

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hey mack, I understand what CR is saying. If you look at the latest day 10-12 on the 18z GFS you can see how the pattern is setup just too far to the north. The indices are looking great but we could easily still miss any winter storm chances in the next two weeks. We got to get those highs and lows just a little more south/east.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112018&fh=222

    

Climatology says that's probably correct. Regardless of the indices it just usually does not snow outside the mtns this early.

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