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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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58 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Sleets not bad its the leaves on the trees guna have major power problems if it's predominately zr. Sleets like gravel tbh easier to brake on vs snow ice anyway what about a thread guys who guna bring the mojo as in a nice cold rain lol

Agreed.  Issue is if you get sleet then ZR on top of it and the roads will be a literal ice rink.  And if enough ZR power lines and trees down etc... as well like you mentioned.  In my mind getting both is the worst case scenario. 

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Today's indices (similar to yesterdays):

PNA - Looks to be ~neutral in the LR

AO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR

Overall a great setup, not sure what the optimal configuration is for the SE; whereas do we want the PNA to be more strongly positive over the NAO and AO being strongly negative.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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Just now, FallsLake said:

Today's indices (similar to yesterdays):

PNA - Looks to be ~neutral in the LR

AO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR

Overall a great setup, not sure what the optimal configuration is for the SE; whereas do we want the PNA to be more strongly positive over the NAO and AO being strongly negative.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

If the PNA goes positive and all other factors hold course it will be perfect 

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I'd go PNA and AO.  You can have a -NAO and -AO but if you get a screaming pac jet, you'll be enjoying a nice cool rain, at least outside of the mountains.  You need a delivery of cold into the US.  -PNA is a direct way to do that.  The -NAO is icing and will lock it in and slow the storm track, if it's configured the right way.  The -AO (and also a -EPO) will tend to seed the source region with cold so that it can be delivered into the US.

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

I'd go PNA and AO.  You can have a -NAO and -AO but if you get a screaming pac jet, you'll be enjoying a nice cool rain, at least outside of the mountains.  You need a delivery of cold into the US.  -PNA is a direct way to do that.  The -NAO is icing and will lock it in and slow the storm track, if it's configured the right way.

So the gold mine is a triple negative? 

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

I'd go PNA and AO.  You can have a -NAO and -AO but if you get a screaming pac jet, you'll be enjoying a nice cool rain, at least outside of the mountains.  You need a delivery of cold into the US.  -PNA is a direct way to do that.  The -NAO is icing and will lock it in and slow the storm track, if it's configured the right way.

Lol..you just beat me to it CR. 

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I personally worry about it being strongly negative though, referencing the NAO. My interpretation is it needs to be slightly to moderately negative to be on the money, however I would much rather have it in the negative than positive, which we have had to deal with almost every winter. Beggers can’t be choosers. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I personally worry about it being strongly negative though, referencing the NAO. My interpretation is it needs to be slightly to moderately negative to be on the money, however I would much rather have it in the negative than positive, which we have had to deal with almost every winter. Beggers can’t be choosers. 

It's not binary (as in strongly negative vs. slightly negative).  We like to use it as a general measure of wintry potential.  And it's fine to do that in a "general" sense.  But it's a lot more complicated when you get down to the details of a winter storm.  West vs. East-based, strength, change in strength, change in sign, orientation of the block, are all dynamic variables that matter.  You can get a big storm or a big bust with any combination of those, as there are other big pattern drivers acting at the same time.  But generally, a -NAO is what we want.  The rest of it becomes a game day decision.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Remember a few years back we kept seeing a terrible look to the PNA, AO, and NAO. The models also kept showing a warm LR look but as we got closer the cold held. -EPO saved the day, and it was by itself.  

That was 2014 if I recall correctly... I got a nasty ice storm but managed to get a good couple of inches of snow after that 

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

It's not binary (as in strongly negative vs. slightly negative).  We like to use it as a general measure of wintry potential.  And it's fine to do that in a "general" sense.  But it's a lot more complicated when you get down to the details of a winter storm.  West vs. East-based, strength, change in strength, change in sign, orientation of the block, are all dynamic variables that matter.  You can get a big storm or a big bust with any combination of those, as there are other big pattern drivers acting at the same time.  But generally, a -NAO is what we want.  The rest of it becomes a game day decision.

That’s actually a great explanation of this. Very detailed. Thanks for that man!

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's not binary (as in strongly negative vs. slightly negative).  We like to use it as a general measure of wintry potential.  And it's fine to do that in a "general" sense.  But it's a lot more complicated when you get down to the details of a winter storm.  West vs. East-based, strength, change in strength, change in sign, orientation of the block, are all dynamic variables that matter.  You can get a big storm or a big bust with any combination of those, as there are other big pattern drivers acting at the same time.  But generally, a -NAO is what we want.  The rest of it becomes a game day decision.

Yup great explanation.  We’ve seen big storms with terrible indexes but timing has to be PERFECT!  Getting more of them in our favor gives some more wiggle room to spare for potential storms. 

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8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

That’s actually a great explanation of this. Very detailed. Thanks for that man!

 

1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

Yup great explanation.  We’ve seen big storms with terrible indexes but timing has to be PERFECT!  Getting more of them in our favor gives some more wiggle room to spare for potential storms. 

No problem.  Yeah, I always equate it to the eye of a needle.  You're always threading the needle when it comes to SE winter weather, especially when it comes to a snowstorm vs. mixing events.  Having a favorable alignment of indexes gives you a bigger eye.  But you still need the thread and a steady pair of hands lol!

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Eric Webb @webberweather 1h1 hour ago

 
 

Whatever legitimate warm-up was supposed to occur after this week especially near the end of November into early December is progressively going down right the drain & may be limited to a day or two/ the half-width of a s/w ridge in the north-central US & southern Canada

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